Intra-state and intra-province politics over dam building

Intra-state problems on dams building created by India

Pakistan faces two problems over dam building. The one is intra-provincial and the other is intra-state. The intra-state problem created by India in occupied Kashmir on dams building is mostly political. India is upper riparian, as all the six rivers originate from occupied Kashmir. Kashmir is under forcible occupation of 800,000 armed forces by India, therefore, India controls rivers waters by building dozens of dams and barrages on all the six rivers, (three Western rivers allocated to Pakistan and three Eastern rivers allocated to India). India is using water as a weapon of mass destruction against Pakistan besides creating Pak-Afghan issue on Kabul River water.

Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River

India is creating Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River water by building a dam in Afghanistan. This is with the intention to reduce water supplies in Kabul River that will seriously affect power generation at Warsak Dam, and reduce water supplies to Kabul River canal irrigation system.

 During the flood season, Kabul River overflows its banks and damages vast areas. This trouble is aggravated at Attock when floodwater from the Indus River flows into Kabul River as backwater flow inundating vast areas including Nowshera town.

 About 50 years ago, I proposed to build Mirkhani Dam on Chitral River also called Kunard River. In order to control floods in Kabul River, I suggested to by-pass the floodwater of Chitral River through a tunnel, falling in to the catchment area of Panjkora River for storage in Shigo Katch Reservoir. This will reduce floods in Kabul River,

 In 1960, I discovered Guroh Dop Dam site on Panjkora River that has a huge reservoir of 8.5 maf storage capacity called Shigo Katch. The Shigo Katch Reservoir would store about 3 maf of flood water of Panjkora River. This reservoir would also store the floodwater from Chitral River. This proposal will reduce floods in Kabul River and also avoid wastage due to floods.

The Government of Pakistan and Afghanistan have not yet taken Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River in the form of a Treaty. The project would produce about 2000 MW of hydropower in combination with Guroh Dop Dam. Pakistan is extremely slow to act, till crises develop. A water Treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan is very necessary to avoid future conflicts.

Dams building in occupied Kashmir     

 One is surprised that India is changing the natural course of the Indus River allocated to Pakistan by diverting its flow that is not permissible under the Indus Waters Treaty. India can only build low dams on run-of-the-river direct for power generation but not changing its natural course. High dams building are not desirable as they involve the creation of large “live storage reservoir for irrigation purposes”. Moreover, the creation of dead storage is loss to Pakistan as it holds more water in dozens of dams in violation of the Treaty. India is planning to build a tunnel from Kargil to use Indus River water. This needs confirmation.

 Similarly, it has built a 22 Km long tunnel for diverting Neelum-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan’s 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum Project. India is building a huge network of water storage facility comprising dozens of dams, the national river linking projects at an estimated cost of $120 billion likely to be completed by 2016.

 The linking of rivers involves the transfer of water from one river to the other. This is again violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. The linking of rivers includes construction of Basrur multi-power project, Siwalkot dam, Pakot Dul dam, Dulhasti dam, Dugar dam, Gondhala dam, Reoli/Dugli dam, Kirthal hydropower project that will tremendously decrease the flow of Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. India has also started work on Uri-1 and Uri-2 on Chinab River in addition to the already constructed 474 feet high Baglihar Dam. India is building the Uri power project to produce 240 MW of power.

India has started preparation for the construction of Bursar Dam that is a very high, big dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. The height of Bursar Dam is 829 feet with storage capacity of more than 2 maf of water and power generation of 1200 MW. India has also planned to build a 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric Power Project high dam on Chinab River.     

India has planned all this to destroy Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture by water terrorism. India has planed to convert the world’ largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the Indus basin into almost desert. India wants the people of Pakistan should starve to death. Hitler killed 6 million Jews during the world war II. India would kill 200 Pakistani without war but using water weapon for mass destruction. UN should take notice of it to avoid nuclear conflict in South Asia.

India holds Pakistan’s waters on all six rivers  

It is roughly estimated that India would be holding about 10 maf of water as dead storage in its dozens of low and high dams. This is a shear loss to Pakistan though it will be once. Moreover, it is alarming to observe that India would be storing more than 9 maf of perennial water as live storage for irrigation purposes. One maf of water is worth $2 billion. This means Pakistan has suffered a loss of $ 20 billion for the dead storage created by dozens of dams.

 Similarly, it is estimated that India will be holding more than 9 maf of perennial river waters stored in various dams. This is again a recurring loss of 9 maf of live storage each year to Pakistan. India is allowed under the Treaty to retain only (2.85+1.34)=4.19 maf of water. India’s share is 4.19 maf of water. India holds about 5 maf of extra perennial water of live storage for that India is not entitled. This is worth about $10 billion each year. In addition to this, India would immediately convert southern Punjab of Pakistan dry.  

The reduction of the above quantity of water is severely affecting irrigated agriculture in the southern part of Pakistani Punjab during the keen demand period as its share of perennial water is diverted by India. This part of Pakistan is deprived of at least 6 maf of its water share.

