How to Plan Dams on silty rivers like the Indus for longer life

In the legends of the rivers, the Indus River is Pakistan’s Aab-i-Hayat. The Indus River perhaps is the most highly silt carrying river in the world. Its water enriches the soil. It is the second largest river in the world after River Nile. For building dams on silty rivers like the Indus, reservoirs rapidly lose storage capacity due to silting. Therefore, great care be taken for the selection of dam site to have long life. Dr Pieter Lieft nick report “Water and Power Resources of West Pakistan, Volume I, 1968, page 251 reports “Any plan for the construction of reservoirs in Pakistan must consider the problem of sedimentation, particularly true for the reservoirs, on the Indus. This is because the rate of sedimentation is such that a profound effect on the life of the Indus reservoir will be made”. The report further says, “Tarbela Dam site may be taken as an example of high sediment load, its reservoir will be fully depleted in about 50 years”.

“The major drawback of Tarbela Reservoir is that the useful life of the reservoir will be rather short on the order of 50 years because of rapid sedimentation”. Page 245. For replenishment of storage lost due to silting, further large-scale capacity will be needed to meet the growing irrigation needs and to help capacity lost by siltation of Tarbela”. Page 242. It has now been observed that Tarbela Reservoir has lost storage due to silting by (11.6-6.6) = 5.0 maf in 36 years. The second dam to be built on the Indus will be after 36+8=44 years.

Dr Pieter report further reveals, “Extremely little is known about the silt load of the Indus –its origin, time of occurrence, nature etc  and very little work has been devoted to trying find a solution; obviously the problem is becoming very important for it will gradually eliminate much of the value of a multi-billion dollars” Page 136.

“Therefore, a thorough survey of the silt problem and of its means to overcome it is urgently needed”. Page 137. “Therefore there is urgent need to start investigation of siltation problem”. Page 234. The above are some excerpts from Dr Pieter Lieftnick report.

I have revealed the source of silt and one of the most effective solutions to stop silt flow in the Indus or reduce it to the minimum.  

In a country like Pakistan that depends on canal irrigation for agriculture to produce food, there is dire need for long life storage dams, as dams are the basic and the most vital input to supply water to crops as per crop consumptive use as and when required in proper dozes. Dams are part of irrigation system for the timely availability of water for crops. Almost silt free water, released by dams would run the sprinkler and Drip system of irrigation efficiently.  

The Indus is the only river in Pakistan where few mega dam sites are available for creating storage reservoirs. Unfortunately, every dam site on the downstream of Katzarah is less attractive than the one on its upstream. Therefore, storage dams on the Indus be selected on priority basis that have longer life. This is very necessary because there are no dam sites on  big rivers of Pakistan, the Kabul River, the Jehlum River and the Chenab River. We depend only on the silty Indus. Therefore, we must plan a dam on the Indus that has the best capacity inflow ratio for longer life span. Besides this, extensive watershed management measures be taken to reduce land erosion and silt flow.

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The example of Hoover Dam or Boulder Dam on Colorado River in USA is quoted. The life span at the time of construction of Hoover Dam was 100 years. After carrying out watershed management in the catchment area, the life span, of the dam now is about 1000 years.

Watershed Management

Watershed Management is a vital pre-requisite to stop silt flow and increase the life of reservoirs. Watershed Management is carried out in the catchment area of storage dams before and after the construction of dams. It is a continued process till silt erosion and silt movement is almost stopped. Watershed Management is done by building check dams/bunds all over the catchment area, by growing forests and greenery to check soil erosion and reduce the speed of rainwater runoff to slow down the velocity flow and silt movement.

The building of storage dams on the upstream of the river will reduce silt flow for all the storage reservoirs on the downstream. This is because, the storage dams on the upstream work as watershed management measure for the downstream storage dams. For example, the existence of Tarbela on the upstream will reduce the sediment inflow to Kalabagh being on the downstream. Tarbela would serve as watershed management infrastructure for Kalabagh Dam. Similarly, Basha Dam will serve as watershed management infrastructure for Tarbela Dam. Basha Dam on the upstream, on completion, would increase the life of Tarbela Dam. Katzarah Dam if built will increase the estimated life of 90 years of Basha Dam to about 800 years. 

The Indus originates in Tibet at a height of 18000 feet. It begins its long journey from Singikabad spring. Therefore, watershed management in its most upper mountainous reaches is not possible. Watershed management activities shall therefore, be confined to Pakistan. 

The most vital measure to increase the life span of reservoirs is to select dam site on a river where the Capacity-inflow Ratio of a site is the best. Select a dam site on all rivers where the reservoir storage capacity is larger than the annual river flow at that site. This will create more space for silt deposition and give longer life. This is one of the best solution to stop silt flow, on the downstream. As such, the 35 maf Katzarah Dam is the solution to the silt problem.

Pakistan is most unfortunate to select storage dam site at the tail end of the Indus valley at Kalabagh where sediment load from the Indus is the highest. Kalabagh has the poorest Capacity inflow ratio on the Indus, as its storage capacity is 6.1 maf against the river inflow of about 93 maf. The CI ratio comes to (0.06). The inflow is 15 times more than the storage capacity. It draws silt from a huge catchment area of 110500 squire miles. The reservoir will silt rapidly. It will have a very short life span.

