Water insecurity means food insecurity aggravated by rapid population growth may result in water war.
Fear of water war is growing as circumstances created by India are heading towards it. Senator John Kerry report to US Senate confirms it.
God created Life of water. Man uses water for many purposes. The most important of all are drinking purposes and irrigated agriculture to produce food to sustain life.
Pakistan has inherited the largest contiguous, barrage control, canal irrigation system in the world that is more than 150 years old. Before that there were inundation canals for crop growth. The network of barrage control, irrigation systems are fed by many important rivers like the mighty Indus River System, Jehlum River, Chenab River, Ravi, Sujlege and Bias Rivers. Moreover, Swat River, Punjkora River, Kunhar River, Chitral River, Daur River and Siren River and numerous hill torrents which are the tributaries of the Indus River System. God has gifted enough water and excellent land to Pakistan to produce food and hydropower. It is for us to manage it, protect it, and use water efficiently for our existence.
On partition of India, Ravi, Sutlege, and Bias were allocated to India under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) and the Indus, Jehlum and Chenab to Pakistan. Unfortunately, the hydrological Region from where these six rivers originate lie in occupied Kashmir under the forcible occupation of India. As such, the control of these rivers is in the hands of India because of the unjust partition of India. India has started politics in water and uses water as a weapon to further terrorist objectives. India has therefore acquired the capability to control water of Pakistan’s rivers namely, Chenab River, Jehlum River and the Indus River that originate in the Indian occupied Kashmir—a disputed territory. Pakistan faces great danger at the hands of India as it has built 32 large dams on these rivers creating dead storage of more than 10 maf and Live storage of about 38 maf in violation of the IWT that only allows 4.19 maf of water to India. Besides this, India is building another 9 major dams on these rivers.
India uses water as a weapon of mass destruction
India has built 32 large dams in disputed territory on war footings with the purpose to stop water to Pakistan for its Rabi crop growing season. Pakistan Rabi crop growing water requirements presently is about 38-39 maf. In fact, it is terrorism using water as a weapon so that Pakistan is unable to produce food for its rapidly growing population. As a result, Pakistan will face famine, hunger, death, economic devastation and genocide. India has acquired the capability to use water as a weapon of mass destruction by causing famine and hunger. India has turned water terrorist—an international crime. It is our right to live on earth and share its natural resources for existence. Such aggressive capability acquired by India is confirmed by the report of Senator John Kerry submitted to the US Senate. John Kerry fears water war between India and Pakistan. An excerpt from his report is quoted;
“India has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moment in the growing season”.
External insecurity of water.
India’s activity shows environment is created by India to cause water and food insecurity leading to water war within the next about 15 years. Pakistan would not like to see its people dying of hunger. India is compelling Pakistan for water war. Such war (nuclear war) will not only destroy India and Pakistan but the whole of sub-continent. This is not in the interest of the United States as foreseen by John Kerry as well as other nations of the world. This will adversely affect climate change and destroy environment on earth. It will affect trade, health of the people due to radiation, cause diseases, affect land and crop, animals and upset the working of the whole world. It is therefore vital that USA and other nations of the world intervene by making immediate decision on handing over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan and Kashmiri people so that the hydrologic region from where Pakistani rivers originate is peacefully handed over to Pakistan. There is dire need for conflict resolution for the sake of peace as God created earth for the sustenance of humankind.
With evil intension, India manipulated the text of the Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan so that it skillfully creates unlimited storage on Pakistani Rivers. For achieving this purpose India cheated Pakistan by providing wrong technical definitions to the technical terms used in building storage dams. For this refer to the Appendix—D, paras ( c ) to ( g ) of the Treaty. The cheating is cleverly camouflaged in the definitions. Power generation is allowed on run-of-the river, and run-of-the-river means, no live storage. All other definitions are maneuvered. It is further evident from the fact of inequitable water replacement between the two countries that Pakistan gave perennial water to India whereas in return Pakistan got “time-based storage water” on its own rivers for a limited period because of rapid silting of reservoirs. In about 37 years, Pakistan lost about 6.5 maf of storage capacity. This made the IWT inefficacious as the integral components of the Treaty are storage. Pakistan should get perennial water in replacement of perennial water. Time-based storage water cannot be equated to the perennial water. Water rights of Pakistan cannot be usurped under the Treaty, and even otherwise. Water rights are protected in the Treaty.
Pakistan water rights guaranteed.
The Preamble of the Treaty reveals that “the water rights and obligations of each in relation to the others concerning the use of these waters cannot be altered”. Pakistan water rights are further confirmed and guaranteed under article XI (3) stating that “the rights and obligations of each party under the Treaty shall remain unaffected by any provision contained in or anything arising out of the execution of any agreement”.
India violates Treaty on many counts rendering it inefficacious
Moreover, under the Treaty, India is only allowed to create 4.19 maf of storage and not more than that. Contrary to this India created about 38 maf of Live storage blatantly violating the IWT. Moreover, India has planned to divert the course of Pakistani Rivers linking these with the Indian Rivers, even diverting the floodwater flows in violation of the Treaty.