 In replacement to the waters of the Eastern Rivers diverted by India, the Treaty provides to create equivalent perennial storage water on the Western Rivers by building dams on the  Indus at Tarbela, and on Jhelum River at Mangla. This clearly shows, the exchange of water by giving gravity flow perennial water to India and in replacement Pakistan got perennial storage water that is subjected to reduction by silting and requires replenishment.

 As a consequence, Pakistan is entitled to receive recurring stored perennial water on Western Rivers to make up the deficiency of 6 maf water lost to silting. Pakistan therefore needs replacement of 6 of maf of storage lost at Tarbela and Mangla due to silting under the Treaty. Please refer to article XI (a) (3) and article XII (2) (3) of the Indus Water Treaty that clearly states “The rights and obligations of each party under this treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained therein, or by anything arising out of the execution of…”(XI) (3).

 The Treaty under article XI (a) “governs the matters incidental thereto” The silting of storage is a matter incidental thereto. The article XII (2) provides “to ratify the Treaty”.

 “The Treaty can be modified from time to time” XII (2) (3). This is necessary to always equate the storage water of Western Rivers with the perennial flow of water of the three Eastern Rivers diverted by India. This equating balance is the crux of the Treaty. The IWT states in its para XI (3) that “The rights and obligations of each party under this Treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained in or by anything arising out of the execution of, any agreement establishing the Indus Basin Development Fund.

Pakistan lost 6 maf of replacement storage water that needs replenishment  

During the past 36 years, the perennial storage water from Tarbela and Mangla have silted up by 6 maf. Pakistan has permanently lost perennial stored water or the “replacement water under the Treaty”, and requires its replenishment under the Treaty. Silting matter is incidental. Pakistan has the right for its replenishment otherwise waters from the three Eastern Rivers be restored as on August 15, 1947. Alternately, India should arrange 6 maf storage water lost to silting. India must stop building dams to make available 6 maf of water. India has retained dead storage as well as live storage that adversely affect Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture.           

Treaty or no Treaty, the international laws on water for lower riparian safeguards the water rights of the people of Pakistan that used water for 150 years from these rivers through head works that now the British unjustly gave it to India and sown the seed of permanent conflict.

The building of a dam by India for Afghanistan proves that India has bad intentions against Pakistan and wants to destroy its irrigated agriculture to create famine in Pakistan. India should know Pakistan would never tolerate that its people should die of hunger. India is therefore imposing nuclear war. This nuclear war will not be one sided like the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This war will kill most of 1.4 billion people of the sub-continent.

Nuclear war will destroy earth’s environment simply because the British drew a wrong line to bifurcate the sub-continent and unjustly helped India by handing over the head works of canals to destroy Pakistan. The Indian army about 800,000 soldiers well equipped are stationed in occupied Kashmir and holding it by force.

India refused to implement the UN resolution for referendum. Kashmir rightly belongs to Pakistan, as it is a Muslim majority area and all rivers originate from Kashmir but the British played a political role to hand it over to India by sowing the seeds of conflict. The British handed over the head works of canals to India in a wrong and unjust partition.

Besides Kashmir, India occupied the states of Junagarh and Manawadar, and the state of Hyderabad Daccan forcibly.

India has no principles and would never settle the issue of water that is linked to Kashmir. India would be responsible for imposing a nuclear war or as I foresee would compel the hungry of Fata, Afghanistan and Pakistan to enter India in search of food with a force of suicide bombers and hundred thousands of fierce and formidable gorilla fighters trained in war against Russia whom it defeated and now are involved with USA and Pakistan. These peoples can go any-where they like. They can cause damage not less than any bloody war. Pakistan suffered tremendously at their hands because we sided with USA.  A quick and meaningful settlement of Kashmir is in the interest both neighbours. This will also solve water issue.

Intra-provincial politics over building of dams

Pakistan is the most unfortunate self destroy country in the world. It has stuck itself in the quagmire of intra-politics over the building of dams irrespective of the technical merits of a dam and its benefits to the nation. Pakistan gave no less loss to its irrigated agriculture than India who built dozens of dams. Pakistan built no big dam after 1974 that is 36 years ago. This resulted in crippling load shedding and water shortage. Pakistan has suffered a loss of $50 billion on account of load shedding and would suffer more each year.

WAPDA created status quo on an infeasible Kalabagh Dam

WAPDA and Punjab created status quo to build the most highly controversial dam at Kalabagh. Kalabagh Dam is a tailored one selected at random and the project consultants were restricted not to change the design or site of the dam but follow their instructions in the tailored TOR. The Consultants were instructed to do as WAPDA wants to do. This is something criminal and unprofessional.

 WAPDA kept the feasibility report of Kalabagh Dam secret from the provinces for its obvious faults. It was Khalid Aziz the then Chief Secretary directed WAPDA to submit the KBD Project report to the Government of NWFP. It was found from the feasibility report that the hydraulic design and height of the dam was wrong and technically unsound. WAPDA dictated the Project Consultants to provide restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design but the consultants recommended unrestricted low-level sluicing design as silt would rapidly be deposited upstream of the Attock gorge and backwater flow in Kabul River will inundate Peshawar valley.

 The unfeasible hydraulic design given by WAPDA would only generate 1450 MW of hydropower, therefore the consultants were advised to provide 2000 MW of thermal power plant to support hydropower.

