Chitral River diversion to Panjkora River basin for reducing floods in Kabul River

Chitral River is the largest tributary of Kabul River as it contributes over 10 maf of water to Kabul River. Out of  this, about 4 maf  of surplus floodwater can be diverted for four summer months, May through August to Panjkora River basin. Kabul River during floods of 2010 was running with a peak discharge of 400,000 cusecs of floodwater that destroyed Nowshera and other villages. Unfortunately, there is no dam site on Kabul River with in Pakistan, therefore to reduce the fury of floods in Kabul River, we have no other alternative except to build dams on its tributaries, namely Chitral River, Panjkora River and Swat River. For diverting one maf of floodwater, a tunnel to carry 4200 cusecs with a diameter of 17 feet would be required. The diversion of 4.0 maf of floodwater would require a tunnel with 33 feet diameter.

This requires a dam at Mirkhani El 3953 on Chitral River with a height between 400 to 450 feet to store about 0.6 maf of floodwater for transferring it through the 23 miles long tunnel passing through Lowari top and discharging in to the catchment area of Panjkora River near village Chutiatan at the confluence of Bacul Khawar at El 3850 feet.

The Chitral River water will be stored in a huge reservoir of 8.5 maf at Shigo Katch of Guroh Dop Dam discovered by me in 1959-60.  Panjkora River arm of Swat River has an annual flow of about 3.0 maf. Swat River arm has also 3.0 maf annual flow. A 400 feet high dam at Kalam with storage of 0.27 maf can also be built to reduce flood in Kabul River.

Besides this, a unique dam with a storage capacity of 35 maf at Katzarah will tame the flood fury of the mighty Indus and avoid backwater flow in to Kabul River.

Chitral River when crosses Pakistan border and enters Afghanistan is called Kunard River. The crossing point is about 12 to 14 miles on the downstream of Mirkhani Dam. The Government of Pakistan must sign a Water Treaty with the Government of Afghanistan. Chitral River has a length of about 175 miles in Pakistan and when it enters Afghnistan and is called Kunar River, its length is 95 miles. The river again enters Pakistan and passes through Warsak Dam for power generation . 

Replacing Kalabagh Dam by unique alternative of Raised Fateh Barrage

I have found an excellent replacement to Kalabagh Dam that is highly controversial, technically faulty due to its restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design and is opposed by the KBD Project consultant. KBD has weak foundation, low power generation, receive heavy silting with 470 million tons giving short life-span and is infeasible on many counts. It is  destructive for Peshawar valley. The cost of land compensation for KBD will be prohibitive, as land that is inundated shall have to be acquired up to El 965.

All these grave faults in KBD would be replaced by the proposed Raised Fateh Barrage at 20% of the cost of Kalabagh Dam. Fateh Barrage will achieve two to three times more water and power benefits with almost perpetual life-span. It will serve as a balancing reservoir for water released from Tarbela Dam when more power generation is required without wasting irrigation water. The beauty of this unique proposal is that no land compensation is involved, no land acquisition is required and no controversy would be involved, as water will be stored with in the valley short of Attock gorge. There will be no silting, as during floods, it will function as a traditional barrage like Chashma barrage. I first submitted this proposal in 1994 when I was Chairman IRSA.

Kalabagh Dam is located downstream the confluence of the Indus River and Soan River with a length of about two miles at El 680 whereas the Raised Fateh Barrage is to be located on the Indus near about El 690, about two miles or so on the upstream of KBD. The raised barrage will consist of a 100 feet high dam at El 690+100=790 feet. On the crust of this dam, a conventional barrage will be constructed say with a height of about 50 feet. The barrage will create about 3.0 maf of storage up to El 790+50=840 feet. This storage can be re-filled two to three times in a year. This comes to 6 maf to 9 maf a year. It will generate hydropower on run of the river like at Warsak Dam. This could vary between 2000 MW to about 4500 MW.

We have suffered terribly due to the controversial and infeasible Kalabagh Dam for the past 36 years. The load shedding has become a permanent feature. It has destroyed the economy besides paralyzing life of common man. Even today, there is strong lobby for building KBD not knowing what the KBD consultant said, and why WAPDA gave a tailored TOR to the KBD consultant to achieve its hidden objective for which it is insisting, creating 36 years status quo and avoiding not to build the unique Katzarah Dam and the excellent Guroh Dop Dam. The hidden objective is to take 150 miles long high level canal with a discharge of 15,000 cusecs to feed Jehlum River System. The Right Bank Canal is infeasible. I hold WAPDA responsible for the tremendous losses caused by the 2010 floods, as there was no dam to store floodwater. Due to shortage of water, Water Accord paras 2, 4, 6 and 14(e) could not be implemented so far. This is the reason for inter-provincial water dispute.  

Technical Definitions of Irrigation, Drainage, Leaching & Water Management

Definitions of Irrigation and its vital Components.

No water resources development organizations in the country know the correct technical definitions of Irrigation, Drainage, leaching, and Water Management. This ignorance has become the source of wrong planning and execution of mega projects that resulted in failure and waste of billions of dollars like WAPDA projects of SCARP’s, N.D.P. Kachi Canal, Water Management, drainage, and storage projects. I therefore give their technical definitions to avoid failure of projects. All projects should be planned according to their technical definitions.

Definition of Irrigation

"It is defined to include irrigation, drainage and flood control all of which relate to the moisture control of crops in the field".

Definition of Drainage.

Drainage is the essential part of irrigation works, collecting the water that leached the salts out of soil and evacuating it outside the area, as well as separating the "reclaimed layer" from the sub-soil to avoid raising the water table with the resultant retrogression. Drainage prevents a rise in water, keeping the later at a depth that will not harm root development and maintain salt and water balance". Soluble salts can only be removed out of the area if sub-surface horizontal tile is provided and not the Tube wells. WAPDA provided vertical tube wells that pump injurious drainage effluent and is used as irrigation water that destroys land invisibly and gradually. A tube well cannot remove salinity and sodicity from the soil.