 The annual sediment load at Kalabagh site is 540 million tons that comes to about 0.3 maf each year. This means the storage at Kalabagh will be lost in about 20 years. Dam site in the upper reaches has better Capacity inflow ratio and longer life span. Katzarah Dam site has the best capacity inflow ratio in the entire reach of the Indus River. Katzarah storage capacity is 35 maf where as the river inflow varies between 27 maf to 35 maf. Gomal Dam site at Khajuri Katch discovered by me in 1959 has excellent capacity inflow ratio. The reservoir is many times larger than its annual flow. It will have long life though Gomal River is very silty.

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 Dams are built in USA at sites on rivers that have several times more storage capacities than the river inflow at the dam site. This gives longer life span. Please see table below;

                                    Table showing Capacity inflow Ratio

            Name of       Name of      Storage             Average         Capacity

            Reservoir      River           capacity of       annual            inflow

                                                      Reservoir          run-off           ratio “I”

                                                      In maf “C”        in maf “I”                                                           

            Garrion         Missouri          23.0                17.6                 1.8

           

  Elephant Butt          Rio Grando      2.6                  1.1                    2.4

   Rockland                 Neches              6.9                 1.7                   4.0

   Ford Peck                Missouri            19.4                4.2                   4.6

   Dennison                  Red River          5.5                  4.14                 1.33

   Boulder                     Colorado            34.0                15.0                2.26

   Khajuri Katch           Gomal                 2.7                  0.5                  5.4

  Tarbela                  Indus                    11.6                   67.0                  .017

  Kalabagh               Indus                     6.1                     93                    .06

  Katzarah                Indus                     35.0                   27.0                  1.3

The above chart shows that reservoirs in Pakistan have poor capacity inflow ratio, specially on the Indus River. Therefore, we must be very careful in selecting dam sites from life point of view. The planner should know that the upper dam functions as watershed management structure for the lower dam. In view this, we must start building dams from the upstream of the river so that downstream dams have get longer life span. This arrangement will serve as Water shed Management infrastructures. These conditions are not necessary for a dam built on run-of-the-river for the single purpose of hydropower generation, like Munda Dam.

Pakistan has not realized that its economy and prosperity is based on irrigated agriculture and on the construction of multipurpose dams to store water for agriculture and produce cheap hydropower. Even then, it has created hardly 9% storage of its total runoff from rivers. This is calamitous. Agriculture requires water in time and in proper dozes. Crops require ensured water from storage dams in time. In conditions like in Pakistan, storage dams be created to store at least 40% of the annual runoff if not more. Absence of storage dams for 36 years made Pakistan victim of scarcity of water and crippling load shedding. It also made victim of rapid silting. Besides this, it made Pakistan victim of Inter-provincial Water dispute

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and the victim of the Indus Waters Treaty for the rapid silting of Tarbela dam by 6.6 maf. All this is very alarming.

Silt study on the Indus

It is unknown to many that in late sixtees, Dr Attaullah Former Principle of Engineering collage, Peshawar conducted silt studies on the Indus under the World Bank programme and the Planning Commission of Pakistan. Dr Attaullah findings are that the “source of silt” is the vast Skardu valley as the soil of Skardu valley is one of the highest erodible soil in the world. The Indus River flow carry heavy sediment load from the Skardu valley. Dams on the Indus River in tail reaches will rapidly silted up and shortened the life of reservoirs.

 The best and effective remedy to control silt flow in the Indus River is to submerge the erosive silty Skardu valley by building a high dam at Katzarah having 35 maf storage capacity so that silt flow is stopped and stays in the valley. This is the only remedy to reduce silt flow in the Indus and increase the life of storage dams. Otherwise, all dams built on the Indus will rapidly silt up one after the other. As such, Pakistan will lose all dam sites on the Indus due to rapid silting in 100 years. The irrigation system will then be on run-of-the-river.  

Building Katzarah is the “save Pakistan” project to sustain irrigated agriculture in the Indus basin specially when India has usurped Pakistan share of water from Chenab, Jehlum and Indus Rivers. Dam building should start from the upstream. Basha Dam will prolong the life of Tarbela by 40-50 years and Katzarah will prolong the life of Basha Dam from its 80-90 years estimated life, to 800 years. Tarbela and Kalabagh, both are wrong choice for selecting dams in lower reaches of the Indus. They have the lowest priority. Tarbela would have 5 times more life span if built after Katzarah and Basha. This is what proper planning means.

Rapid silting of dams is an extremely serious matter for the Indus basin irrigation system. Irrigation system to supply timely water to crops depends on long life storage dams to produce optimum food.

The selection of dam site has therefore great bearing on the silting of reservoirs and the Life of the dam, its usefulness for sustained irrigated agriculture to produce food for the rapidly growing population. Silting is destructive for the life of reservoirs and for agricultural development. The death of the reservoir starts the day it is built.

 I advise the Government of Water and Power to select dam sites on merits so that it has long life span. I advise, a priority list of dam sites be prepared, keeping in view the CI ratio. Dams on the upstream increase the life of dams on the downstream. This arrangement, if practiced will make a useless dam site on the downstream, useful.  Capacity inflow ratio must be given the highest priority, it should never be ignored. Presently, dam sites are selected wrongly, without caring for CI ratio with short life span.

Kalabagh and Tarbela Dam on the Indus were selected at random in the lower reach. They have short life span due to rapid silting. Such sites become controversial besides technically doubtful. Kalabagh remained controversial for the past 36 years. This, as a result, caused water shortage and crippling load shedding besides delaying the second dam to be built on the Indus for 36=8+ = 44 years. Locating dams at whims or easy approach to site, ignoring

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long life of the dam, is wrong. This practice must stop in national interest. I believe, load shedding will continue till Katzarah and Basha Dams are built.