The consultants advised WAPDA to raise a hydraulic structure up to only 160 feet, as Kalabagh Dam foundation is weak. WAPDA insisted to provide 260 high Dam so that a left bank canal with a length of 1500 miles is taken to feed the Mangla command system.

The dam is designed for an earthquake intensity of 7 on Rector scale but an earth quake of 8.4 was experienced in the area in 2005. Besides the above, there are many more flaws in the project. WAPDA and Punjab even then insisted to build it. This created status quo. Therefore, no new dam was constructed though feasibility of Basha Dam was prepared in 1981. The unique 35-maf Katzarah Dam, with 15,000 MW of hydropower and a life span of 1000 years was ignored.

Alternative to Kalabagh Dam

I have suggested an alternative to Kalabagh Dam by changing its height, hydraulic design by providing unrestricted low-level sluicing hydraulic design in the shape of a barrage placed over a low dam. The new site would be shifted 4 miles on the upstream of Kalabagh Dam site on the Indus. The low dam will store dead storage and the barrage would store live storage besides regulating silt and water. Storage in the new proposal will be with in the valley. No land acquisition is needed, no land compensation. No area is inundated and no backwater flow. The water and power benefits of this proposal would be more than two times of the Kalabagh Dam with no silting problem, no backwater flow and long life span. The barrage-cum-dam will act as balancing reservoir for Tarbela to produce additional power when required and store the released water again. There is solution to every problem provided one seeks it. 

Water Accord 1991 not implemented that created provincial water dispute

The Ministry of Water and Power did not build storage dams for implementing paras 2, 4, and 14 (e) of the Water Accord because of the status quo on Kalabagh Dam by the Government. Water Accord para 2 has distributed 117.35 maf of perennial flow between the provinces against the available perennial flow of about 105 maf diverted into the network of canal system in 1991 at the time of Water Accord preparation.

 Water Accord para 4 provides to create the balance storage by storing flood water to make up the deficiency of (117.35-105)=12.35 maf. Due to decrease in rivers flow, the perennial flow of 105 maf is now reduced to 96 maf. This created an additional  shortage of water of (105-96)=9 maf. The total shortage of water in para 2 comes to (117.35-96)=21.35 maf.

 Water Accord para 13 directs IRSA to implement paras 2, 4, and 14 (e) of the Water Accord. In spite of all this, the Government ignored to implement Water Accord and did not create the storage of 21.35 maf to implement paras 2 and 4 as well para 14 (e).

 Over and above this, we have already lost 6 maf of water due to silting of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma barrage. The lost water is replacement water that needs replenishment under the Indus Waters Treaty. Therefore, Pakistan should have built storage dams to create (21.35+6)=27.35 maf of water. Alas! No one bothers in Pakistan for its people who suffers at the hands of India as well as Pakistan.

There are no dam sites in Pakistan to store 27.35 maf of water except Katzarah Dam. The only river in Pakistan is the Indus where water can be stored. There are no storage dam sites on Jhelum River and Chinab river in Pakistan. All such dam sites are in Kashmir, and India is making use of it and Pakistan is gasping on looker.

Katzarah the unique dam site on the Indus intentionally ignored creating sever power and water shortage.

During the period from 1959 to 1961, I discovered 12 multipurpose mega dam sites in Pakistan. The preliminary feasibility reports of all these dams were submitted to WAPDA, the Ministry of Water and Power, and the Ministry of Agriculture but no action was taken by any body for decades.

I discovered a unique dam site at Katzarah on the Indus in 1961 about 20 miles downstream of Skardu town when its population was hardly about 3000 to 4000 people. Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team confirmed Katzarah Dam site in 1968.

 Katzarah Dam site is unique in the world for its many unique features. Katzarah has the narrowest dam site in the world. It is only 200 to 250 feet wide at riverbed level with almost vertical gorge. Katzarah would be the tallest dam in the world with a height of about 1250 feet. It has a storage capacity of 35 maf, one of the largest in the world and 5 maf more than that of Hoover Dam or Boulder Dam on Colorado River.

 The storage created by Katzarah Dam is six times the storage capacity of Basha Dam or Kalabagh Dam. Its power generation capacity is about 15,000 MW. Its life span is about 1000 years. It will irrigate a barren area of about 6 million acres of land in all the four provinces. It is a super flood control dam.

Katzarah’s cheap hydropower will irrigate higher lands by lifting water and will be used to run sprinkler and drip irrigation systems efficiently. Katzarah is the cheapest dam in the world per maf of storage water and per MW of hydropower.

The specific, unique feature of Katzarah Dam is that it will control the flow of silt carried by the Indus water that rapidly silts all the downstream reservoirs. Tarbala Dam is silted by 5 maf with in 36 years. Basha Dam whose life is estimated to be 80 years will be prolonged up to 800 years if Katzarah Dam is built in time.

 The source of silt flow in the Indus water is the Skardu valley whose soil is highly erodible. This soil will come under reservoir and silt flow from soil erosion will stop.

Katzarah Dam due to its huge storage capacity and long life span will serve as a carryover dam, water shed management dam, water management dam, super flood control dam, irrigation dam, replacement dam, power generation dam, and environment mitigating dam.

