Silting caused cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty besides its gross violations by India

The Indus Waters Treaty development reveals the eruption of grave issue leading to the cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty by silting. The IWT ceased to function as Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have lost 6.6 maf of Replacement storage due to silting. The lost storage is to be Replenished perennially by new storage to revive the Treaty to supply water through Link Canals to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is diverted by India due to wrong partition by the British. We claim that the wrong and unjust partition by the British be redone so that there is no water dispute after handing over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan to avoid nuclear war on water. Peace is better than war, life is better than death. Agreement on Kashmir, the source of water, on which Pakistan life and death depends is vital, otherwise nuclear war is hanging as the sword of Democles. 

Over and above the issue of silting, the blatant violations of the Treaty by India by building dozens of low and very high dams on all the six rivers and their tributaries exceeded the allowable storage limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. So far, these innumerable dams have approximately created 10 maf of dead storage and about 25 to 30 maf of live storage, depriving Pakistan of its water rights for Rabi and Kharif crops by violating the Treaty figure. More high dams are under construction. India is not releasing actual data of dead and live storage to Pakistan for the numerous dams India is building.

It is surprising to read John Kerry report while I have just written this paper on the IWT. John Kerry has cautioned water war in South Asia while sending report to US Senate in the context of IWT. I revised my paper on IWT giving John Kerry reference.

John Kerry report states that “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the region”

The consequence of violating IWT by India is that Chenab and Jehlum Rivers will turn seasonal, as they will not release winter supplies to Pakistan at crucial moment for Rabi and early Kharif crops. Pakistan would therefore NOT be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This will create famine conditions and food problem due to shortage of water at times when water is most needed.

Silting of reservoirs in Pakistan and violation of the Treaty by damming complete winter flow of all rivers in occupied Kashmir by India made the Treaty un-operative.

The rapid silting of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs built under the Indus Waters Treaty as Replacement storage have lost about 6.6 maf of the Replacement storage due to silting. This resulted in the cessation of the Treaty because Pakistan lost the very source of water for which the Indus water works comprising two dams and a net work of barrages and link canals were built to transfer water from one river to the other to irrigate lands in Southern Punjab. The perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers went to India under the Treaty along with the  canal Head works because of wrong and unjust partition of India by the British. With the silting of Tarbela and Mangla, the Indus Basin Works became un-operative and redundant. The un-operative Treaty can only be revived if new Replenishment storage is created on perennial basis as Pakistan gave perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. If India does not agree to bear the cost of new replacement storage dams then original supplies from the Three Eastern Rivers be restored to Pakistan, as was available before partition on 15 August 1947. Treaty or no Treaty the water rights of Southern Punjab cannot be usurped.

The objective in the Preamble of the Indus Waters Treaty automatically dies when Replacement storage is lost and is not Replenished perennially as Pakistan surrendered perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. The issue arises due to the wrong partition of India by the British who gave the source of waters to India, of lands that irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The British has sown the seed for conflict.

India has skillfully misused the Treaty by building dozens of dams to control the waters of the six rivers for use against Pakistan as a weapon of starvation and mass destruction. India is bent upon turning the world’s largest canal irrigation system in the Indus Basin into desert. India is using dams as water weapon to destroy Pakistan under the cover of Indus Waters Treaty by misusing it cleverly. Such situation as created can trigger nuclear water war.

Being Distinction Holder in Dams and Reservoir Engineering, I caught the Indian trick and therefore I disclose how India is using Dams and Reservoirs to deprive Pakistan of the flow of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers winter flows, turning them as seasonal rivers (Non-perennial) rivers for Pakistan. As such, Pakistan will not be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop.

John Kerry report cautions against war in South Asia

John Kerry, Chairman of the US senate Foreign Relations Committee, while releasing the report said “The Indus Waters Treaty may fail to avert water wars between India and Pakistan. He acknowledged that dams India is building in occupied Kashmir will limit supply of waters to Pakistan at crucial moments”. John Kerry said “The cumulative effect of these projects could give India the ability to store enough water to limit the supply to Pakistan at crucial moments in the growing season”.

But “experts question long term effectiveness in light of chronic tension between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, where a significant portion of the Indus River’s head waters originate”  The report further says “The IWT has recently been criticized for its “inflexibility” to adjust to changes in water levels. The experts are now questioning whether the IWT can adapt to these changes.” The report says “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the Region” DAWN (23.2.2011).    