Note: -SCARPs and NDP were not designed to provide sub-surface tile drainage as per its definition. Therefore, they failed.

Definition of Leaching.

"Leaching is the process of dissolving and transporting soluble salts by downward movement of water through the soil".

Note: - {Definitions of Drainage and leaching clearly indicate to provide surface and sub­surface tile drainage to carry away the dissolved drainage effluent out of the area to protect root development. SCARPs and NDP have no such sub-surface drainage component: therefore they are complete failure}

Definition of Integrated Comprehensive Water Management (ICWM).

"Water Management is defined as the combined processes of storage, diversion, conveyance, regulation, measurement, distribution and application of the rational amount of water at proper time and removal of excess water from the farms to promote increased production economically, in conjunction with improvement of agricultural practice and institutional arrangement".

Note: - The definition of ICWM clearly shows that it is the integrated process of all of its components to avoid all wastage of water as well as to physically remove excess salts and water by drainage of the root zone of crops out of the area and adopt water efficient agricultural practices.

The calamitous effects of global warming on irrigated agriculture and the reduction of 40% surface water availability

Problems discussed with promising solutions

•         Main report explains water reduction by 40% due to glacial melting in the second permanent phase of global warming causing desertification of Sindh and Punjab

•         Besides this, there is another 50% water wastage in the 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible and wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system. It needs replacement by the demand-based canal irrigation system

•         Net water available for agriculture in the second permanent phase of global warming would be 35 maf out of 142 maf that comes to 25%. This would cause desertification of the Indus basin- the food basket of Pakistan. It needs mitigation as suggested in the report.

•          About 60% of land in the Indus basin suffer due to salinity, sodicity and water logging to various degrees as no sub-surface tile drainage is provided to evacuate injurious drainage effluent. This will destroy land. Drainage is vital part of irrigation.

•          About 45 maf of the injurious drainage effluent is used for irrigating lands in the Indus basin that injects about 200 million tons of injurious salts. The use of drainage effluent for irrigation is in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act of 1887. This injurious practice would render the Indus basin as saline waste by the year 2040.

•          Solving the dilemma whether to continue the use of 45 maf of the injurious saline drainage effluent for irrigation use in the Indus basin or stop it and provide sub­surface tile drainage to evacuate salinity and reclaim land and maintain salt and water balance in the root-zone of crop.

•          How to meet the food requirements when the population of Pakistan at the end of first phase of global warming by the year about 2040 would be about 32 crores and the land and water resources reduce by more than 50%?

•          Problems in the first phase of global warming need their promising solutions

•          Problems in the second permanent phase of global warming essentially require their probable solutions

•          Studies to be conducted by the Planning Division on water reduction to avoid the desertification of the Indus basin - the whole of Sindh and major part of Punjab due to global warming and glacial melting. This is alarming and needs mitigation. Other relevant studies must also be conducted on issues as discussed in the report.

•         List showing technical definitions of Irrigation, Leaching, Drainage and Water Management. The definitions convey correct technical sense for conceiving correct project concept with its vital parts and vital functions. Unfortunately these water projects are not planned to follow their technical definitions. This is why, SCARPs, NDP, irrigation, drainage, storage, watershed management and water management projects have failed or did not achieve their objectives.

•         Modern agricultural practices require power as a vital input of agriculture, therefore hydropower must be produced where ever possible by constructing dams and barrages

•         The agriculture scientists are unaware that they direly need proper infrastructures consisting of sub-surface tile drainage system to reclaim saline and water logged land and the demand-based canal irrigation system to make water available as and when needed in proper doses. Water and salt free land are the basic and vital inputs of agriculture but the agriculture scientists never demanded these facilities from irrigation department. The PARC scientists therefore carry out research in a wrong direction to seek other solutions for these problems. They have complicated the matter of the interaction of land, water and crop rather solving it practically on ground.

•         Pakistan has no means to implement vital and costly projects of environment improvement to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming as discussed in this report. Therefore, it is imperative to invite foreign and local investors to invest in land, water and power development to avoid the desertification of Sindh and Punjab and to mitigate the incoming famine conditions due to glacial melting and global warming. The colossal development would need the formation of cooperative societies by the landowners and the investors under the patronage of the Government of Pakistan. Therefore revolutionary laws must be enforced and the investors assured to take away their share of profit as discussed in the report.

•         Let the current many problems facing Pakistan not eclipse the gravest problem of the global warming on earth as that would cause the annihilation and extinction of the people of this area.

Vision 2030-Energy and Water slip-ups

I being water resource engineer would like to offer comments on chapter 6 (water) and chapter 9 (energy) of the vision 2030 with the intention to point out chronic problems, and their solutions. There is dire for to improve the energy and water concepts for vision-2030. The chapter 6 of the vision deals with Agriculture Growth: Food, Water and Land. The vision-2030 should therefore thoroughly dealt with the existing problems of water, land, irrigated agriculture, drainage of land, the failure of SCARPs and NDP, the use of injurious saline drainage effluent and food production besides hydropower generation. It should have suggested how to stop land degradation due to salinity, sodicity and water logging to reclaim vast saline and saline-sodic land as SCARPs and NDP failed. The use of saline drainage for irrigation is highly injurious. The removal and control of salinity requires  sub-surface tile drainage  but that is ignored. The injurious saline drainage effluent is harmful  for irrigation but that is retained in the ground and used for the irrigation of land. This wrong practice must stop.