 Katzarah would serve as climate change mitigating dam, a dam for raising artificial forests to reduce the injurious affects of carbon-dioxide. Katzarah Dam will replace 6 maf of storage lost due to silting and also implement the Water Accord requirements of 21.35 maf of water.

All dam sites on the Indus River on the downstream of Basha Dam have small storage capacities ranging between 3 maf to 4 maf. Katzarah is the only unique dam site on the Indus.

Survival of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan to avoid famine.

Most of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture is destined to become a desert by design because India is storing, diverting river waters by changing its natural courses and building dozens of dams including very high dams on all the six rivers that originate from Kashmir. The climate change will aggravate shortages of water. The rapid silting of reservoir will reduce the storage water. The “no building policy of dams” by Pakistan will add fuel to the fire.

Integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) a dire necessity

Big dams are the component of integrated comprehensive water management. Pakistan has not yet planned to carry out Integrated Comprehensive Water Management to save 50% or about 45 to 50 maf of water wasted due to seepage and system wastages in the 150 years old and obsolete canal irrigation system that needs modernization. The water wastage is about 50 % of canal withdrawals. There is no control over floodwater for lack of storage.

Absence of Drainage system to control salinity

 The drainage of land is an integral part of ICWM. The world’s largest contiguous canal irrigation system has no drainage system to remove injurious salts out of the area, control water table and maintain salt and water balance. The one million small tube wells pumping about 45 to 50 maf of injurious groundwater drainage effluent are destroying fertile lands gradually and invisibly as no sub-surface tile drainage system - a vital part of irrigation system, is provided to control salinity, sodicity and water logging. Besides this, the world’s largest canal irrigations system has no support of a big dam to regulate flow of water as required.

In a period of about 25 years, most of land in the Indus basin would turn saline, population would touch a figure of 350 million people and India would dry a good part of all river flows to Pakistan. Besides crippling load shedding, Pakistan would face deadly famine due to shortage of water. The only way to save the situation is that Pakistan must get Kashmir to get control over the flows of rivers that originate from Kashmir. Besides this, Pakistan must build Katzarah Dam as a component of water management and water shed management. Drainage of land is vital to protect land from salinity, sodicity and water logging. If lands go saline then there is no need to build dams to store water, as water would be useless for saline lands.

Modernization of the obsolete and wasteful canal irrigation system

 Pakistan must modernize its obsolete canal irrigation system to avoid wastage of water of about 45 to 50 maf by undertaking water management true to its technical definition as given by ADB or the World Bank, and provide sub-surface tile drainage to remove, control salinity, sodicity and water logging. The other alternative left is to die of hunger due to famine.

 The UN and the world at large, specially, the USA and the British Government must take the issues of Kashmir and water seriously. History would blame British Government for wrong partition of the sub-continent and for initiating the killing of most of 1.4 billion population of this region if a horrible war starts on Kashmir and water.

 The UN is blamed for its ineffectiveness due to political reasons for not implementing its 60 years old pending resolution. Let the UN save the earth’s environment from radiation and destruction that could suddenly aggravate the climate change. Therefore, it is not the problem of India and Pakistan alone but it has become the problem of the whole world.           

                              

Small Dams VS Big Dams

Small Dams

It appears non-professionals have advised the President to build small dams, as big dams are controversial. This is not so. All big dams are not controversial, like Kalabagh Dam. The President may please get opinion from expert water resources engineers. Small dams do not serve our purpose, as they do not meet our requirements of huge power generation to end load shedding, control super floods to avoid devastation, and provide irrigation facilities to large new barren areas to feed the rapidly growing population. Moreover, small dams are short lived due to silting and cannot serve the said purpose. Small dams rapidly lose storage water due to evaporation and seepage. However, vegetable can be grown from its small quantity of water.

Small dams serve the purpose of drinking water. Small dams are useful as watershed management infrastructure to control soil erosion and stop silt flow. The capital cost of small dam is very high viz-a-viz its storage capacity, lifespan, and service value. Maintenance of small dam is costly. Small dams can never replace big dams. The function and purpose of small dams and big dams are different. About 1000 small dams are not equivalent to one big dam like Basha in service value besides its power generation and flood control capabilities. Small dams are part of water management for big dams. Small dams are no replacement for big dams. Big dams are unavoidable. It is wrong that all big dams are controversial.

Big Dams

Pakistan direly needs big dams to control super floods and avoid death and destruction as experienced this year. Pakistan needs big dams to generate cheap hydropower in large quantities to end crippling load shedding. Moreover, big dams are environment friendly as they turn desert areas into green fields and forests can be raised by the use of water from big dams.  Pakistan needs big dams to create huge storage for supporting the present irrigated areas and for irrigating large barren areas to produce food for the rapidly growing population. Pakistan needs big dams to implement Water Accord paras 2, 4, 6, and para 14 (e) to avoid inter-provincial water disputes. Water Accord could not be implemented for the last 19 years as no big dam was built. Pakistan needs big dams to conserve floodwater, going waste to sea each year. In the event of drought, the storage from big dams provide water for crops

Pakistan needs big dams to replace 6.6 maf of storage lost due to silting at Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs. Big dams are multipurpose and very cheap and give best service value as compared to the service value of small dams. Big dams regulate river flow, ensure irrigation water to large area, control super floods, and supply water for industrial and domestic uses. Big dams have long lifespan and great service value. Big dams bring economic prosperity and provide jobs for large number of people.

