India’s water steeling strategy to convert Pakistan into desert

The actual data on dams, either built, or to be built is with India. India would never disclose this information for fear of violation of the Indus Waters Treaty, as that would be a documentary proof against India for violation of the Treaty.

The Government of Pakistan should get this information through the agencies. Besides this, the Government of Pakistan, under the provision of the Treaty can officially demand the relevant data from India on all dams built on all rivers in occupied Kashmir. They can further ask where this huge storage water created in occupied Kashmir would be used besides the hydropower.

The waters of six rivers originating in occupied Kashmir, is diverted to Rajisthan to feed the Indra Gandhi Canal System. This is shear violation of the Indus Waters Treaty.

India is building dams in occupied Kashmir since for the passed more than 40 years. The flow of Eastern Rivers during the Rabi and early Kharif crops would be drastically reduced. Similarly, the flow of Chinab River and then Jhelum River is badly affected. The situation would be most serious by the year 2016 when India would build and complete the network of inter-connecting dams on six rivers. India would never give relevant information to Pakistan at all.     

However, rough indications calculated by me from “the rivers flow data compiled by IRSA” show shortages on the (Western Rivers plus the Eastern Rivers) as roughly about 50.473 maf during the low supply period. This shortage includes partly due to whether conditions and specifically due to the building of dozens of dams on six rivers and their tributaries. This proves India is steeling water to irrigate millions of acres of land. Such a vast area is not available in Kashmir. The water and power is used for irrigation in Rajithan.   

The Treaty allows India to build dams only to generate hydropower. This means the dam should only create dead storage with nominal live storage. A 2.85 maf of live storage is allowed on the Western Rivers and 1.34 maf on the eastern rivers. More live storage than 4.19 maf is violation of IWT.

Against this, the cumulative loss of water on six rivers is 50.473 maf as indirectly worked out by me from the river flow data collected by IRSA. The specific loss of water on the three Eastern Rivers has come to about 11.251 maf after the construction of 476 feet high Baglihar Dam on Chinab River.

The loss of water on the Western Rivers is 39.222 maf. The total loss of water comes to 39.222+11.251 = 50.473 maf. India is building Barsar Dam on Chinab River that is the tallest dam with a height of 829 feet that is about twice the height of Tarbela dam (450 feet). It will store a lot of live and dead storage on Chinab River. India should officially be asked to give data on dams.

It is learned from an occupied Kashmiri citizen that India is planning to build a 48 Km long diversion tunnel on the Indus near Kargil to divert the flow and change the course of the Indus River to feed the network of dams interlinking with one another so that the natural resources of water and power from occupied Kashmir is used in Indian territory.  The construction of tunnel  need  confirmation.

India is building a 22 Km long tunnel for Neelum Jhelum Project to divert water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan’s 930 MW Neelum Jhelum Project. India is also building the 690 MW Rattle hydroelectrict Power Project.

India has embarked upon the construction of a huge network of water storage facility, the National River Linking Projects at an estimated cost of about $ 300 billion likely to be completed by 2016. This includes the construction of Barsur multipurpose power projects, Siwal kot Dam, Dul hasti Dam, Dogar Dam, Gandhala Dam, Reoli/Dugli Dam, Sachkhas Dam, Tandi Dam, Telihg Tinget Dam, Seli Dam, Raoli Dam, Kirthal hydropower project and Pakot Dul Dam on Chinab River.

Dead storage created by dams in millions of acre feet built in occupied Kashmir is a loss of water to Pakistan once. One maf of water gives a benefit worth $ 2 billion. Suppose a medium sized dam creates a dead storage of 0.2 maf of water, then 50 dams on the average would create a dead storage of 10 maf or a loss of $20 billion to Pakistan. Dead storage should be limited.

 A diversion of 20 maf live storage would create a loss of $ 40 billion each year. No one knows what is actually happening in occupied Kashmir. The Government of Pakistan should know that this grave situation is going to bring famine conditions in Pakistan, specially in Rabi after the year 2016. Beside power shortage, there would be food shortage and famine conditions in Pakistan. WAPDA was established to create storage to meet water and hydropower needs of Pakistan but no dam is built after 1974. This shows WAPDA’s failure.

It is suggested that WAPDA’s head quarter must immediately be shifted to Islamabad like that of IRSA for close coordination with other concerned organizations. WAPDA’s water wing should be bifurcated from its power wing so that WAPDA concentrates on building dams, irrigation systems and drainage systems to reclaim saline lands.

Food production must be given top priority, and WAPDA must coordinate with PARC and the Ministry of Agriculture, and Ministry of Water, the Planning Commission, the IRSA and the other relevant provincial departments. It appears there is no one to take notice of the deteriorating land due to salinity, power shortage, water shortage, food shortage, rapid silting of reservoirs, and ignore building of the unique dam at Katzarah on the Indus 20 miles downstream of Skardu town. I discovered Katzarah dam site in 1962, and by Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team confirmed it in 1968. Please know why Katzarah Dam is ignored by WAPDA?               

Chart Showing Shortages

(Source: IRSA)

Indus 1994-95 73.943 (maf)	Jhelum 1992-93 32.000 (maf)	Chinab 1994-95 30.204 (maf)	Total Western Rivers 1994-95 136.147 (maf)
Indus 2009-10 58.035 (maf)	Jhelum 2009-10 21.039 (maf)	Chinab 2009-10 17.851 (maf)	Total Western Rivers 2009-10 96.925 (maf)

                                                                                                 

Western Rivers shortages

Between 1994-95 to 2009-10

136.147 - 96.925 = 39.222 (maf)

Eastern Rivers 1994-95 12.877 (maf)

Eastern Rivers 2007-08 1.626 (maf)

Eastern Rivers shortages between 1994-95 to 2007-08 12.877 - 1.162 = 11.251 (maf)

Total shortage Western and Eastern Rivers

between 1994-95 to 2007-08

39.222 + 11.251 = 50.473 (maf)