It is a dilemma to solve whether the evacuation of drainage effluent by tile drainage is vital to reclaim land and remove salinity or continue the use of injurious saline drainage effluent for the irrigation of land to spoil it. Both the processes are conflicting. More over, storage dams to store 18 maf of water should have been identified by the vision. This is not done. Watershed management should have been planned to avoid rapid silting of reservoirs. The need for integrated comprehensive water management with all its components should have been emphasized for implementation to save about 60% water wastage. The vital replacement of 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible  and wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system by demand-based canal system is ignored to save massive wastage of water. The solutions to all these serious issues of water, land, food, irrigated agriculture and power are not indicated in the vision-2030 before trying to achieve the objectives of agriculture growth. More over, it is not specified in the vision where to build dams to store 18 maf of water and how to generate 162,000 MW of power as given in the vision 2030.. Refer to page 55, para 6.3 and page 81 of the vision- 2030. It is not specified how to reclaim saline land to stop land deterioration after the failure of SCARPs and NDP.

Besides the above, the vision-2030 has not indicated the calamitous effects of global warming on irrigated agriculture and food production as about 40% of 142 maf of surface water is likely to be reduced due to glacial melting in the second phase.

Before detailed views on water, land and food are given, I would first offer my views on Energy chapter 9 of the vision-2030 as Dr Asif and Mr Zulfiqar have already offered their views in letters to the Editor DAWN dated 24 and 27 August 2007. Dr Asif termed the vision-2030 as erroneous, inaccurate and perilous that needs consideration.

My first question is how would the vision-2030 achieve the power generation target of 162,000 MW projected in the Energy Security Plan 2005 as mentioned on page 81 of chapter 9 of the vision 2030? The installed power production today from hydropower, oil, gas, bio-fuel and nuclear is only 17352 MW. Out of this, the hydropower is only 6493 MW. The power shortage estimated by the year 2010 is 5100 MW and the requirement by the year 2030 is 162,000 MW. The country is already faced by sever, paralyzing and unending power crisis as there is shortage of about 5000 MW of power.

It is surprising the vision-2030 has ignored the environment friendly hydropower potential on the Indus and its tributaries that could generate about 50,000 MW by the construction of dams. A dam is a multipurpose structure and power is generated as a by-product that costs very low. The purchase of power under emergency at exorbitant cost is a proof of poor power planning. The Government pays the IPPs at the rate of Rs 9.72 or US cents 16.2 per kwh. WAPDA produces from its own thermal power plant from gas turbine at Kotri at the rate of Rs 2.95 or US cents 4.92 per kwh. Against all this, the cost of hydropower generation during 2005-2006 is Rs 0.72 or US cents 1.16 per kwh per unit. The benefit of cheap hydropower is not passed on to the consumers. This shows wrong policy, poor planning and high cost of industrial production.

The cost of hydropower and thermal power generation per kwh is in the ratio of Rs 0.72 : 9.72. It shows thermal power generation is 13.5 times more costly than the hydropower. Why then the vision-2030 has ignored the generation of hydropower by not proposing multipurpose dams to remove the sever water and power crises and meet the vision-2030 power and water objectives? Unfortunately, WAPDA did not build a dam after Tarbela in 1974 that is 36 years ago. This is the basic reason for power and water crises. It must be understood that dam is a multipurpose structure that stores water for irrigation of land to produce food, generate very cheap hydropower as by­product, control floods and avoid wastage of water to sea, regulate river flow and stop silt flow by functioning as watershed management structure. Besides this, dam is a vital component of integrated comprehensive water management that saves all waste flows from the obsolete and wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system besides wastage of floodwater to sea.

The unique Katzarah Dam has the potential to generate about 15,000 MW of hydropower with the maximum height to store 35 maf of water. In case a lower height is fixed to store 25 maf of water, the hydropower generation would correspondingly be reduced to 10,000 MW. The cost of Katzarah Dam would be about $ 8 billion. Katzarah Dam site on the Indus was discovered by me during 1961-62 along with other 10 dam sites while incharge of Dams Investigations. Later on, in 1968, Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team confirmed Katzarah Dam site. Katzarah Dam would stop silt erosion from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley that is the source of silt flow in the Indus water.

On my initiation even the President desired to carry out the pre-feasibility report of Katzarah Dam. Besides this, Nisar Memon Committee whom I gave technical help directed WAPDA to prepare the feasibility of Katzarah Dam and WAPDA promised to prepare it by September 2005. All this was ignored.

Hydropower generation

Surprisingly, the colossal power requirement of 162,000 MW including the hydropower component appears to be based on the 5 ineffective, infeasible and controversial dams included in the vision-2016. The collective power generation from the five dams is only 5900 MW. Kurram Tangi Dam with 50 MW power and Munda Dam with 740 MW power are local dams. The dependable hydropower from controversial Kalabagh Dam is only 1300 MW after lowering the reservoir retention level from RL 925 to 915. Astonishingly, the hydropower of Kalabagh Dam, was supported by 2000 MW of thermal power plant. Similarly, Dr Pieter Lieftnick rejected the 250 feet high Akhori Dam due to very weak foundation besides other reasons. It had no power component. Later on, WAPDA arbitrarily raised its height to 420 feet through local consultants on weak foundation to store more water and generate 600 MW of power. To fill Akhori reservoir, the height of Tarbela Dam shall have to be raised from 1550 feet to 1565 feet that is questionable. More over, a link canal to carry 80,000 cusecs of water shall have to be constructed across the country to run for two months hardly in a year and then remain dry. The only undisputed dam is Basha that would generate 4500 MW of power.