Building series of Dams on six rivers used as weapon of starvation besides violating the Treaty

India has used gross available head of all the six rivers (head to tail) by series of dams using optimum slope potential with the intention to generate full hydropower and create large storage to hold as much water as possible. This is in violation of the Treaty as India far acceded the fixed limit of storing 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers. The reason for building dozens of dams is to harass Pakistan by destroying its irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin, that is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan. India has stopped winter flow to Pakistan specially of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers so that it does not grow Rabi crop and early Kharif. This will create famine conditions, and that is the basic source of terrorism besides fear of war.

 The second Indian objective is to transfer, full water and power resources, of occupied Kashmir to India. The natural resources of Kashmir are exploited by India.

Pakistan should have prevented India from building dozens of dams on the six rivers. It is estimated so far India has created about 10 maf of Dead Storage and 25 to 30 maf of Live Storage in violation of the Treaty and exceeding the limit of 4.19 maf to 35 to 40 maf (including 10 maf dead storage). This will further increase. The sleeping Pakistan could not prevent India from this skillful aggression in violating the Treaty.  It is very obvious that India grabbed Pakistan’s waters under the cover of Treaty. The Treaty has clearly restricted India not to exceed storage more than 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers (Three Western and Three Eastern). while producing hydropower. This condition in the Treaty restricts numbers of dams as well height of dam to keep aggregate storage not more than 4.19 maf on the six rivers.   

             

India built very high dams while Pakistan was asleep not realizing that India acceded the storage limit of 4.19 maf. More over, the Treaty does not indicate the diversion of water, from the catchment area of one river to the other by means of tunnels to produce hydropower and store water in another catchment area linking rivers. The building of innumerable dams create innumerable dead storage and live storage on the six rivers in occupid Kashmir violating the limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. India will continue building dams to store water and create dead and live storage till it reduces water supplies of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to 0 maf at crucial moment.

The construction of very high dam like the Barsar Dam 829 feet high, 475 feet Baglihar       Dam, and other dams are against the spirit of the Treaty as they create large dead and live storage that exceed the permissible limit. The spirit of the Treaty is to build low dam on run-of-the-river to produce hydropower and not to create illegal storage on the main stem of the river. The Treaty does not allow to stop winter flows of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers by building innumerable dams incessantly. The number of dams are restricted by fixing storage limit not to store more than 2.85 maf on the Three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf on the Three Eastern Rivers. The aggregate gross storage of 4.19 maf includes both Dead and Live storage.

Pakistan inert attitude to the implementation of Indus Waters Treaty

It is surprising and shocking that no one in Pakistan could understand Indian ingenuity and trickery of incessant building of dams under the cover of Treaty. This is with the intention not to allow a drop of water from Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to Pakistan so that famine like conditions are created for sowing Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This situation will create food shortage in Pakistan. The Indus Basin irrigation system is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA, and Afghanistan.

 However, FATA, Afghanistan and to some extent Pakistan are the strong hold of terrorists, suicide bombers and kidnappers, These terrorists will go in search of food to the adjoining countries. Food will not be easily available, as such, they will continue terrorist activities, kidnapping and suicide bombing. The people will remain jobless, hungry, no income, and  uneducated. These circumstances will make them terrorists and suicide bombers. These terrorists defeated Russia in 10 years long war, and destroyed Russia economically. America has committed the same blunder, and is destroying its economy fighting a senseless war with no hope to win. Pakistan is also destroyed simply because, it is fighting others war.

 The active war is fought by Pakistan, who suffered tremendously. War is a component of non-development. There is no development in Pakistan, no jobs, no earning, no education and extreme ignorance. To avoid war and terrorism, carry out development in irrigated agriculture by building dams to generate hydropower, and store water for agricultural development to produce food, create jobs, earn money, get education and be civilized. An educated man on job will never become a terrorist. As such Kashmir and water issues must be settled by the UN, USA, and UK as there is fear of nuclear war in South Asia as predicted by world renown politicians including US Senator John Kerry. UK made a mistake by wrong partition of India. This needs to be set right for the sake of peace in the world and justice and to avoid damaging Earth’s environment by nuclear radiation. This will be a horrible nuclear war that will agitate  and quicken Global warming and climate change.