I earnestly urge to create Indus Valley Authority (IVA) to plan, and build dams on the Indus wherever feasible, using the entire fall of the Indus River from its extreme head in Pakistan to the tail end of the Indus River valley like the Indian did in occupied Kashmir on Chenab, Jehlum and the Indus River. The Indians are now planning to do the same on Kabul River for Afghanistan. The IVA will also do the same for the Indus River and its tributaries of Swat River, Panjkora River and Chitral River. A 450 high dam may be built on Chitral River at Mirkhani to divert part of its floodwater (4 maf out of 10 maf of the Chitral River annual flow) to the Panjkora River valley through 20 mile long tunnel to be stored in the 8.5 maf Shigo Katch Reservoir of Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River.

I urge an early Water Treaty with Afghanistan. Khalid Aziz former Chief Secretary NWFP prepared a detailed report on Kabul River for Water Treaty with Afghanistan two and a half years ago. The report contained maps, charts, all relevant data, including water data. He submitted the report to all concerned. Khalid Aziz also prepared the inter-provincial Water Accord 1991 intelligently, and made all the fighting parties to agree. A difficult task pending for years was achieved miraculously. He substantially contributed to the settlement of NFC award.

IRSA Member (Federal/CEA) negative role on Ministry’s letter No: 4/18/2002-W.III dated 23 April, 2011 that asked for comments on my proposals to use Chinese Offer on building Katzarah Dam, Guroh Dop Dam and Raised Fateh Barrage

To,

The Secretary,

Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad.

Sub: IRSA Member (Federal/CEA) negative role on Ministry’s letter No: 4/18/2002-W.III dated 23 April, 2011 that asked for comments on my proposals to use Chinese Offer on building Katzarah Dam, Guroh Dop Dam and Raised Fateh Barrage.

Sir,

            IRSA in its letter No: CE(O)/IRSA/79/2416-24 dated 10.5.2011 addressed me that I should  give briefing on  my proposal to use Chinese offer to produce hydropower as the Ministry asked IRSA to examine my proposal and submit comments. The multipurpose proposals consisted of building 35 maf Katzarah Dam generating 15,000 MW, 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam above 500 MW, and 3+3 maf Raised Fateh Barrage generating 2000MW to 6000 MW.

 “that proposal of Mr Fateh Ullah Khan may be examined and comments may please be furnished to Ministry of Water and Power through return fax/email. This may kindly be treated most immediate”.

I gave three hours briefing on the remarkable proposals, and submitted four detailed papers on each dam. Every one present in the briefing agreed. The Authority collectively decided in the meeting to recommend these dams to the Government as proposed by me and to carry out their pre-feasibility reports.

 Chairman IRSA took great interest in discussion. He wished the Authority to go to the Water Advisor so that I also brief the Advisor. As I have a knee joint problem and disable to go to the Secretariat, I requested the Chairman to request the advisor to come down to IRSA office to attend my briefing. The Advisor very kindly agreed and came to IRSA office. I repeated the briefing, and all agreed to send their recommendation to the Ministry. The Authority desired to prepare the pre-feasibility report.

Surprisingly, after few days and out side the Authority, Member Fed/CEO changed his stance as expressed in the briefing. He insisted NOT to give opinion on my proposals to the Ministry by naming the dams as proposed by me and not to name me in the letter without giving any reason. Member Federal/CEO desired that IRSA should recommend  creating 20 maf of storage only, not naming any dam, their storage capacities, power generation, CI ratio, life span, preventing silt flow and other merits. He suggested vague and random reply on such important matter. Federal Member/CEA ignored to comment on the proposals. I unofficially got this information from the office of CEA.

The obstructionist attitude of Federal Member/CEA causes delay so that Chinese run away. What is said after the meeting is unacceptable, as it becomes his personal, biased, and prejudiced views given in my absence. This is why I recommend appointing Chinese or HARZA Consultants to prepare pre-feasibility reports of Katzarah, Guroh Dop Dam and the unique Raised Fateh Barrage.

Yours Sincerely,

Engr Fateh Ullah Khan,  Former Chairman IRSA

BSc Eng (Distinction in Dams and Reservoir Engineering), M.ASCE  (USA), FIE(Pak), Dated 30.5.2011

Copy to:    Advisor (Water)  Riaz Ahmad Khan. Please refer to DAWN dated 29.5.2011 for news item “De-silting to prolong Tarbela Dam’s life”. Tarbela Reservoir has silted up by (11.6-6.7)=5 maf with in 35 years. The 50 miles long silt delta is about 3 Km away from the Power House. By the year about 2035, silt delta will block flow to the powerhouse. This will deprive Pakistan of 3478 MW of power. The unique Katzarah Dam works as Water shed Management Dam in preventing silt flow that will prolong life of all the dams on the downstream. Basha Dam life will increase from 90 years to 800 years and Tarbela by about 50 years. We must use Chinese offer on the multipurpose Katzarah Dam without loss of time.

The need for unique Katzarah Dam, Guroh Dop and Raised Fateh Barrage

Crippling load shedding, acute water shortage, inter-provincial water disputes, Water Accord implementation (paras 2,4, 6, and 14(e), Indian aggression to hold water in occupied Kashmir, planning 12 dams on Kabul River by India, preventing silt flow in the Indus and flood of 2010 that may hit again, urgently require Katzarah dam and many more.  I suggest creating “Indus Valley Authority” to build dams.