One can say the vision-2030 is blurred as far as energy, water, land, drainage and food is concerned. The rest of development in the country depends on the development of water and power as that is the economic base for prosperity. At the same time it is very strange that vision -2030 is silent on global warming, glacier melting and climate change as about 40% of 142 maf of surface water is likely to be reduced that comes to a massive quantity of 52 maf. The power/energy is a vital input of irrigated agriculture. Therefore the scarce water should be used efficiently by using power to lift water to higher land, run tube wells and use it for sprinkler and drip irrigation methods to produce food for the rapidly growing population of 32 crores by the year 2035. For all the water and power chaos, WAPDA is responsible. To improve the working efficiency, WAPDA should be bifurcated and water and power separated. WAPDAs head quarter should be shifted to Islamabad like of IRSA for greater cooperation with the Planning Commission and the Ministries of Water and Power besides the Ministry of Agriculture. The vision-2030 requires Master Planning in water, land, food, and energy sections to mitigate the calamitous effects of global warming (first and second phases). Chapters 6 and 9 require intelligent preparation with revolutionary planning concepts. The unique Katzarah on the Indus and excellent, multipurpose Gurah Dop Dam on Panjkora River are direly needed to implement vision 2030. 

Control massive water wastage by water management to counteract water scarcity caused by global warming

There is massive surface water wastage upto 60% in our highly wasteful supplied-based, incompatible canal irrigation system and due to floodwater wastage. Therefore, there is dire need to avoid huge wastage from each source. The total estimated figure of surface water wastage is about 82 maf out of 142 maf. These waste flows are, from the wasteful supplied-based canal irrigation system, the floodwater waste flow to sea, and the loss of water in the wide waterway of the Indus River bed. The massive water wastage urgently needs control by the combined processes of integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM). The net water available to crops at the farm after the wastage of 82 maf is about (142-82) = 60 maf. The colossal water loss of about 82 maf is unprecedented economic loss. The Government of Pakistan should take very serious notice of this huge loss of water and deal it as number one priority for the survival of irrigated agriculture to feed the 32 crores of population by the year about 2025. The massive water wastage shows that it is the water mismanagement and not the water scarcity to cause water shortage. It therefore needs proper control to avoid all wastage.

Besides the colossal wastage of about 82 maf of surface water there would yet be another incoming enormous loss of surface water between 35% to 40% of the 142 maf as a consequence of the global warming and glacier melting. Assuming only 35% shortage, it comes to (142x35%) = 50 maf. This huge shortage of water would be in the second permanent phase of the global warming after about 40 years. There is therefore compelling and life saving need to counteract the loss of 50 maf of the incoming surface water reduced flow due to global warming, by reducing and controlling the existing 82 maf of water wastage from the obsolete supply-based canal irrigation system, and by controlling floodwater wastage to sea. Besides the above water wastage, the water losses in the 14 miles wide and meandering Indus River between Chashma to Kotri is about 14 maf. The riverbank return flow or gain in winter in the Indus is about 6 to 7 maf. The net loss of water in the Indus River comes to about (14-7) = 7 maf. This loss of water shall have to be controlled by channeling the Indus River. Alternately, to avoid most of the water loss in the Indus River waterway, the water shares of Sindh and Baluchistan can be diverted from Chashma barrage on the Indus via Sibi in Kachi plain to enter Sindh province. This diversion is possible by lined canal with gravity flow through the proposed All Pakistan Grand Canal supported by Katzarah Dam.

The only way to counteract water shortage due to global warming for the survival of irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin is to carry out integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM). The basic and the vital components of (ICWM) are storage dams, drainage system for irrigated land, demand-based canal irrigation system and the use of modern water conveyance, distribution and water application methods and land improvement for optimum crop growth. The functions of these water management components are to avoid almost all wastage of water. The water management with its integral components and their comprehensive functions is defined below: -

"Integrated Comprehensive Water Management is defined as the integral process of watershed management, storage, diversion, conveyance, regulation, measurement, distribution and application of the rational amount of water at proper time and removal of excess water from the farm to promote increased production economically in conjunction with improvement of agriculture practices and institutional arrangement".

In view of the above definition, the basic water saving components of water management are:

Storage Dams

The construction of long life storage dam is vital part of water management to conserve, regulate river flow, control and store super-floods and generate cheap hydropower for the use of sprinkler and drip irrigation methods and for lifting irrigation water to higher lands. Storage dams control silt and act as watershed management infrastructure. Silt free water is a great advantage for the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation methods that can irrigate about three times more area than with flood irrigation. The support from storage dam is a must for the demand-based canal irrigation system as it releases regulated water supplies as and when required in proper doses. It can provide water to crops on the crop consumptive use basis in time in proper doses for maximum crop yield. The present method of Warabandi system of the supply of water to crops with fixed time duration on area basis is obsolete and wasteful.

Demand-based irrigation system

Demand based canal irrigation system is the basic and vital component of water management to avoid most of the water wastage from the wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system. Therefore, the obsolete, highly wasteful, 150 years old supply-based canal irrigation system needs immediate replacement by demand-based system. The demand-based canal irrigation system would result in saving of about 50 maf in surface water that is 8 times the storage of Basha dam. The demand-based system has most efficient water conveyance system to supply water to crops in time for maximum yield.

Modern methods for the application of irrigation water to crop

The adoption of modern irrigation practices is must for agricultural development using sprinklers and drip irrigation methods after improving land, carryout land reform and land consolidation. Plot of land for irrigation should be given geometrical shape. All these processes are vital part of ICWM. Sprinklers and drip irrigation methods of using water if practiced can irrigate about three times the area than by flooding method. It will remove scarcity of water to be caused by global warming and meet food needs of growing population.

Replacing water courses by pipe supply

Traditional and wasteful watercourses should be replaced by pipe supply as far as possible. This saves seepage and evaporation losses besides theft of water and is an important water saving component of water management.