Indian cleverness and Pakistan stupidity in dealing IWT

India being clever and devoted availed the services of its highly experienced experts in hydraulics and water resources development specializing in Dams and Reservoir Engineering to deal IWT. Similarly, India has availed the services of highly experienced legal experts and policy makers to handle the IWT. Moreover, the Government of India is highly concerned and alive to the implementation of IWT in a way to achieve its objectives of starving Pakistan to death by stopping the supply of water at crucial moment.

 The purpose behind the implementation of the Treaty is to avail full water and hydropower potential of occupied Kashmir and its six rivers by holding as much water as possible. This is with the intention to destroy the irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin under the guise of IWT. India harnessed optimum hydropower and created large storage to hold winter flows of the Indus, Chenab and Jehlum Rivers in occupied Kashmir. This is with the intention to use water as a weapon of starvation against Pakistan. India managed that Pakistan goes into deep slumber, not realizing that India silently built dozens of dams in about 40 to 50 years. Pakistan has no data of what India is building. Pakistan is unaware how much storage water India created.

Pakistan is stupid, as it remained unaware of India building dozens of dams in utter violation of the Treaty. Moreover, Pakistan never realized that the Treaty has ceased with the silting of Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs and that new storage as Replacement storage is needed so that the Treaty stays alive perennially as Pakistan handed over perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India.

Over and above, the stupidity, Pakistan committed blunder by appointing Kamal Majeed as advisor to the President on water though Kamal Majidulla is non-professional. He is illiterate to the technical issues arising out of IWT. He and his team are unable to handle the Treaty in the context of no knowledge of hydraulics and of Dams and Reservoir Engineering. Another surprising fact is that Majidulla in turn appointed two highly controversial legal experts who could never win the case. They were appointed for their own benefits and not in the interest of the case. This is treachery with the nation. One doubts they are sold to India or they are highly incapable and inert.

This is because, Majidulla overlooked URI-II hydropower project being built by India as an essential part of Kishanganga  project. India managed to complete the URI-II project without bringing it to the notice of Pakistan Commissioner Indus Water (PCIW). Pakistan could watch these activities through the satellite and through the agencies. Pakistan negligence will help India win the controversial Kishanganga in the Arbitration court. URI-I and URI-II will produce 240 MW of power with a concrete dam of 171 feet high. Majidulla and his experts were sleeping. URI-II will pick up the tail water to make use of gross head of about 130 M as available in the course between URI-I tail race outlet.

Pakistani experts inability to watch and interpret IWT

The essence of the Indus Waters Treaty is that Pakistan has surrendered the perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India that perennially irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan and in return Pakistan got two Replacement storage dams, one on the Indus and the other on Jehlum River with net work of Link Canals. The Indus Basin works are meant to transfer perennial water from the Replacement storage dams to irrigate lands in the Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The Replacement storage created at Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have been silted up by about 6.6 maf. Pakistan has lost Replacement storage. The effect of this loss of water on the Treaty is that it became un-operative. Southern Punjab has lost the source of water in a wrong and unjust partition.

 The consequence of the loss of Replacement storage is that Link Canals are not operative to transfer water to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is surrendered to India will become dry. This will create grave situation. Therefore, the loss of 6.6 maf water requires Replenishment by creating new storage perennially otherwise the Treaty ceases to function, when storage is lost and the Replacement Works become redundant. The Treaty can only be revived when equivalent perennial storage on perennial basis is arranged by India. For this, the Treaty needs modification and flexibility. Alternately, water from the Three Eastern Rivers shall have to be released by India as was available on August 1947.

 Besides the above violations , all other violations of the Treaty are to be set right by India. The Treaty requires to create new Replacement storage as Tarbela and Mangla has lost 6.6 maf of water due to silting. If this is not done, there will be no water for Rabi crop and early Kharif. Pakistan as well as FATA and Afghanistan will be subjected to hunger. This will give rise to terrorism and India will be responsible for that. The whole world will suffer due to spread of terrorism as hunger, no development, no jobs, no education in Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan  will be forced to become terrorist.

The responsibility will lie on India due to stopping Chenab and Jehlum Rivers water during winter for growing Rabi and Kharif crops by building dams and holding water in violation of the IWT and for the continued illegal occupation of occupied Kashmir. The UN will be responsible for not implementing its pending resolution for the last 62 years. I fear water aggression against Pakistan, may in the future, lead to war perhaps nuclear war. The problem in the sub-continent is created by the British because of unjust and wrong partition. This is a great inhuman act as the life of 1.4 billion people is exposed to nuclear war. The permanent and just solution to the water issue is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan and take over Hyderabad, Junagarh and Manawadar states so that nuclear war is avoided. As the UN did not bother to implement its 62 years old resolution indicate lawlessness at international level.