Copy to: Chairman IRSA for information. IRSA proposed creating 20 maf storage is a marvelous initiative to implement Water Accord paras 2, 4, and 6. The four dams, namely Basha, Dassu, Bunji and Kohala would collectively store about 20 maf of water, costing about $ 48 billion. These dams are subject to rapid silting, and would lose storage capacity in due course of time. After that, Pakistan has no mega storage dam sites to replenish 20 maf storage.

The only solution is to build the single, unique, 35 maf Katzarah Dam that has a life span of more than 1000 years. It will cost about $12 billion.  After building Katzarah and stopping silt in Skardu valley, all downstream dams will have mostly indefinite life span. Rapid silting of reservoirs with poor CI ratio is the greatest problem faced by Pakistan. Therefore, care be taken in planning dams not to silt rapidly. Besides giving briefing to the Authority and Advisor Water, I have submitted detailed papers on my proposals. I am ready to contribute my 50 years experience with IRSA to overcome water and hydropower shortage besides controlling floods.

Ruination of Indus Basin Irrigation System without its integral component of Drainage System destroying land fertility for the past 150 years

 Ruination of Indus Basin Irrigation System without its integral component of Drainage System destroying land fertility for the past 150 years

We cry for more water being scarce, but we never cared for the fertility of land under irrigated agriculture, and about the wasteful, incompatible and the obsolete Canal Irrigation System in the Indus basin that wastes 45 to 50 maf of water annually. We never cared to provide the missing surface and sub-surface tile drainages system to physically remove salts out of the area. We never cared that the flow of water in canals designed for regime stability (Non-silting non-scouring) no longer holds good because of the changed cropping pattern, the higher intensity of irrigation and changed Kharif Rabi ratio. The fixed agricultural factors in the originally conceived design have drastically under gone changes in the past 150 years. No one realized to modernize the wasteful, incompatible and obsolete canal irrigation system.

Moreover, constant and rigidly fixed flow in the canal no longer meets water requirements of changed cropping pattern, and higher intensity of irrigation as per crop consumptive use in time and in proper dozes. The crops need water as per crop consumptive use, in time, and in proper dozes. The canal irrigation system has become highly wasteful, wasting 50% inflow into it. The canal system has become incompatible in meeting crop water needs and has become obsolete. It therefore requires modernization to supply water as per crop consumptive use, as and when required, in proper doses.

 Moreover, the unscientific system of the supply of water on the basis of WARABANDI, that is the supply of water on the basis of land area irrespective of crop grown and its water needs has to be discorded. There is sky high difference between the use of water 150 years ago, and now, as irrigation practice has turned from art to science. Pakistan has the largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the world but is still without its integral component of Drainage System. More over, there is world of difference of water use in irrigation practice now and 150 years ago when Kharif Rabi ratio and intensity of irrigation was fixed. The entire concept of irrigated agriculture development, and agricultural pattern, has drastically under gone changes since for the past 150 years.

The consequences of incomplete irrigation system and the missing drainage system are:

Large scale salinity, sodicity and water logging of fertile land in the Indus basin

During the past 150 years, huge saline drainage effluent as groundwater has been accumulated due to the absence of Drainage System. The saline drainage effluent was meant for physical evacuation out of the area but is retained and re-used for irrigation in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act of 1887.

The re-use of drainage effluent by installing about one million small tube wells by the farmers, pump about 45 to 50 maf of the saline and saline-sodic drainage effluent into the land injecting 250 million tons of salts into the soil each year. This ruins the fertility of land turning the Indus basin as saline and saline-sodic waste gradually and invisibly.

It is my estimation that within the next 30 years, most of the lands under irrigation in the Indus basin will no longer remain fertile. Pakistan will mostly lose its food basket. Water will be of no use if our fertile lands are lost to salinity and sodicity and if we do not provide surface and sub-surface tile drainage, the missing link and the vital integral component of Canal Irrigation System.

On the land side, land is under deterioration by the obsolete Canal Irrigation System without drainage system, and on the other side, perennial water is diverted from Chinab, Jehlum and the Indus during the winter at critical time of sowing Rabi and early Kharif crops. This means irrigated agriculture is doomed in Pakistan as IWT is violated by India.     

WAPDA conceived wrong drainage projects of SCARPs and again of NDP to remove and control salinity by installing tube wells, a totally wrong concept to evacuate salinity out of the area and maintain salt and water balance at specific depth. This shows WAPDA did not know even the definitions of Drainage, Irrigation, Leaching and Water Management. (I can let you know of these definitions if requested).

WAPDA failed twice to conceive correct drainage system for the irrigation system in the Indus basin to evacuate and control salinity and sodicity. Tube Wells based drainage system on the other hand increased salinity as it is pumping drainage effluent as groundwater and is using it on lands as irrigation water, re-cycling the drainage effluent meant for physical evacuation out of the area.

The well known Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious because it has lost its basic 6.6 maf of storage water due to silting, meant for transfer through link canals to the area of which India diverted its inherent perennial water, thus depriving the area of East Punjab of Pakistan of its thousand years of inherent perennial water rights. The nature of storage water in the IWT is not perennial but is for a fixed time. Storage water cannot be equated to perennial flow. The death of reservoir starts the day it is built. It cannot be equated to perennial flow.