Drainage of irrigated land

The surface and sub-surface drainage system for irrigated agriculture is an integral and very vital component of irrigation and of water management. This is missing in the Indus basin irrigation system since 150 years to evacuate the injurious saline effluent out of the area and control salinity and water logging. As a result, drainage effluent has accumulated as groundwater. Moreover, natural surface  drainage is also blocked due to encroachments. No surface and sub­surface tile drainage is provided to evacuate injurious salinity, sodicity and control water logging. There is no infrastructure to maintain salt and water balance. Drainage of land is the missing part of irrigation and is direly vital to keep water table under control and keep irrigated land healthy. As a consequence of no drainage system, about 60% of irrigated lands in the Indus basin suffer due to salinity, sodicity and water logging to various degrees. Crop yield on this account is low ' and is seriously affected. The right type of drainage system is extremely vital to evacuate injurious saline effluent out of the area, control water table, reclaim land and keep salt and water balance for optimum crop yield otherwise precious fresh surface water is wasted on diseased land. SCARPs and NDP were wrongly conceived mega drainage projects thereby both projects have not only failed but added more salinity and sodicity in soil. As a consequence of drainage accumulation and its misuse, Punjab is pumping about 45 maf of injurious saline groundwater drainage effluent for irrigation use that destroys its land invisibly and gradually without the farmers knowing it. It is estimated that if this practice of using saline groundwater drainage effluent continue, most of the Indus basin would turn as saline waste by the year about 2040. Therefore, drainage must be provided as it is the vital part of ICWM and integral component of irrigation.

Warabandi System

Warabandi system of 1887 for the supply of irrigation water to land has become obsolete as under the supply-based canal irrigation system it supplies water to crops on land area basis and fixed time limit. This is not according to crop consumptive use and the type of crop. Warabandi is to be replaced by crop consumptive use of water as and when required in proper doses. This is possible under the demand-based canal irrigation system supported by long life storage dam (Katzarah with 1000 years life span). It will produce maximum crop yield per acre. The farm-to-market-roads and all other agricultural inputs are among the vital components of ICWM.

The water saving role of ICWM to counteract reduced flow due to global warming

The major sources of water wastage are the 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible, supply- based canal irrigation system where about 100 to 105 maf of surface water is diverted in canal system out of 142 maf of the available surface water. About 50 maf of water is wasted in the supply-based canal irrigation system due to seepage. The next major source of water wastage is 25 maf to 35 maf of floodwater waste that goes to sea during monsoon. Besides this, about 7 maf of water is lost in the bed of the Indus River that needs channelizing to save water. The total water wastage on these three counts comes to about (50+25+7) = 82 maf out of 142 maf of water. What a great water wastage due to utter mismanagement of precious water? Still no one is concerned.

In the first phase of global warming in about 40 years from now, there would be increased river flows due to glacier melting often resulting in super floods. In the second and final phase of global warming, there would be 35% to 40% reduced surface water in rivers flows on permanent basis. On this account the loss of surface water due to global warming comes to about (assuming only 35% loss), that comes to (142x35%) = 50 maf of water. Besides this, hydropower generation from storage dams would also be reduced by the same amount. Therefore, maximum number of dams should be built.

There is already about 82 maf of surface water wastage out of 142 maf. The global warming would cause another about 50 maf of water loss as reduced rivers flow. There is therefore an extremely compelling need to save and minimize the current water wastage of about 82 maf by ICWM as explained above. This is the only way to negate the adverse effects of water shortage caused by global warming. If ICWM is not implemented, the irrigation system in the Indus Basin would almost have no water as (82+50) = 132 maf of water would be lost out of 142 maf.

It is estimated that the ICWM if implemented would reduce the current water wastage from 82 maf to about 32 maf. Now the situation is that on the one hand, there is loss of 50 maf of surface water due to reduce flow on account of global warming, but on the other hand there is golden opportunity to save about 50 maf of seepage water from Canal System through ICWM. The remaining 32 maf of surface water wastage due to floods and wastage in river Indus would be saved when Katzarah Dam is built and Indus is channelized.

Therefore, ICWM with all its vital components must be planned right now for immediate implementation, as it would require at least 30 years for completion. If ICWM is delayed or avoided the Indus basin irrigated agriculture would completely be ruined. It would not be possible to feed the 32 crores of population by the year 2025. Famine conditions would prevail with food riots and economy destroyed.

Destructive effects of global warming

Some of the destructive effects of global warming on environment are narrated to know the great incoming calamities falling on earth affecting its entire population with sever effects on developing countries including Pakistan.

In fact, human activities, growing population and increased emission of carbon dioxide is mainly responsible for global warming. The world is going to witness climbing temperatures, rising seas, heat wave, heavy precipitation, water scarcity, catastrophic floods, avalanches, tropical storms, earthquakes, tsunami, droughts and food riots besides population movement, pollution and natural disasters. Global warming could result in hurricanes and tornadoes. The increasing use of fuel fossil is causing warmer weather and more chaotic. Rapid deforestation in Pakistan and Afghanistan is contributing to global warming. The use of dirty weapons in war is affecting environment. The global warming is affecting flora and fauna besides species loss. It has created eco-environmental problems. Crops, fruit, vegetables and flowers are losing flavour, sweetness and fragrance. The biological clock of plants and animals is running ahead of time. It is affecting human physiology, and would cause infectious diseases. The planet earth and its environment would be under going great change due to multiple calamities as pointed out above. The UN must take serious notice of the horrible global calamities that endangers all life form including human existence on earth.

Environment friendly activities

The Government of Pakistan may immediately enforce environment friendly activities in all fields. The storage of water by dams and reservoirs on all rivers for irrigation and the generation of hydropower are all environment friendly measures. Dams and Reservoirs remove water scarcity, control super floods, control silt to act as watershed management infrastructure, increase life of downstream reservoirs, provide drinking water and avoid drought and famine besides producing environment friendly hydropower. More over, storage water is used for irrigation to produce food, raise trees and forests to reduce carbon-dioxide emission and help prevent global warming. In the first phase of global warming, the increased river flow would increase sediment flow that would rapidly silt up reservoir. Therefore, long life reservoirs must be planned. The dire need is to reduce carbon-dioxide emission and control pollution.

Pakistan should learn a lesson from India for building dozens of dams on each river and on each of their tributaries utilizing 100% potential of water and hydropower resources of occupied Kashmir. Pakistan is 100% failure in this respect. Water and power scarcity, food insecurity, famine conditions, lawlessness, poor governance, unconcerned attitude, corruption will continue. These are the requisites for terrorism.