Solution to external water issues in avoiding water war.
The peaceful solution to the issue for avoiding nuclear war is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan in replacement to Hydrabad Daccan, and Junagarh and Manavadar states. Nuclear war would kill one billion people on earth. This will severely heart US national security interest. This is why John Kerry informed the US senate of the fear of nuclear war between India and Pakistan in the near future, because, India has acquired the capability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moment in the growing season. It is incumbent on all nations of the world, specially the US to save the earth of such a cataclysmic holocaust.
The fear of water war has been confirmed by Cameron Harrington and Asim Ali in their article titled “Water Securitisation” in Daily the News. Similar fear is expressed by Fiona Harvey in the Daily Dawn dated 23.3.2012. Some excerpts are quoted from more articles as; “The UK Secretary for energy and climate change, warned that water war could be a real prospect in coming years. ED Davey told a London conference that growing pressure on food could lead to new sources of conflicts and worsening of existing conflicts. Beside the above, the US intelligence said that areas including South Asia, the Middle East and North Africa would face major challenges in coping with water problems that could hinder the ability to produce food and generate energy. It said water war is feared beyond 10 years. The use of water as a weapon or to further terrorist objectives also will become more likely. The climate change will play a growing role with reduced rivers flow, after about 2040.
In view of many similar views on water war and in view of the developing circumstances created by Indian water aggression, I foresee the devastation of Pakistan in the near future, first by floods like of 2010 for not building dams for the past 37+10 = 47 years, and then due to climate change in the drastic reduction of river flow of about 45 to 50 per cent before the year 2040. These are vital causes for shortage of water. The reduction of water by withholding of about 38 maf of water in 32 storage dams by India, on Pakistani rivers in occupied Kashmir, will destroy the world’s largest canal irrigation system in the Indus basin. The perennial system will become non-perennial as it was before 1859.
Internal insecurity of water and food, due to climate change
At present the average annual flow in Pakistan is about 142 maf. Out of this, the canal system capacity is to divert 105 maf for irrigated agriculture. Out of 105 maf about 50 % of it is lost in the wasteful, incompatible and obsolete canal irrigation system more than 150 years old. The coming events will reduce the annual flow of 142 maf by nearly half. The climate change is therefore likely to reduce about 50 per cent of the rivers flow after 2040. This means Pakistan will get half of 142 maf that is, about 71 maf. Out of this, reduce the 38 maf of water to be retained by India due to its water aggression in 32 dams in occupied Kashmir. This comes to 71-38 = 33 maf. The canal system will get about 33 maf against 142 maf. Again about 50 per cent of 33 maf of water will be lost in the wasteful and obsolete canal irrigation system unless it is modernized to avoid wastage, and water is used by sprinkler and drip irrigation method to irrigate more area. Warabandi system is obsolete. This should be replaced by providing water as per crop consumptive use. Agronomists must be associated with irrigation and drainage engineers.
It is in US interest to avoid nuclear war between India and Pakistan. The solution to all disputes and to avoid the fear of nuclear war lie in peacefully handing over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan. US resolution on Kashmir must be implemented. Pakistan will never tolerate that its population die of hunger. It will prefer to die nuclear death than death by hunger. This is reality. Peace is in the interest of all nations of the world. Let wisdom prevail.
The external Water insecurity means food insecurity that would result in war.
Pakistan faces two types of water insecurity. The one is external and the other internal. The external insecurity in water is from India as discussed above. Pakistan faces more than a dozen of internal water insecurities. I will only point out a few due to shortage of space. For full details including their solutions please refer to my website, fateuk.blogspot.com
Issues causing Internal insecurity of water needs immediate solutions.
· Undertake implementation of Integrated Comprehensive Water Management true to its technical definition to save water and produce food.
· Modernization of the wasteful, incompatible and obsolete canal irrigation system designed 150 years ago on empirical formula for regime flow conditions, no longer workable. The unscientific and wasteful Warabandi system for the supply of water to crops must be abandoned. Water to crops must be made available as per crop consumptive use as and when required in proper dozes. The wasteful use of water creates insecurity of water. It also affects food production.
· No dams built for the last 37+10 = 47 years to control devastating floods as of 2010. It created water and power shortage. The unique multipurpose 35 maf Katzarah Dam, the 8.5 maf of Guroh Dop Dam and the unique Fateh Barrage at the end of the Indus River valley ignored. Fateh Barrage, as a substitute for Kalabagh will forever settled the Kalabagh controversy by its unique change in hydraulic design and structure, minor change of site, requiring no land acquisition, no land compensation and no population displacement. It will generate more power and store more water than KBD with no silting problem and indefinite life span. These three multipurpose projects would solve many issues. These will also solve insecurity of water, food, energy and silt. Katzarah will function as watershed management dam to help remove silting problem. Fateh Barrage would act as balancing reservoir and ensure the water right to Sindh and Baluchistan.