 Big dams run industries from its power generation. The present devastating flood that ruined nearly 25% of Pakistan teaches a lesson to go for big dams. Super floods can only be controlled by big dams. Pakistan needs big dams to replace storage lost due to silting under the Indus Waters Treaty. Pakistan needs big dams to produce hydropower. Water and power are natural resources on a river. These resources must be exploited by building big dams.  Big dams lay the foundation of strong economy and prosperity. Global warming, climate change and glacier melting need big dams to avoid catastrophes due to super floods.

     

Kalabagh Dam created wrong impression that big dams are controversial

                          

WAPDA created Kalabagh Dam controversy and long status quo for 46 years (36+10)=46 due to the selection of wrong dam site on the Indus. Besides this, WAPDA gave tailored TOR to the Project Consultants to achieve specific purpose of the left bank canal from a higher level for irrigating areas in Punjab. Moreover, Kalabagh Dam site has the poorest capacity-inflow ratio in the entire length of the Indus. Because of the poorest CI ratio, the reservoir will silt up with in 20 years. Besides this, silt will be deposited upstream of the Attock gorge that will create unacceptable backwater flow and flooding in Kabul River that will destroy Peshawar valley.

 The KBD Consultants advised WAPDA to build 100 flood days unrestricted low-level sluicing hydraulic structure like a barrage. On the contrary, WAPDA insisted for a wrong hydraulic design to provide 50 floods restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic structure to build 260 feet high dam. This will create rapid and heavy sediment deposition upstream of the Attock gorge and unacceptable backwater flow and flooding in Kabul River.

Big dams are the symbol of prosperity and economic development. Unfortunately, Kalabagh Dam created great fear in the province of Sindh because of the dam’s location to divert water from a higher level for specific purpose by Punjab. Punjab wants to take off a high level canal, 170 miles long on the left bank with a discharge of 15,000 cusecs to feed Mangla system.

The province of KP has shown fear that with the construction of Kalabagh Dam, Peshawar valley will be ruined by inundation due to backwater flow and flooding in Kabul River. The proof of inundation and ruination lie in the present flood devastation even without the dam.

 With the Kalabagh dam, that is lying on the down of Attock gorge, devastation would multiply. Kalabagh Dam recommended by the Project Consultants is run-of-the-river dam like a barrage. It therefore will not store water during floods. It therefore cannot give protection against super floods even to the downstream areas. Similarly, if WAPDA’s design of 50 floods restricted mid-level sluicing is followed, then Kalabagh Dam will be on run-of-the-river for 50 flood days. In any case, Kalabagh Dam will create sever backwater flow and flooding in Peshawar valley.

 After Kalabagh Dam, the flooding and inundation in Peshawar valley will be aggravated. Kalabagh Dam has become politically controversial due to hidden reason. For this reason, its feasibility report was kept secret from KP. It was declared as classified document. 

WAPDA should have asked the Consultants in the TOR to select the best multipurpose dam site on the Indus with long life span to give best service value.

WAPDA and Punjab determined to build Kalabagh Dam at all cost. WAPDA stopped searching excellent dam sites with best service value and long lifespan like Katzarah and Basha on the Indus and Guroh Dop on Punjkore/Swat Rivers. This resulted in crippling load shedding for long time with no relief. This also created inter-provincial water dispute due to scarcity of water as no dam is built to store floodwater that goes waste to sea each year.

Besides all this, the Kalabagh Dam Consultants stated that the foundation of the dam site is weak, therefore a hydraulic structure more than 160 feet high cannot be built at this site. On the contrary, WAPDA instructed the Consultants under the TOR to build 260 feet high dam.

Similarly, the power generation from the dam due to its wrong hydraulic design is only 1450 MW. WAPDA therefore instructed the Consultants to provide 2000 MW Thermal Power Plant to support low hydropower.

I may inform that all the big dams have no problem like Kalabagh. The Kalabagh Dam became politically controversial for its wrong site and wrong design. Moreover, it was being built for a specific objective.

Besides this, Kalabagh Dam is infeasible in view of the findings of the Kalabagh Project Consultants. Please refer to the feasibility report to verify these facts. No body seems to have read the 27 volumes of the Kalabagh Project report.

In the end, I strongly recommend to build Katzarah Dam, Basha Dam, Guroh Dop Dam and Kalam Dam without loss of further time. None of these dams are controversial. The building of these dams is vital because similar devastating super flood are predicted any time due to global warming, glacier melting and climate change. This time we must avoid similar devastation.

 Land compensation must immediately be paid to those who are displaced by the construction of big dam. Late payment creates problems. China rehabilitated 2.2 million people displaced by Three Gorges Dam well in time. There was no problem. We must follow this practice.

  Unfortunately, WAPDA declared to build Munda Dam with live storage capacity of 0.67 maf that is basically a power dam. The same dam with the same data is now declared as flood control. Chairman WAPDA stated that it will protect Nowshera and Charsadda from super floods. This is all ridiculous. A nominal storage of 0.67 maf cannot protect Peshawar valley where Kabul River was running a flood flow of 400,000 cusecs.    