President's role

The implementation of ICWM would save about 45 to 50 maf of seepage water. This saving of water is of dire necessity. Global warming would reduce river flows, and water availability by about 50 maf.  The water saving from ICWM would counteract the loss of water due to Climate change. The President of Pakistan is advised to order the implementation of ICWM and to build Katzarah Dam on war footing to avoid water losses. The bureaucracy wait for the President's order as they are powerless to initiate action. The inert attitude to fight calamity needs revolutionary change. I foresee the future is doomed.

Global Warming to reduce 50 maf of the Indus River flow out of 142 maf

The emerging global warming is the greatest of all the water problems for irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin to produce food for the fast growing population. It is a natural calamity caused due to the misuse of environment by mankind on earth. The average annual flow of the Indus River System is about 142 maf of water that would be reduced by one-third to about 92 maf after 2050. This means it will cause a shortage of about 50 maf of water annually due to the glacial retreat in the second half of the current century. This drastic reduction in run-off would require revolutionary improvement and modernization of the supply-based canal irrigation system to reduce water wastage and then use the 92 maf of water very efficiently to minimize the adverse effects of the shortage of water by global warming. Moreover, by the year 2050, the population of Pakistan would be about 35 crores. Therefore, the immediate implementation of integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) with all its integral and vital components is of dire necessity.

The ICWM would help in the two most adverse phases of the global warming. The first phase would continue up to 2050 when there is glacial retreat causing super floods and flash floods. The second phase would start after 2050 in the second half of this century. In the second phase there would be about 35 to 40% shortage of river water.

Both the phases of global warming require immediate modernization and replacement of the 150 years old, wasteful, incompatible, obsolete supply-based canal irrigation system by the lined demand-based canal irrigation system. The canal system requires surface and sub-surface tile drainage for quick disposal of floodwater as well as to control salinity, sodicity and water logging. Moreover, the ICWM direly needs constructing huge and long life storage dam at Katzarah on the Indus, and Guroh Dop Dam at Panjkora River. It urgently needs to generate hydropower to operate the sprinkler and drip irrigation methods for economical and efficient use of water besides lifting water to irrigate higher lands.. There is urgent need to control silt flow by watershed management. Katzarah Dam is the vital and the integral component of ICWM to store 35-maf of floodwater. It would generate about 15,000 MW of hydropower, irrigate vast barren areas and regulate the highly erratic flow of the Indus. Katzarah would also function as carryover dam, replacement dam and as watershed management dam. Moreover, Katzarah Dam has the unique feature of controlling silt in the Skardu valley to prolong the life of reservoirs. The source of silt in the Indus River water is the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley. Katzarah Reservoir would stop this erosion to function as watershed management dam.

Global warming of earth is due to pollution, over population, industrial waste, wars, carbon dioxide emission, deforestation and the extensive use of chemicals. These factors are fast destroying the environment. This will have far-reaching adverse effects on human beings and on all living things. It will have adverse effect on the Earth's atmosphere. As a result, it will affect the climate and the weather on earth. Moreover, it would severely disturb the hydrological cycle and dramatically decrease the river flow by about  40% in the second phase of global warming. Sever wet cycle would be followed by dry cycle besides changes in temperature and humidity. All these climatic changes and the reduced water availability would have serious effects on irrigated agriculture, crop growth, crop yield and food production. The only solution to face these calamities is to implement ICWM according to its true definition otherwise the people would starve to death and the Indus basin would turn as desolate wasteland.

For about the next 40 years till 2050, the river flows would increase due to glacier melt. This will cause flash floods and super floods with very heavy sediment load in river run-off. This would rapidly silt up the reservoirs. Besides this, heavy floods would cause extensive damages to infrastructures, irrigated agriculture and property. The surface drainage problem that is already serious is due to the complete blockage of the natural surface drains and their waterways that are encroached in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act of 1887. These need restoration. To control super floods, large capacity storage dams and efficient network of surface drainage system is pre-requisite. The survival of irrigated agriculture requires surface and sub-surface tile drainage beside storage dams and the demand-based irrigation system. The planners must plan for one hundred years ahead to combat the two phases of wet and dry cycles of global warming. Each phase is of about 50 years. The main problem is to produce food for 32 crores of population by the year 2050 and to feed 65 crores of people by the year 2100. The implementation of the ICWM would take at 30 years if started right now. It is therefore suggested to holdback all less important programs and give top priority to implement the vital components of the ICWM.

The UNDP released report in 2006, warning the people and the Government of Pakistan stating that "This major permanent reduction in run-off will have enormous consequences for livelihoods in the Indus Basin and for Pakistan's food supplies, observed by Human Development". Irrigated agriculture would be hard hit by global warming. Therefore there is immediate need to prepare Water Policy to preserve water and a Master Plan to implement it to meet food needs in the near future for the fast growing population. Pakistan would not be running out of water but it is definitely running out of time to tackle the critical problems presented by water stress and water scare conditions. Even if 95 maf of water is available against the present one of 142 maf, and if this is efficiently and economically used, by modern irrigation methods, it would serve the purpose of feeding the growing population. Under the present circumstance, about 82 maf of water out of 142 maf is wasted due to seepage from the wasteful and obsolete canal irrigation system and during floods. This wastage of water comes to 60%. It means only (142- 82)=60 maf of water is used by the existing irrigated agriculture in traditional and wasteful manner. If most of the 82 maf of water losses are saved by ICWM then, the adverse effect of global warming causing shortage of water due to reduced river flow could be balanced by the modernization of canal system preventing wastage of water and by building dams.

           

The grave situation can be handled provided ICWM is implemented in time. I wish the President pay attention to avoid the incoming catastrophe of shortage of water. I hereby warn that the global melt is emerging as the greatest threat to human sustenance and to food production.