It is frustrating to know that there are no dam sites on Kabul River, Chenab River and Jehlum River in Pakistani territory to store floodwater. Pakistan has dam sites only on the Indus River and Swat River. India is playing even with the water of the Indus River.

The global warming and climate change will reduce rivers flow by about 40% by the year 2050. What ever water is available, about 50% of that is lost due to seepage in the 150 years old, incompatible and obsolete supply-based Canal Irrigation System. Moreover, climate change will also affect water availability. Therefore, there is urgent need to create flexibility in IWT by its modification. There is need to carryout modernization of the Canal irrigation system to demand-based system to save huge wastage of water. This needs Integrated Comprehensive Water Management (ICWM). The building of unique 35-maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River are very vital for the survival of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan. These two dams must be built on war footing.

I foresee Pakistan will be faced with another serious problem by the year 2080 when Basha Dam, Tarbela Dam, and Mangla Dam will all silt up. The Canal Irrigation System will then be on run-of-the-river. This means no water for Rabi and early Kharif crops. The situation will create famine conditions that will aggravate terrorism, as there will be no food. The remedy to control silting at its source is to build Katzarah dam, as it will submerge the world’s highly erodible soil in the Skardu valley. This will increase the life span of all the reservoirs downstream of Katzarah Dam.

I also fear super flood of 2010 intensity, may hit Pakistan any time. Munda Dam with live storage of 0.67 maf, planned as power dam by WAPDA is now wrongly claimed as flood control dam. The flood control dam is Guroh Dop Dam about 8.0 miles upstream of Munda Dam. The Ministry should not allow WAPDA to commit another blunder to the series of blunders it already committed of which the Government is unaware as in case of IWT. There is dire need to shift WAPDA Head quarter to Islamabad to be in close contact with the Planning Commission, Ministry of Water and Power and Agriculture, IRSA and other relevant organizations.                    

Silting caused cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty besides its gross violations by India

The Indus Waters Treaty development reveals the eruption of grave issue leading to the cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty by silting. The IWT ceased to function as Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have lost 6.6 maf of Replacement storage due to silting. The lost storage is to be Replenished perennially by new storage to revive the Treaty to supply water through Link Canals to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is diverted by India due to wrong partition by the British. We claim that the wrong and unjust partition by the British be redone so that there is no water dispute after handing over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan to avoid nuclear war on water. Peace is better than war, life is better than death. Agreement on Kashmir, the source of water, on which Pakistan life and death depends is vital, otherwise nuclear war is hanging as the sword of Democles. 

Over and above the issue of silting, the blatant violations of the Treaty by India by building dozens of low and very high dams on all the six rivers and their tributaries exceeded the allowable storage limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. So far, these innumerable dams have approximately created 10 maf of dead storage and about 25 to 30 maf of live storage, depriving Pakistan of its water rights for Rabi and Kharif crops by violating the Treaty figure. More high dams are under construction. India is not releasing actual data of dead and live storage to Pakistan for the numerous dams India is building.

It is surprising to read John Kerry report while I have just written this paper on the IWT. John Kerry has cautioned water war in South Asia while sending report to US Senate in the context of IWT. I revised my paper on IWT giving John Kerry reference.

John Kerry report states that “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the region”

The consequence of violating IWT by India is that Chenab and Jehlum Rivers will turn seasonal, as they will not release winter supplies to Pakistan at crucial moment for Rabi and early Kharif crops. Pakistan would therefore NOT be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This will create famine conditions and food problem due to shortage of water at times when water is most needed.

Silting of reservoirs in Pakistan and violation of the Treaty by damming complete winter flow of all rivers in occupied Kashmir by India made the Treaty un-operative.