Besides the above, please pay attention to the lurking catastrophes of water issue of Pakistan. These water issues are given in my website,  fatehuk blogspot.com              

Nuclear war on water rights in South Asia

Unjust partition of India by Britain created Water issues and Kashmir dispute

The British Government is blamed for the wrong partition of India and Pakistan by handing over Kashmir (the Muslim majority area) and the control of canal head works to India. This created water conflict. Wrong partition is the height of injustice in human history. It may lead to nuclear war if quick and lasting solution of Kashmir dispute and water issues are not found. The British cartographers failed to consider the-run-of-the rivers while partitioning the sub-continent. The control over the area where the water headwaters lie was unjustly given to India with the intension to sow the seed of conflict. The Indian armed forces about 800,000 forcibly occupied the Muslim majority area of Kashmir and killed hundred thousand people who want freedom.

 The irrigation from the Indus system of rivers is the lifeline of civilization in what is now Pakistan since 2600 B.C. The British have sown the germs of future conflict in South Asia. Water is the source for survival without which Pakistan will almost turn into desert and its 200 million populations would face famine and die of hunger.

Many experts fear that one day the dispute over water – already an incessant source of diplomatic skirmishes – will propel these two nuclear weapons states into all-out war if reasons fail to settle the issues of Kashmir and water in time. Kashmir where these rivers originate is vital for Pakistan, as it is a matter of survival for Pakistan.

 India planned to use water as a weapon of mass destruction silently by building dozens of dams and barrages, changing the natural course of rivers building  a huge network of water storage facility the national river linking projects to create shortage of water in Pakistan turning its millions of irrigated lands almost go dry. The people would starve and out of shear compulsion, this situation may lead to a nuclear war.

 India forcibly occupied Kashmir, Hyderabad Dacan, Junagarh and Manawadar states                             

Morally it is the British Government responsibility to pressurize India to vacate the forcible occupation of Kashmir. The ownership of the above three states should be re-established on the basis of population for the sake of peace in South Asia. Help of UN may be sought to solve water issues. Kashmir and water are not separate issues. This is because all of Pakistan’s water resources originate from Kashmir, a Muslim majority area forcibly occupied by India. The very partition of India was based on the Muslim majority or Hindu majority areas. Pakistan being a peaceful country kept quiet when Indian Army forcibly occupied the State of Hyderabad Daccan and the State of Junagarh and Manawadar that acceded to Pakistan– a Hindu majority areas but captured by India. India being unreasonable violated this principle by occupying both the Hindu and the Muslims majority areas. This shows India is aggressive and has no principles.

India violated UN resolution on Kashmir that created water issues

Again, India has refused to implement the UN resolution for referendum in Jammu and Kashmir for the last about 60 years. This created water issues. Indian army forcibly occupied Kashmir, killed hundreds and thousands of innocent Kashmiri. No one in the world raised voice to oppose the massacre. Coercion of this type leads to war.

India violates Indus Waters Treaty creating water issues and change in environment

Over and above, India is aggressively violating the Indus Waters Treaty. India is building dozens of dams and barrages on the three Western Rivers allocated to Pakistan besides building dams on the three Eastern Rivers allocated to India. India is storing water that adversely affects irrigated agriculture in Southern Punjab of Pakistan. India is violating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by changing the natural course of the Indus River allocated to Pakistan by diverting its flow through a 48 Km long tunnel near Kargil. This is unnatural, and is against the spirit of Treaty. India has created multiple water issues and changes in various regions and their environments.

 The Treaty only allows generation of hydropower on run-of-the-river through the construction of low dams and NOT by changing the natural course of the Indus River. Similarly, the Treaty does not allow to build 829 feet high Bursar dam and 475 feet high Baglihar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. India is also diverting the course of another river. A 22 Km long tunnel is to divert Neelum-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan’s 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum Project. India has taken in hand the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric Power Project with a high dam. 

The aggregate dead storage capacity created by all the projects is roughly estimated to be about 10 maf. The live storage created by all projects originating in Kashmir is roughly estimated to be about 9 maf. Such storage will further increase. The Treaty allows India to use 2.85 maf of water on the three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf of water on the three Easter Rivers. The total comes to 4.19 maf. Hence, India uses extra live storage waters of about 5 maf that comes to Pakistan’s share.

 This may still increase as many dams on all the six rivers are planned for construction. The benefits from one maf of water is equal to $ 2 billion. This means India inflicted a loss of $20 billion once for the dead storage and annual recurring loss of $10 billion for using perennial live storage water that belongs to Pakistan.

India has embarked upon the construction of a huge network of water storage facility, the national river linking project at an estimated cost of $120 billion likely to be completed by 2016. It includes the construction of Basrur multi-power project, Siwalkot dam, Dul hasti dam, Dugar dam, Gandhala dam, Reoli/Dugli dam, Sachkhas dam, Tandi dam, Teling Tinget dam, Seli dam, Raoli dam, Kirthal hydropower project and Pakot Dul dam on Chenab River. This is in addition to the already built 475 feet high Baglihar Dam and the proposed 829 feet high Bursar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. According to information, India is starting the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric power project high dam on Chinab River.    