Global warming to transform Pakistan into almost desert

Pakistan is going to be the worst hit country in the world by global warming. Water scarcity may turn it in to desert. It is the time to avoid massive water wastage in our 150 years old, incompatible and obsolete canal irrigation system. Moreover, build multipurpose dams to store floodwater going waste to sea and generate hydropower.

There is massive surface water wastage of about 50 maf due to seepage in our 150 years old, highly wasteful, incompatible supplied-based canal irrigation system therefore, there is dire need to avoid it by Integrated Comprehensive Water Management. The total estimated figure of surface water wastage from major sources is about 82 maf out of 142 maf. The major waste flows are from the wasteful supplied-based canal irrigation system, the floodwater waste flow to sea and the loss of water in the wide waterway of the Indus River bed. The massive water wastage urgently needs control by the combined processes of integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM). The net water available to crops at the farm after the wastage of 82 maf is about (142-82) = 60 maf. The colossal water loss of about 82 maf is unprecedented economic loss. The Government of Pakistan should take very serious notice of this huge loss of water and deal it as number one priority for the survival of irrigated agriculture to feed the 32 crores of population by the year about 2030. The massive water wastage show, that it is the water mismanagement that mostly caused water scarcity. We must avoid all wastage from all sources in the event of global warming when river discharges would reduce. 

Besides the colossal wastage of about 82 maf of surface water from all sources, there would be another enormous wastage of surface water between, 35% to 40% of the 142 maf due to global warming and glacier melting. Assuming only 35% shortage due to global warming, it comes to (142x35%) = 50 maf. This huge shortage of water would be in the second permanent phase of the global warming after about 30 years. There is therefore life saving need to counteract the 50 maf of the surface water reduced flow due to global warming by reducing the existing losses of 82 maf of water wastage from the obsolete supply-based canal irrigation system and floodwater wastage to sea. Besides the above water wastage, the water losses in the 14 miles wide and meandering Indus River between Chashma to Kotri is about 14 maf. The riverbank return flow or gain in winter in the Indus is about 6 to 7 maf. The net loss of water in the Indus River comes to about (14-7) = 7 maf. This loss of water shall have to be controlled by channelizing the Indus River. Alternately, to avoid most of the water loss in the Indus River waterway, the water shares of Sindh and Baluchistan can be diverted from Chashma barrage on the Indus via Sibi in Kachi plain to enter Sindh province. This diversion is possible by lined canal with gravity flow through the proposed All Pakistan Grand Canal supported by Katzarah Dam.

The only way to counteract water shortage due to global warming for the survival of irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin is to carry out integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM). The basic and the vital components of (ICWM) are storage dams, drainage system for irrigated land, demand-based canal irrigation system and the use of modern water conveyance, distribution and water application methods to land for optimum crop growth. The functions of these water management components are to avoid almost all wastage of water. The water management with its integral components and their comprehensive functions is defined below: -

"Integrated Comprehensive Water Management is defined as the integral process of watershed management, storage, diversion, conveyance, regulation, measurement, distribution and application of the rational amount of water at proper time and removal of excess water from the farm to promote increased production economically in conjunction with improvement of agriculture practices and institutional arrangement".

In view of the above definition the basic water saving components of water management are:

Storage Dams

The construction of long life storage dam is vital part of water management to conserve, regulate river flow, control and store super-floods and generate cheap hydropower for the use of sprinkler and drip irrigation methods. Storage dams control silt and act as watershed management infrastructure. Silt free water is a great advantage for the use of drip and sprinkler irrigation methods that can irrigate about two to three times more area than with flood irrigation. The support from storage dam is a must for the demand-based canal irrigation system as it releases regulated water supplies as and when required in proper doses. It can provide water to crops on the crop consumptive use basis in time in proper doses for maximum yield. The present Warabandi system of the supply of water, for fixed time duration, on area basis, is obsolete.

Demand-based irrigation system

Demand-based canal irrigation system is the basic and vital component of water management to avoid most of the water wastage from the wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system. Therefore, the incompatible, obsolete, highly wasteful, 150 years old supply-based canal irrigation system needs immediate replacement. The demand-based canal irrigation system would result in colossal saving of about 50 maf of surface water. The supply-based is the most efficient water conveyance system to supply water to crops in time for maximum yield.

Modern methods for the application of irrigation water to land

The adoption of modern irrigation practices is must for agricultural development using sprinklers and drip irrigation methods. Land reform and land consolidation is essential. Plot of land for irrigation should be given geometrical shapes. All these processes are vital part of ICWM. Sprinklers and drip irrigation methods if practiced can irrigate nearly three times the area than by flooding method. It will remove scarcity of water to be caused by global warming and meet food needs.

Replacing water courses by pipe supply

Traditional watercourses should be replaced by pipe supply as far as possible. This saves seepage and evaporation losses besides theft of water and is an important water saving component of water management. Hydropower generation to run sprinkler and drip system is the vital instrument in the processes of ICWM.

Drainage of irrigated land

The Drainage system for irrigated agriculture is an integral and very vital component of  water management in irrigation practice. This is missing in the Indus basin irrigation system since 150 years to evacuate the injurious saline effluent out of the area and control water logging. As a result, drainage effluent has accumulated as groundwater. Moreover, natural surface drains are also blocked due to encroachments violating the Canal and Drainage Act 1887. No surface and sub­surface tile drainage is provided to evacuate injurious salinity, control water logging and maintain salt and water balance. Drainage is the missing part of irrigation and is direly vital to keep water table under control and keep irrigated land healthy. As a consequence of no surface and sub-surface drainage system, about 60% of irrigated lands in the Indus basin suffer due to salinity, sodicity and water logging to various degrees. Crop yield on this account is low, and is seriously affected. The right type of drainage system is extremely vital to evacuate injurious saline effluent out of the area, control water table, reclaim land and keep salt and water balance for optimum crop yield otherwise precious fresh surface water is wasted on diseased land. SCARPs and NDP were wrongly conceived mega drainage projects thereby both projects have not only failed but added more salinity and sodicity in soil. As a consequence of drainage accumulation and its misuse, Punjab is pumping about 45 maf of injurious saline groundwater drainage effluent for irrigation use that destroys its land invisibly without the farmers knowing it. The farmers have installed about 10,000 small tube wells that inject about 250 million tons of injurious salts from the groundwater drainage effluent. It is estimated that if this practice of using saline groundwater drainage effluent continue, the Indus basin would turn as saline waste by the year about 2040. Therefore, tile drainage must be provided as it is the vital part of ICWM and integral component of irrigation.