India has built 33 projects in occupied Kashmir, storing 10 maf of dead storage and about 30 maf of live storage on rivers allocated to Pakistan. India will not allow perennial water for Rabi and early Kharif crops. Moreover, India is planning to build 12 dams on Kabul River for Afghanistan. All this is silent water war by India against Pakistan and violation of the IWT.

Treaty or no Treaty, water supply to the East Punjab of Pakistan cannot be stopped as per International laws for lower reparians. Even in the present IWT, (the rights and obligations of each party under this Treaty shall remain unaffected …) (Artcle XI (3).

In case, India is not willing to build the replacement Dam for storage lost due to silting in Pakistan, then India is morally, legally and inherently bound to release irrigation water needed for the area deprived of its inherent water rights at the time of wrong partition of India in 1947 by the British. Pakistan needs water for the area  deprived of water from storage on the Indus either by creating replenishment storage in Pakistan, or release water from India into the Eastern canals of Pakistani Punjab as was available on 1947 and before. The inherent water rights cannot be denied by the change in boundary. Pakistan may take up this issue with India for settlement.

The Ministry of Water and Power Government of Pakistan is advised to carryout Water Management on scientific lines, so as to modernize irrigation system as per the definition of Water Management. See definitions of vital terms in my web site.

Silent Water War by India against Pakistan violating IWT and using Water as Weapon of War

The Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious as it lost its Replacement storage of 6.6 maf but no one took notice of the hidden collapse of the Treaty. Over and above, India has built 3 dozens of dams in occupied Kashmir on Chinab, Jehlum and the Indus Rivers and on their tributaries to hold water, waging silent water war by violating the Indus Waters Treaty and using water as weapon of mass hunger, death and destruction.

India will be able to store about 10 maf of water as “Dead Storage” and about 25 to 30 maf of “Live Storage” on these 33 dams. Under the Treaty, India is only allowed to store 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers. India is allowed run-of-the-river projects that do not allow storage. Water is allowed in the form of PONDAGE and not as STORAGE for hydropower projects. The great number of dams built by India clearly violates the IWT. Storage by these 33 dams will turn Jehlum, and Chinab Rivers as “Seasonal Rivers” for Pakistan in winter during the low supplies period. Seasonal means non-perennial during the winter when river supplies are at the lowest. This is the critical moment in Pakistan to grow Rabi Crops and early Kharif crops. India will withhold water in these dams as illegal storage water about 30 maf against the allowable of 4.19 maf in violation of the Treaty. The dead storage is once but is maintained.

Senator John Kerry confirmed the violation of the IWT while submitting his report to the US Congress. This is a clear proof for violating the Treaty to cause serious damages to the irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin in Pakistan. Storage above 4.19 maf is also clear violation of the Treaty.

India has extended its water war on Pakistan by opening a Western front by planning 12 mega dams on Kabul River in Afghanistan. Here, India plans to create about 5.0 maf storage. All this proves bad intention, waging water war on two fronts, and violation of the IWT. The creation of 5 maf storage on Kabul River means the destruction of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan and the stopping of power generation at Warsak Dam during the low supplies period in winter as power generation at Warsak is on run-of-the-river.

India has silently declared water war on Pakistan on two fronts by attacking three rivers on the Eastern front, and on one river on the Western front. What more reliable proof of aggression and violation of the Treaty is needed? The stoppage of water on all the mega rivers by India flowing in to Pakistan would result in the destruction of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan, depriving Pakistan of its food basket. The consequences would be famine, hunger, poverty and terrorism. It will destroy peace. It will destroy economy. It will encourage and aggravate terrorism extending to India and other countries. Suicide bombers will play their role in the sub-continent. This will destroy India as it has destroyed Pakistan. I fear in such disturbed and poverty-stricken conditions and a state of terrorism, the possibility of nuclear conflict may not be avoided. India should not have a hungry and troubled neighbor, as a hungry neighbor is capable of doing any thing.

Silting of Reservoirs, loss of Replacement storage and No Replenishment of the lost storage under the Treaty makes IWT inefficacious.

The silting of reservoirs show the Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious. The Link Canals are redundant as no Replacement storage is available for transferring water to the deprived area of East Punjab of Pakistan. The East Punjab would become desert as it will be deprived of its established water rights of thousands of years. The winter flows of Chinab and Jehlum Rivers are stopped at critical moment of growing Rabi and Kharif crops as confirmed by Senator John Kerry. It is also confirmed by the planning of 12 dams on Kabul River by India. This shows India has silently waged water war on Pakistan by the wrong-use of the IWT. The Treaty is being misinterpreted and used as a weapon of mass destruction and water is used as a weapon of war for destroying irrigated agriculture in the Indus basin, creating famine in Pakistan. It is a very safe war for India using water as a weapon of hunger against Pakistan.

The silting of Replacement storage is a great set back to the IWT. The Treaty has almost become inefficacious. Pakistan has surrendered perennial water to India. In replacement, Pakistan got storage water for a short period. In view of water rights, Pakistan must get perennial storage in replacement to perennial storage or India must release water to the deprived area of East Punjab in Pakistan as it was available on 1947 and hundreds of years before. 

All this trouble between the two brotherly people is created by the British due to unjust and wrong partition as every one knows. Why not correct this by the mutual consent of both? Why not live in peace?