In view of the above multiple injustices and deprivations, Pakistan will have to choose either to become almost a desert subjecting most of its 200 million populations to die a miserable death due to hunger or die in an imposed nuclear war. The result would be the elimination of most of 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent by a horrible nuclear war. It is therefore not good for India to fight a war of nerves but to make a just, quick and reasonable settlement of Kashmir that would solve water issue. If Kashmir issue is settled, then there will be no war but permanent peace and the two nuclear countries would prosper.

Famine due to shortage of water to create food riots

There is yet another impending danger of unrest when water shortage would cause famine  in Pakistan, Fata, and in Afghanistan. The danger is that the hungry tribal people of Fata, Pakistan and Afghanistan would try to enter India for search of food. There will be population movement in search of food involving change in environment. Hunger, ignorance and poverty would compel these people to restart terrorist activities once again if they do not get food. These people got training to fight Russians when Russia  attacked Afghanistan, and after the defeat of Russians USA has made the same mistake to fight them. USA also got help of Pakistan who suffered tremendously.

In Afghanistan and in Tribal areas of Pakistan, children born during war are born fighters that become terrorists due to hunger, illiteracy and poverty. These people are fierce and formidable born gorilla fighters. It is learnt they have still a force of 10,000 suicide bombers as they claim. These people would go after food and create chaos in India. Pakistan Army mostly Pathans fought these terrorists successfully as fighters on both sides are Pathans and are equally fierce and formidable Let us avoid this situation as it could be prolonged for 20 to 30 years as in Ireland and in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan. Afghanistan and Fata depends for food grains on Pakistan. Therefore, its irrigated agriculture should not be harmed to feed these people, and to contain them in their areas.   

Every new dam built by India aggravates conflict in South Asia. There is planned move by India to starve Pakistan by destroying its largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the world with the weapon of aquatic bombs. Water is the most political weapon and is the source of conflict in South Asia. A hungry man fights without caring for consequences. Many world powers feared the dispute would go towards nuclear war.

Over and above, the climate change would play havoc with irrigated agriculture. On the other hand, India has reduced the flow of rivers by building dozens of dams and barrages. Most of the rivers waters come from disappearing glaciers of Himalayas as these glaciers are extremely vulnerable to climate change.

It is estimated that the flow of rivers may reduce by about 40% in the second phase of global warming. The first phase of global warming is the melting of glaciers that would cause sever floods.

 Kashmir is a matter of life and death for Pakistan. Water issue and Kashmir cannot be separated. Pakistan cannot survive without these. May be the nuclear neighbours go to war. It is therefore necessary that international powers who share the earth with Pakistan and India should influence India to settle Kashmir issue as it is pre-requisite for solving water issue.

America the most influential and powerful State in the world who is friend to India and Pakistan must help solve the 62 years old Kashmir problem if it is interested to avoid nuclear war that would destroy the whole environment on earth. A settlement of Kashmir is also in the interest of USA and the whole world as war would destroy environment and trigger climate change in its worst form. The British Government who created this problem knowingly should help settle the issue of Kashmir and water by joining USA and other countries. These two nations along with the UN must negotiate to settle these problems.

Pakistan already suffers due to economic, water and energy issues. Moreover, fight against terrorists has caused the Government and the people a total loss of $35+15=$50 billion. This is besides about 3500 troops killed including Brigadiers. The number of injured is in thousands. About 50,000 civilians are killed and about 4 million populations have been displaced due to war. About 70% of houses, schools, hospitals, bridges and roads are destroyed. Due to scarcity of funds, Pakistan is using money reserved for its development. The world powers are not giving promised funds to Pakistan though war is thrusting on Pakistan. Pakistan is not fighting its own war but is fighting to save others. Pakistan is pushed in to a quagmire.

The intension of India is to throttle Pakistan by reducing its water so that Pakistan faces deadly famine along with crippling load shedding. Events and circumstances would compel Pakistan to fight a nuclear war for its survival irrespective of its consequences, as Pakistan would face death by famine or death by nuclear war. India is a country with extremist elements that do not care world opinion. It will continue building dams and barrages, continue forcible occupation of Kashmir against the wishes of the people and go on violating the Indus Waters Treaty and the UN resolution. India will violate international laws on water for lower riparian country. These are conditions for triggering war.

India has no intention to implement UN resolution on Kashmir so that water issue is solved. India does not believe in reasons and do not foresee the grave outcome of unsolved serious and chronic issues like water and Kashmir. Britain and USA must seriously pressurize India to hand over Kashmir to Pakistan to prevent nuclear war. India has already captured the two states of Hyderabd Dacan and Junagarh and Manawadar by force. Let the dispute be settled by a team of experts to avoid horrible war. 

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan should send shivers around the world as it would damage the whole environment on earth. After all, we are talking not only about the destruction of a continent but of the whole earth itself. This war will not be like the two mini atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by USA to stop world war II.