The rapid silting of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs built under the Indus Waters Treaty as Replacement storage have lost about 6.6 maf of the Replacement storage due to silting. This resulted in the cessation of the Treaty because Pakistan lost the very source of water for which the Indus water works comprising two dams and a net work of barrages and link canals were built to transfer water from one river to the other to irrigate lands in Southern Punjab. The perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers went to India under the Treaty along with the  canal Head works because of wrong and unjust partition of India by the British. With the silting of Tarbela and Mangla, the Indus Basin Works became un-operative and redundant. The un-operative Treaty can only be revived if new Replenishment storage is created on perennial basis as Pakistan gave perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. If India does not agree to bear the cost of new replacement storage dams then original supplies from the Three Eastern Rivers be restored to Pakistan, as was available before partition on 15 August 1947. Treaty or no Treaty the water rights of Southern Punjab cannot be usurped.

The objective in the Preamble of the Indus Waters Treaty automatically dies when Replacement storage is lost and is not Replenished perennially as Pakistan surrendered perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. The issue arises due to the wrong partition of India by the British who gave the source of waters to India, of lands that irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The British has sown the seed for conflict.

India has skillfully misused the Treaty by building dozens of dams to control the waters of the six rivers for use against Pakistan as a weapon of starvation and mass destruction. India is bent upon turning the world’s largest canal irrigation system in the Indus Basin into desert. India is using dams as water weapon to destroy Pakistan under the cover of Indus Waters Treaty by misusing it cleverly. Such situation as created can trigger nuclear water war.

Being Distinction Holder in Dams and Reservoir Engineering, I caught the Indian trick and therefore I disclose how India is using Dams and Reservoirs to deprive Pakistan of the flow of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers winter flows, turning them as seasonal rivers (Non-perennial) rivers for Pakistan. As such, Pakistan will not be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop.

John Kerry report cautions against war in South Asia

John Kerry, Chairman of the US senate Foreign Relations Committee, while releasing the report said “The Indus Waters Treaty may fail to avert water wars between India and Pakistan. He acknowledged that dams India is building in occupied Kashmir will limit supply of waters to Pakistan at crucial moments”. John Kerry said “The cumulative effect of these projects could give India the ability to store enough water to limit the supply to Pakistan at crucial moments in the growing season”.

But “experts question long term effectiveness in light of chronic tension between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, where a significant portion of the Indus River’s head waters originate”  The report further says “The IWT has recently been criticized for its “inflexibility” to adjust to changes in water levels. The experts are now questioning whether the IWT can adapt to these changes.” The report says “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the Region” DAWN (23.2.2011).    

Building series of Dams on six rivers used as weapon of starvation besides violating the Treaty

India has used gross available head of all the six rivers (head to tail) by series of dams using optimum slope potential with the intention to generate full hydropower and create large storage to hold as much water as possible. This is in violation of the Treaty as India far acceded the fixed limit of storing 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers. The reason for building dozens of dams is to harass Pakistan by destroying its irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin, that is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan. India has stopped winter flow to Pakistan specially of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers so that it does not grow Rabi crop and early Kharif. This will create famine conditions, and that is the basic source of terrorism besides fear of war.

 The second Indian objective is to transfer, full water and power resources, of occupied Kashmir to India. The natural resources of Kashmir are exploited by India.

Pakistan should have prevented India from building dozens of dams on the six rivers. It is estimated so far India has created about 10 maf of Dead Storage and 25 to 30 maf of Live Storage in violation of the Treaty and exceeding the limit of 4.19 maf to 35 to 40 maf (including 10 maf dead storage). This will further increase. The sleeping Pakistan could not prevent India from this skillful aggression in violating the Treaty.  It is very obvious that India grabbed Pakistan’s waters under the cover of Treaty. The Treaty has clearly restricted India not to exceed storage more than 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers (Three Western and Three Eastern). while producing hydropower. This condition in the Treaty restricts numbers of dams as well height of dam to keep aggregate storage not more than 4.19 maf on the six rivers.   

             

India built very high dams while Pakistan was asleep not realizing that India acceded the storage limit of 4.19 maf. More over, the Treaty does not indicate the diversion of water, from the catchment area of one river to the other by means of tunnels to produce hydropower and store water in another catchment area linking rivers. The building of innumerable dams create innumerable dead storage and live storage on the six rivers in occupid Kashmir violating the limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. India will continue building dams to store water and create dead and live storage till it reduces water supplies of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to 0 maf at crucial moment.