The solution to this explosive issue is that India offer to vacate occupied Kashmir in replacement to the states of Hydrabad Daccan, Junagarh and Manawadar. The people of the two countries get united in such a way as if it is one country. Ponder! what have we gained in 60 years querrel. Why not feed our hungry. India is advised in our mutual interest to change its aggressive attitude. India did not care for UN resolution. It violated IWT. It is creating a second front of water war by inciting Afghanistan to stop river water flow to Pakistan. India should fear terrorism and suicide bombing growing on its border. India should not aggravate terrorism.

I earnestly appeal some solution may be found short of nuclear war. This will be in the interest of the whole world. Wrong done by the British may be set right. Let us think over the root cause of dispute and try our best to set wrong right. We must think beyond river water that caused these issues. We must addressed the cause for solution and not its consequences. The consequences would disappear when the cause is removed.

  

 Please also keep in view these articles of the Treaty.           

Article III (2) says:

India shall be under obligation to let flow all the waters of Western Rivers, and shall not permit any “interference” with these waters, except for generating hydropower, drinking purposes, agriculture use, restricting storage to 4.19 maf on all six rivers.

Article XI (3) states:  “The rights and obligations of each party under this Treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained in, or by any thing arising out of the execution of, any agreement establishing the Indus Basin Development Funds. (The perennial water rights of each party under the Treaty shall remain unaffected.)

Article XII (3);   The provision of this Treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments.

I am at a loss how to forget the bitter past, and get united with love and respect to each other. God created human being as the most intelligent creation in the universe, and inspired him with Conscience to know what is good for him and what is bad. The whole universe is created for the service of Humankind. Let us not destroy God’s Earth and his creations, as this is His job. If we do not use the gift of Conscience, then there is no difference between the animals and humans. President Obama asked Israil to return to 1947 borders for the sake of peace.   

Engr Fateh Ullah Khan,   Former Chairman IRSA,

B.Sc Eng. (Distiction in Dams and Reservoir Engineering), M.ASCE (USA), FIE (Pak)

Copy to;

The Ministry of Water and Power, Islamabad  for taking notice of the serious situation. The above points in the IWT were never raised before. Please take notice of the silent Water War by India against Pakistan. The violations of the Treaty must be brought to the notice of India for settling the wrong right.

The IRSA for studying the situation in the context of Water Accord and in the context of regulating and monitoring the distribution of water resources of the Indus River in accordance with the Water Accord among the provinces and to provide for matters connected therewith and ancillary thereto. Water Accord will have to be revised, as India will stop the perennial flow of Chinab and Jehlum in winter months at the critical moment of growing Rabi and early Kharif crops. The water availability will not be as of 1991 when Water Accord was drawn. The water availability situation is changing, and would create disputes between the provinces.

The Minister for Water and Power, Naveed Qamar Sahib to bring this matter to the notice of the Prime Minister as it is a very serious matter and should not be left to the routine bureaucratic process. Pakistan was sleeping all the passed 40 years as no dams were built and no water management was carried out. This resulted in floods of 2010 and the crippling load shedding that will never end. What is needed is rapid action, good governance, professional knowledge and keen interest with patriotic zeal.    

Advisor on Water to the Ministry of Water and Power Riaz Sahib with thanks for attending my briefing on Chinese $15 billion offer at IRSA office on 16.5.2011 for producing hydropower and storing water. The inefficaciousness of the IWT and the serious violations of the Treaty by India, diverting winter flows is water war on Pakistan to dry it, and creating famine in the Indus basin by destroying its irrigated agriculture. The Indus basin is the food basket of Pakistan. The Secretary Water, and the Minister for Water may please be briefed on the skillful violations of the Treaty by India and using water as a weapon of hunger and war.

Creation of Gomal Valley Authority for developing South Waziristan Agency and the two Districts of D.I.Khan and Tank

The Districts of D.I.Khan and Tank bordering South Waziristan Agency consist of a vast, barren plain formed by the rich silt deposition  brought by Gomal Zam, Tank Zam, Daraban Zam, Sheikh Hyder Zam and Choudhwan Zam. All these rivers/streams have perennial flow. These rivers cause sever damages during the flood season with heavy soil erosion and ravine formation. These need development to provide source of living for the jobless of SWA to prevent terrorism.

Gomal Zam was the most notorious river causing sever damages to property and the infrastructures. I discovered these five Zams in 1959 and prepared a Master Plan for their development. This Master plan also included the Chashma gravity flow canal and Chashma lift canal to irrigate the entire districts of D.I.Khan and Tank The vast plain of D.I. Khan, Tank and  Kulachi is known as DAMAN.

Gomal Zam has a spectacular dam site at Khajuri Katch. The dam site was first discovered by me in 1959. The Harza International Consultants of USA and the Energoprojekt of Yugoslavia highly appreciated the spectacular, and the narrowest dam site, at Khajuri Katch. Unfortunately, the project was delayed by WAPDA for no reason. The Gomal Zam Dam is completed after 50 years with the USA help.

The region has tremendous potential for irrigated agriculture. Gomal Zam has the storage capacity of 1.14 maf. It will irrigate 163,000 acres of barren lands. Gomal Zam will produce 17 MW of hydropower. It will completely control super floods in Gomal River.

If the five Zams and Chashma lift canal are developed, the entire plain of DAMAN will be brought under perennial irrigated agriculture. It will feed the entire population of South Waziristan Agency and the two districts. It will provide jobs to all jobless people. The poor, the hungry, the one engaged in terrorist activities will be put to useful use. They will be able to earn at their doorsteps. The ferocious Mahsud and Wazir tribes can be put into good condition.