 There is a precedence of nuclear bombing, and this time dozens of powerful nuclear bombs would be used to destroy each other’s country and population. India would suffer many times more for its 1.2 billion populations, more industries, huge storage dams that would bring chaotic radioactive floods. It would be horrible. Therefore, the issue of Kashmir and water should not be pushed to climax. Safety of the sub-continent lies in settlement of all disputes.

 The sever radiation from nuclear explosions would cause catastrophic climate change on earth. Therefore, it is not a destructive war for Pakistan and India alone, but it will equally destroy countries on earth. I warn the UN and all countries of the world to help settle the issues of Kashmir and water. The UN resolution must be implemented.

 The Indus Waters Treaty should be modified as Pakistan’s water rights of perennial storage water must perennially be ensured to the limit that India diverted the perennial flow of the three Eastern Rivers. The silting of reservoirs in Pakistan is a continuous process. Pakistan will therefore permanently suffer due to the shortage of water on account of silting of its reservoirs. The problem will always stay alive. Over and above this, India has planned to cut off water supply from all the six rivers to convert Pakistan into almost a desert to starve its population. This is going to happen by the year 2016 as planned by India.

 As a consequence, a horrible nuclear war can be waged in self defense against water terrorism, alternately India may coolly ponder over the situation and gracefully hand over Kashmir to Pakistan in exchange for the two States of Hyderabad and Junagarh. We are neighbours and brothers, and therefore should do justice to each other for the sake of peace to achieve prosperity of the 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent.

 If Kashmir and water issues are not settled, the loser will be India who is planning to become world power. Pakistan is not in that class. It is immaterial for it to die of starvation or in a nuclear catastrophe. It will be in the interest of India and Pakistan to settle the issues of Kashmir and water gracefully so that permanent peace is assured in the sub-continent.

Nuclear conflict would destroy earth’s environment by radiation if water issues and Kashmir dispute not solved

The change in environment due to nuclear conflict will not be like the change in environment due to global warming, glacier melting and climate change on account of carbon emission. The routine climate change due to global warming will take a long time. Moreover, efforts are being made to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming and climate change.

 The change in environment due to nuclear conflict would be fetal and disastrous due to radiation. The radiation will kill people. Radioactivity will not only destroy environment of the sub-continent, South Asia, but of the whole earth. Increase in radiation will destroy most of the living creature on earth. It will kill animal life, plant life, marine life and the humankind. It will change the weather pattern. Rainfall would be radioactive. Radioactivity may even change the genetic of living creatures including humankind. It will create large scale abnormalities and diseases in living creatures. Man will misuse nuclear power for self-destruction. This would be most inhuman.

 The mischief-makers will destroy human race for politics and self-interest. Land will be unable to grow crops. Sources of drinking water will become radioactive. Humankind is one community, and the earth is the home of humankind. Let us not destroy our earth. Let us live like human beings and settle our disputes without war, as war is not paying. God inspired Conscience in man to know what is good for him and what is bad (Quran). All other creatures on earth have no Conscience, no Spirit but Life is common to all.      

Recommendations to Planning Commission on Water Issues

I bring devastating water and power issues to your personal notice crippling the economy of the country. You being head of the Planning Commission and your organization consisting of most highly educated, learned and experienced persons in every field are responsible for giving final approval to projects at ECNEC. This means PC accepts responsibility for correctness of the project planning concepts before giving final approval. The Prime Minister equally shares this responsibility with the PC. Multiple Water and Power issues are accumulating for the past 50 years. This is because, projects are not initiated, or wrongly planned, and executed. I therefore inform you of multiple crises accumulated since 1959.

 These crisis/issues are, water crises, power crises, land crises, rapid silting crises, super flood crises, water wastage crises due to obsolete canal irrigation system, crises due to absence of drainage system creating salinity, sodicity and water logging. It includes food and agriculture crisis, the natural surface drainage crises due to their blockage and encroachments and the crisis created due to wrongly conceived projects. My letter and its each paragraph will show you crises with facts. All Members of PC may discuss the crisis before passing them down. 

I am sure you and your organization will be shocked to know the hidden, the silent and the obvious crisis faced by the country even then most of us are unaware. WAPDA have brought the country to the brim of disaster. There is dire need to shift WAPDA Head quarter to Islamabad on the lines of IRSA so that it works closely with the PC, the IRSA, Water and Agriculture Ministries and others. This letter proves WAPDA has lost its professional ability.

As a first step remedy, I suggest to initiate building the 35-maf Katzarah Dam, generating up to 15,000 MW of power, controlling super floods in the Indus, irrigating 5 million acres of barren lands and controlling silt flow from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley. Katzarah will have 1000 years life span. Along this, build the 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam, with a life span of 800 years on Panjkora River controlling super floods in Kabul River. It will irrigate 50.000 acres of land, generating 500 MW of hydropower. Munda Dam urgently proposed by WAPDA, is NOT flood control, as wrongly claimed by WAPDA. If the above two dams are built, the water, the power, the super floods, the silting, the food crisis would over.

It is fantastic, and highly disappointing that WAPDA specially created for Water and Power development, is unaware of the two greatest multipurpose dams that would have avoided load shedding and 2010-flood devastation. Climate change can bring another flood any time.

 Please bring these devastating issues to the personal notice of the Prime Minister, as he is responsible, but is not in the know as WAPDA itself do not know.