The construction of very high dam like the Barsar Dam 829 feet high, 475 feet Baglihar       Dam, and other dams are against the spirit of the Treaty as they create large dead and live storage that exceed the permissible limit. The spirit of the Treaty is to build low dam on run-of-the-river to produce hydropower and not to create illegal storage on the main stem of the river. The Treaty does not allow to stop winter flows of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers by building innumerable dams incessantly. The number of dams are restricted by fixing storage limit not to store more than 2.85 maf on the Three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf on the Three Eastern Rivers. The aggregate gross storage of 4.19 maf includes both Dead and Live storage.

Pakistan inert attitude to the implementation of Indus Waters Treaty

It is surprising and shocking that no one in Pakistan could understand Indian ingenuity and trickery of incessant building of dams under the cover of Treaty. This is with the intention not to allow a drop of water from Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to Pakistan so that famine like conditions are created for sowing Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This situation will create food shortage in Pakistan. The Indus Basin irrigation system is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA, and Afghanistan.

 However, FATA, Afghanistan and to some extent Pakistan are the strong hold of terrorists, suicide bombers and kidnappers, These terrorists will go in search of food to the adjoining countries. Food will not be easily available, as such, they will continue terrorist activities, kidnapping and suicide bombing. The people will remain jobless, hungry, no income, and  uneducated. These circumstances will make them terrorists and suicide bombers. These terrorists defeated Russia in 10 years long war, and destroyed Russia economically. America has committed the same blunder, and is destroying its economy fighting a senseless war with no hope to win. Pakistan is also destroyed simply because, it is fighting others war.

 The active war is fought by Pakistan, who suffered tremendously. War is a component of non-development. There is no development in Pakistan, no jobs, no earning, no education and extreme ignorance. To avoid war and terrorism, carry out development in irrigated agriculture by building dams to generate hydropower, and store water for agricultural development to produce food, create jobs, earn money, get education and be civilized. An educated man on job will never become a terrorist. As such Kashmir and water issues must be settled by the UN, USA, and UK as there is fear of nuclear war in South Asia as predicted by world renown politicians including US Senator John Kerry. UK made a mistake by wrong partition of India. This needs to be set right for the sake of peace in the world and justice and to avoid damaging Earth’s environment by nuclear radiation. This will be a horrible nuclear war that will agitate  and quicken Global warming and climate change.

Indian cleverness and Pakistan stupidity in dealing IWT

India being clever and devoted availed the services of its highly experienced experts in hydraulics and water resources development specializing in Dams and Reservoir Engineering to deal IWT. Similarly, India has availed the services of highly experienced legal experts and policy makers to handle the IWT. Moreover, the Government of India is highly concerned and alive to the implementation of IWT in a way to achieve its objectives of starving Pakistan to death by stopping the supply of water at crucial moment.

 The purpose behind the implementation of the Treaty is to avail full water and hydropower potential of occupied Kashmir and its six rivers by holding as much water as possible. This is with the intention to destroy the irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin under the guise of IWT. India harnessed optimum hydropower and created large storage to hold winter flows of the Indus, Chenab and Jehlum Rivers in occupied Kashmir. This is with the intention to use water as a weapon of starvation against Pakistan. India managed that Pakistan goes into deep slumber, not realizing that India silently built dozens of dams in about 40 to 50 years. Pakistan has no data of what India is building. Pakistan is unaware how much storage water India created.

Pakistan is stupid, as it remained unaware of India building dozens of dams in utter violation of the Treaty. Moreover, Pakistan never realized that the Treaty has ceased with the silting of Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs and that new storage as Replacement storage is needed so that the Treaty stays alive perennially as Pakistan handed over perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India.

Over and above, the stupidity, Pakistan committed blunder by appointing Kamal Majeed as advisor to the President on water though Kamal Majidulla is non-professional. He is illiterate to the technical issues arising out of IWT. He and his team are unable to handle the Treaty in the context of no knowledge of hydraulics and of Dams and Reservoir Engineering. Another surprising fact is that Majidulla in turn appointed two highly controversial legal experts who could never win the case. They were appointed for their own benefits and not in the interest of the case. This is treachery with the nation. One doubts they are sold to India or they are highly incapable and inert.

This is because, Majidulla overlooked URI-II hydropower project being built by India as an essential part of Kishanganga  project. India managed to complete the URI-II project without bringing it to the notice of Pakistan Commissioner Indus Water (PCIW). Pakistan could watch these activities through the satellite and through the agencies. Pakistan negligence will help India win the controversial Kishanganga in the Arbitration court. URI-I and URI-II will produce 240 MW of power with a concrete dam of 171 feet high. Majidulla and his experts were sleeping. URI-II will pick up the tail water to make use of gross head of about 130 M as available in the course between URI-I tail race outlet.