South Waziristan Agency (SWA) has the greatest potential to produce all sorts of fruit, and vegetables. Agro-based industries can be established in SWA. The area is suitable for growing orchards to produce all kinds of fruits, grow vegetables. Dehydration plants can be set up to preserve fruit, vegetables, meet, dates. Fruit can be tanned. Cold storage be built. Cattle and dairy farming can be set up. Poultry farm for various birds can be set up besides apiculture. The savage people of the area will get docile. They will have the source of earning, get education and will become useful citizen. They will avoid extremism and terrorism.

It is therefore suggested to create a “Gomal Valley Authority” responsible to develop SWA and the two districts of D.I.Khan and Tank. GVA will develop the five Zams and the Chashma Lift Canal. All these Zams originate from the Tribal areas. The source of water supply for the Chashma Lift Canal is the Indus River.

The  hydropower generation capacity of the five Zams would be approximately 35 to 40 MW. There is need to generate more power for development of this area. Power can be generated by installing about 40 Wind Mills to produce another 40 MW of power. We have to meet the power needs of agro-based industries and power for lifting water by the Chashma Lift Canal. In addition to this, power would be needed for domestic use. The Chashma Lift Canal will need ensured power supply for irrigated agriculture. This will not be locally available from five Zams. Moreover, Pakistan has already a short fall of 6000 MW to 7200 MW of power. I doubt very much that Pakistan will be able to meet its short fall with in the next 20 years. The GVA will have to meet its own power needs.

The power needs of the Chashma Lift Canal will be a great problem. It cannot be met from the National grid. To meet the power needs of Chashma Lift Canal, some special arrangements shall have to be made by the Gomal Valley Authority. The nearest source and the permanent source of hydropower generation is from the Indus River.

Power Generation by Gomal Valley Authority for the development of South Waziristan Agency

For quick generation of cheap and firm power for meeting the entire needs of the GVA, I propose a unique suggestion to build a 100 feet low dam nearly at the end of the Indus River Valley. On the crest of this low dam, a 50 feet high conventional barrage be built. This hydraulic structure named as “Fateh Barrage” will generate 2000 to 6000 MW of hydropower. The reservoir capacity of the low dam-cum-barrage is nearly 3.0 maf. This can be repeatedly filled during the year, as about 85 maf of water passes at this pivotal point. This hydraulic structure on the Indus will act as balancing reservoir. The power needs of Chashma Lift Canal can be met from this source which is the nearest to the Chashma Lift Canal. The surplus power can be sold to the Government. The unique feature of this project is that it requires no land acquisition, no land compensation as the storage will be with in the Indus River valley. It will be completed with in 3 years at low cost. Surplus power can be sold to the Government of Pakistan.

Let Harza International Consultants investigate and prepare a Master Plan for Gomal Valley Authority to develop this area so that source of earning is available and the extremism and terrorism disappear from this region.  Harza has worked for 40 years in Pakistan and know this area and its problems. If this scheme is not implemented then it will not be possible to execute the Chashma Lift Canal and support the agro-based industries. All lift canal depend on ensured hydropower source.

In my original proposal when I discovered Khajuri Katch dam site, I found at site and suggested to generate more hydropower on the downstream of the main Khajuri Katch Dam that is Gomal Dam, as there is great slope that can be used for more power generation before one reaches Murtaza Weir at the end of the valley.

We can also generate power from the wind. During winter, wind from Gomal valley blows for long time. This wind is locally called, “Gomal wind”. We can install a number of wind mills to produce power.

Gomal Zam causes huge flood damages to property and infrastructures, beside soil erosion and ravine formation. This is prevented,, as the 2010 flood has shown. There are no damages.

The development of this area will contribute to the improvement of the environment. This will also contribute to mitigate climate change. It will be a food basket for the province.

Pakistan will be short of water during the Rabi and early Kharif crops sowing, as India has built dozens of dams in the occupied Kashmir on Pakistani Rivers in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. Therefore, the economic development of SWA and the two districts is highly essential. It will provide jobs to tribal people in their hometown. This will be a great achievement, as it will bring peace in the region.

As water from the Gomal reservoir is silt free, therefore, I recommend to irrigate the area by Sprinkler and Drip irrigation method instead of flood irrigation. The new method will irrigate more than two times the area irrigated by flooding land.

Moreover, I recommend to carry water in pipe supply instead of watercourses. This will save water from seepage, and evaporation, as the temperature is very high in this region. The main canals and the distributaries must be lined to save water from wastage.

I further suggest that this area be quickly developed to curb terrorism and be a model for the rest of Pakistan on scientific lines of Integrated Comprehensive Water Management. The owners of land are extremely poor. Therefore, the development of land on some sort of cooperative basis will be necessary for achieving optimum benefit. If necessary, some law be enforced to develop this area as one unit. The development should not be left to the poor owners who will never take benefit of this great opportunity.         

Chinese offer and cooperation in Power Generation to invest $15 bn

Ref:  The Daily The NEWS and DAWN. “China willing to invest $15 bn in energy sector” 

The Chairman State-owned Three Gorges Project Corporation (CTGPC), head of the Chinese delegation to Pakistan discussed with Finance Minister the Kohala, Bunji, Dashu, Basha and other hydropower projects in the Indus valley. Surprisingly, they ignored the unique, 35-maf Katzarah Dam, capable of generating 15,000 MW of power on the Indus, located 20 miles on the down stream of Skardu.