· Rapid silting of reservoirs due to absence of watershed management resulted in loss of 6.5 maf of storage. Selection of dam sites keeping in view the Capacity-inflow Ratio will serve as watershed management infrastructure. Silting of reservoir is a great water issue of serious nature. The Skardu valley is the source of silt, if Katzarah Dam is built almost all silt flow will stop. Katzarah Dam will serve as watershed management dam, increase the life of Basha Dam from 90 years to about 800 years, and of Tarbela by 40 years.
· Absence of surface and sub-surface tile drainage the vital and integral component of irrigation system rendering millions of acres of fertile lands as saline, saline sodic and water logged. There is no means to control and remove salinity out of the area and keep salt and water balance in the soil. There is no control on water table. Injurious salts are accumulated in the soil in the form of drainage effluent as groundwater. It is is pumped for irrigation use. The increasing salinity is creating insecurity of land, water and food.
· The Tube wells based drainage project of SCARPs and drainage project of NDP both tried and failed wasting Rs 750 billion. The idea of providing Drainage System, which is the vital and integral component of Irrigation System, is abandoned by WAPDA as it faced project failed twice. This is a serious matter as the Indus basin will be rendered saline waste in about 45 years. The remedy lies in providing sub-surface tile drainage.
· About one million small tube wells are installed in the Indus basin, indiscriminately pumping the accumulated 45 to 50 maf of the saline groundwater drainage effluent for irrigation use. This injects about 350 million tons of injurious salts into the Indus basin each year. The Indus basin soil is getting more and more saline gradually and invisibly. There will be no use of water if land gets saline waste. This is an issue of insecurity of land, water and food. A very serious matter. Sub-surface tile drainage system should be provided to control and remove salinity out of the area and maintain salt and water balance.
· Water getting short, no increase in canal irrigated area for the past 40 years, rapid growth of population, lands getting saline, rapid silting of reservoirs, flood havoc, power shortage, wastage of water, climate change, poor faulty planning, poor governance, corruption, lack of political will, and food needs increase, are all issues creating insecurity of water.
· Wrong planning of dams, wrong planning of drainage system, wrong planning of Kachi canal, controversy on Kalabagh, no storage water and no power generation for the past 37+10=47 years has resulted in acute water shortage and crippling load shedding. The silting of reservoirs by 6.5 maf aggravated the problem creating insecurity of water, food and energy.
· Kalabagh controversy continued for 37 years, maintaining status quo under the motto of “Kalabagh Dam or no dam”. This resulted in water shortage, food shortage and energy shortage causing crippling load shedding.
· Water Accord of 1991 and its vital paras 2, 4, 6, 14 (e) not yet implemented. This makes the Water Accord useless. It creates insecurity of water. IRSA needs 22 maf of storage dams to implement Water Accord.
IWT inefficacious on four counts needs revision/modification for correction
· Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious due to the silting of Replacement storage Reservoirs at Tarbela and Mangla built as part of the IWT. It is rendered inoperative, as India blatantly violated it by creating 38 maf of live storage against the allowable of 4.19 maf. It violated water rights of Pakistan and cheated Pakistan in the technical definitions of terms given in Appendix-D, sub-section ( c ) to ( d ). Moreover, the Treaty is unjust and inequitable as time-based storage water is equated to the perennial water. All these lacunas rendered the Treaty useless as these have created great insecurity of water.
· India has planned to create another insecurity of water by building 9 large dams on Kabul River and on its tributaries.
Suggestions for Constitutional provision for good governance, rapid development, and nation building
· Learning lesson from the past shortcomings, poor governance and lack of responsibility by the successive Governments, resulted in flood devastation of 2010, and the unending crippling load shedding, terrorism due to poor administration of tribal area, unemployment problem, deteriorating economy, high prices, poor Rupee value, law and order problem, irrelevant controversies on projects, and sticking to it, committing planning blunders, faulty execution of mega projects, sleeping over dozen of burning issues, not implementing Water Accord, not taking serious notice of Indian water aggression and John Kerry report on water, ignoring the unique Katzarah and Guroh Dop Dams, and Fateh Barrage since 1960, and 1994, there is now dire need to tackle these issues for which certain effective provisions in the Constitution of Pakistan in necessary to avoid its repetition. It is necessary to carryout visible minimum essential development from planning and investigation stage, to their final execution, regarding water, energy, food, employment, medical and education facilities by each ruling political party in their specified period of 5 years governance. Any Government and their Ministers, the bureaucracy under them, the professional organizations and all those concerned including head of state and head of provinces that fail to achieve the required development target during their stay in future should be disqualified for the next election. A strong disciplinary action should be taken against the heads of the departments and concerned bureaucracy for sleeping over such matters.
· Article 39 of the Constitution may be strengthened. The mandate of all political parties should be on this basis. What the political parties plan to achieve, should be indicated in their mandates, so that voters know, and decide whom to vote.
· Pakistan has yet to irrigate another 20 million acres of barren lands to feed its population.