Pakistani experts inability to watch and interpret IWT

The essence of the Indus Waters Treaty is that Pakistan has surrendered the perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India that perennially irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan and in return Pakistan got two Replacement storage dams, one on the Indus and the other on Jehlum River with net work of Link Canals. The Indus Basin works are meant to transfer perennial water from the Replacement storage dams to irrigate lands in the Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The Replacement storage created at Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have been silted up by about 6.6 maf. Pakistan has lost Replacement storage. The effect of this loss of water on the Treaty is that it became un-operative. Southern Punjab has lost the source of water in a wrong and unjust partition.

 The consequence of the loss of Replacement storage is that Link Canals are not operative to transfer water to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is surrendered to India will become dry. This will create grave situation. Therefore, the loss of 6.6 maf water requires Replenishment by creating new storage perennially otherwise the Treaty ceases to function, when storage is lost and the Replacement Works become redundant. The Treaty can only be revived when equivalent perennial storage on perennial basis is arranged by India. For this, the Treaty needs modification and flexibility. Alternately, water from the Three Eastern Rivers shall have to be released by India as was available on August 1947.

 Besides the above violations , all other violations of the Treaty are to be set right by India. The Treaty requires to create new Replacement storage as Tarbela and Mangla has lost 6.6 maf of water due to silting. If this is not done, there will be no water for Rabi crop and early Kharif. Pakistan as well as FATA and Afghanistan will be subjected to hunger. This will give rise to terrorism and India will be responsible for that. The whole world will suffer due to spread of terrorism as hunger, no development, no jobs, no education in Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan  will be forced to become terrorist.

The responsibility will lie on India due to stopping Chenab and Jehlum Rivers water during winter for growing Rabi and Kharif crops by building dams and holding water in violation of the IWT and for the continued illegal occupation of occupied Kashmir. The UN will be responsible for not implementing its pending resolution for the last 62 years. I fear water aggression against Pakistan, may in the future, lead to war perhaps nuclear war. The problem in the sub-continent is created by the British because of unjust and wrong partition. This is a great inhuman act as the life of 1.4 billion people is exposed to nuclear war. The permanent and just solution to the water issue is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan and take over Hyderabad, Junagarh and Manawadar states so that nuclear war is avoided. As the UN did not bother to implement its 62 years old resolution indicate lawlessness at international level.

It is frustrating to know that there are no dam sites on Kabul River, Chenab River and Jehlum River in Pakistani territory to store floodwater. Pakistan has dam sites only on the Indus River and Swat River. India is playing even with the water of the Indus River.

The global warming and climate change will reduce rivers flow by about 40% by the year 2050. What ever water is available, about 50% of that is lost due to seepage in the 150 years old, incompatible and obsolete supply-based Canal Irrigation System. Moreover, climate change will also affect water availability. Therefore, there is urgent need to create flexibility in IWT by its modification. There is need to carryout modernization of the Canal irrigation system to demand-based system to save huge wastage of water. This needs Integrated Comprehensive Water Management (ICWM). The building of unique 35-maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River are very vital for the survival of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan. These two dams must be built on war footing.

I foresee Pakistan will be faced with another serious problem by the year 2080 when Basha Dam, Tarbela Dam, and Mangla Dam will all silt up. The Canal Irrigation System will then be on run-of-the-river. This means no water for Rabi and early Kharif crops. The situation will create famine conditions that will aggravate terrorism, as there will be no food. The remedy to control silting at its source is to build Katzarah dam, as it will submerge the world’s highly erodible soil in the Skardu valley. This will increase the life span of all the reservoirs downstream of Katzarah Dam.

I also fear super flood of 2010 intensity, may hit Pakistan any time. Munda Dam with live storage of 0.67 maf, planned as power dam by WAPDA is now wrongly claimed as flood control dam. The flood control dam is Guroh Dop Dam about 8.0 miles upstream of Munda Dam. The Ministry should not allow WAPDA to commit another blunder to the series of blunders it already committed of which the Government is unaware as in case of IWT. There is dire need to shift WAPDA Head quarter to Islamabad to be in close contact with the Planning Commission, Ministry of Water and Power and Agriculture, IRSA and other relevant organizations.