Warabandi System

Warabandi system of 1887 for the supply of water has become obsolete as under the supply-based canal irrigation system it supplies water to crops on land area basis and fixed time limit. This is to be replaced by crop consumptive use of water as and when required in proper doses under the demand-based irrigation system supported by long life storage dam. It will produce maximum crop yield per acre. The farm-to-market-roads and all other agricultural inputs are among the vital processes of ICWM.

The water saving role of ICWM would counteract, the reduced flow caused by global warming

The major sources of water wastage are the 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible  supply- based canal irrigation system where about 100 to 105 maf of surface water is diverted in canal system out of 142 maf of the available surface water. About 50 maf of water is wasted due to seepage from the supply-based canal irrigation system. The next major source of water wastage is 25 maf to 35 maf of floodwater waste that goes to sea during monsoon. Besides this, about 7 maf of water is lost in the bed of the Indus River that needs channelizing to save water. The total water wastage on these three counts comes to about (50+25+7)=82 maf out of 142 maf of water. What a great water wastage due to utter mismanagement of precious water? Still no one is concerned.

In the first phase of global warming in about 40 years from now, there would be increased river flows due to glacier melting often resulting in super floods. In the second, and final phase of global warming, there would be 35% to 40% reduced surface water flows on permanent basis. On this account the loss of surface water due to global warming comes to about (assuming only 35% loss) as (142x35%)=50 maf of water. Besides this, hydropower generation from storage dams would also be reduced by the same amount. Therefore, maximum number of dams should be built.

There is already about 82 maf of surface water wastage. The global warming would cause another about 50 maf of water loss as reduced surface flow. There is therefore an extremely compelling need to save and minimize the current water wastage  of about 82 maf by ICWM as explained above. This is the only way to negate the adverse effects of water shortage caused by global warming. If ICWM is not implemented, the irrigation system in the Indus Basin would almost have no water as (82+50) = 132 maf of water would be lost out of 142 maf.

It is estimated that the ICWM if implemented would reduce the current water wastage in the canal system by about 50 maf, from floods by 25 maf that comes to about 50+25 =75 maf. Now the situation is that on the one hand, there is loss of 50 maf of surface water due to reduce flow on account of global warming but on the other hand there is golden opportunity to save at least 75 maf of surface water through ICWM.

Therefore, ICWM with all its vital components must be planned right now for immediate implementation as it would require at least 30 years for completion. If ICWM is delayed or avoided the Indus basin irrigated agriculture would completely be ruined. It would not be possible to feed the 32 crores of population by the year 2030. Famine conditions would prevail with food riots and economy destroyed.

Destructive effects of global warming

Some of the destructive effects of global warming on environment are narrated to know the great incoming calamities falling on earth affecting its entire population with sever effects on developing countries. Pakistan would suffer the most due to its location on earth for severe water shortage Desert conditions may prevail.

In fact, human activities, growing population and increased emission of carbon dioxide is mainly responsible for global warming. The world is going to witness climbing temperatures, rising seas, heat wave, heavy precipitation, water scarcity, catastrophic floods, avalanches, tropical storms, earthquakes, tsunami, droughts and food riots besides population movement, pollution and natural disasters. Global warming could result in hurricanes and tornadoes. The increasing use of fuel fossil is causing warmer weather and more chaotic. Rapid deforestation in Pakistan and Afghanistan is contributing to global warming. The use of dirty weapons in war is affecting environment. The global warming is affecting flora and fauna besides species loss. It has created eco-environmental problems. Crops, fruit, vegetables and flowers are losing flavour, sweetness and fragrance. The biological clock of plants and animals is running ahead of time. It is affecting human physiology and would cause infectious diseases. The planet earth and its environment would be under going great change due to multiple calamities as pointed out above. The UN must take serious notice of the horrible global calamities that endangers all life form including human existence on earth. Pakistan needs serious attention of the UN for assistance to implement ICWM.

Environment friendly activities

The Government of Pakistan may immediately enforce environment friendly activities in all fields. The storage of water by dams and reservoirs on all rivers and their by products are all environment friendly measures. Dams and Reservoirs remove water scarcity, control super floods, control silt to act as watershed management infrastructure to increase life of reservoirs, provide drinking water and avoid drought and famine besides producing environment friendly hydropower. More over, storage water is used for irrigation to produce food, raise trees and forests to reduce carbon-dioxide emission and help prevent global warming. In the first phase of global warming, the increased river flow would increase sediment flow that would rapidly silt up reservoir. Therefore, long life reservoirs must be planned. The dire need is to reduce carbon-dioxide emission and control pollution.

President's role

The implementation of ICWM, the building of 35 maf Katzarah Dam and the 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam, to counteract shortage of water due to global warming, has to be ordered by the President of Pakistan on war footing. This is because bureaucracy is inert to fight national calamities in time therefore, they wait for the President's order to initiate action. This inert attitude to fight global calamity needs revolutionary change otherwise the future is doomed. The vital water issues are not discussed in the Parliament though the country would face do or die situation in the near future. The consequences of global warming would be far more dramatic than we can imagine.