It is astonishing that WAPDA who is responsible to generate power but failed to generate, is putting hurdles, arguing that ground of urgency do not exist so as to confer any waiver from the PPRA rules. What more urgency could be when 6 to 20 hours load shedding is carried out daily. This will further increase as population is increasing. We are pushed to the stone age. The national economy is destroyed. The power needs with in 8 years will be doubled. The Two Days Holiday to overcome power shortage is a ridiculous solution for relief. The Chairman CTGPC may be allowed to build dams on war footing on the Indus to remove not only the acute power shortage but also water shortage. In such matters, the case should be referred to National Assembly in the form of a bill rather getting bogged down in the quagmire of rules.

I suggest, that instead of building Kohala, Bunji. Dashu , costing about $36bn, build a single, unique, multipurpose dam at KATZARAH costing $12bn. It will generate up to 15,000 MW of power, create 35 maf storage, control silt flow from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley, increase life of Basha from 80 years to 8oo years, extend life of Tarbela by 60 years, and control supper floods like of 2010. Moreover, it will irrigate 5 million acres of barren lands, including the Kachi plain in Baluchistan. But WAPDA is allergic to this unique dam. Please get comments on Katzarah from some foreign consultants. Dr Pieter Lieftnic recommended it in 1968. I discovered it in 1961.

Please get comments from IRSA, the highest, five-member technical body in the country. Chairman WAPDA is only an ex-officio Member of IRSA. There is dire need to shift WAPDA Head quarter to Islamabad as of IRSA for greater cooperation, avoid delay, avoid wrong planning of mega projects. Dams are necessary to get Water Accord paras 2, 4, 6 and 14(e) implemented besides generating hydropower. Implementation of para 2, needs 12.35 maf of storage. The silting of dead and live storage needs 6.75 maf storage. Environmental need  downstream Kotri needs 10 maf. Therefore implement para 4, 6 and 14(e) of the Water Accord.     

I further suggest to build multipurpose Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River, only about 5 miles upstream of Munda to control devastating floods in Kabul River. WAPDA is unaware of Guroh Dop dam site. For the time being, instead of Munda, Guroh Dop be implemented.

Mid-term, unique hydropower project of “Raised Fateh Barrage” at the tail end of the Indus valley

I further suggest, comparatively a quick hydropower Project of “Raised Fateh Barrage”, a combination of low dam-cum-barrage over the crest of the dam in the Indus valley where the waterway is confined. The structure will serve as a high conventional barrage. The project involves a 100 high dam with a conventional barrage over the crest of the dam. The 100 feet high dam will silt up. Only the barrage will function. It will be a run-of-the-river project, generating hydropower ranging from 2000 MW minimum to 6000 MW. It will have a storage capacity of about 3.0 maf that can be refilled two or three times a year due to its pivotal location as the entire flow of Kabul River and the Indus River pass through this site. This project will serve as balancing reservoir for Tarbela Dam and others on the upstream.

It requires no land acquisition as storage reservoir will be with in the valley. It involves no land compensation. There is no silt problem in this barrage. It may cost $3bn and 4 years to complete. The barrage will function as a key storage structure in regulation and distribution of water among the provinces. The multipurpose barrage will facilitate IRSA job of water regulation at critical moments at the growing of Rabi and early Kharif and help avoid crop failure. It will also regulate maximum and minimum daily power requirements.

Indus Water Treaty may fail to avert Water wars as Dams building in occupied Kashmir has given India the ability to stop water to Pakistan at crucial moments

                   (John F, Kerry Reports to US Senate Committee)

IWT has ceased to function due to silting and for stoppage of Chenab and Jehlum waters at crucial moments

I wonder if the Government of Pakistan has taken any serious view of John Kerry’s horrible report of what India has cleverly planned to convert Pakistan into desert by drying the world’s largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the Indus basin feeding 30 crores people of this region including FATA and Afghanistan. John Kerry informed the Senate Committee  that “India has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moments in the growing season”. India has inflicted on Pakistan, a long war of starvation by stopping river waters for Rabi and early Kharif crops. Surprisingly, USA knows more about Pakistan whereas the Pakistani Government is unaware and unconcerned of this destructive crisis that may lead to water war of extinction.

 It is shocking that all concerned are intoxicated with corruption, poor governance, no patriotism, no foresight and no supervision. The Ministries of Foreign Affairs, Water, Agriculture and Planning besides the Commissioner water have taken no notice of this colossal water issue developed in 40 years till India build hundreds of dams.

Pakistan has already lost about 7.0 maf of replacement storage due to rapid silting of Tarbela and Mangla that ceases the IWT to function. Besides this, huge perennial flow of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers are stored in occupied Kashmir in the form of huge Dead storage and huge Live storage by building hundreds of dams on the Western Rivers. This means, there will be no water for growing Rabi and early Kharif crops The cockeyed concerned officials have not realized the grave consequences of creating unique water issue by India to destroy Pakistan using water as a weapon of death and starvation.

It means Jinnah’s Pakistan lost perennial water for its sustenance after losing East Pakistan due to the negligence of the successive Governments. The Indus Waters Treaty is not followed properly in its execution through capable water resource engineers. Moreover, it is not defended through learned advocates in courts. The IWT lacked patronage of the Presidents and Prime Ministers after the 1965 war with India.

The article XI

Refer to section (3). It says, “The rights and obligation of each party under this Treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained in, or by any thing arising out of the execution of, any agreement establishing the Indus Basin Development Fund.

Article XII (3). It says, “The provision of this Treaty may from time to time be modified by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose between the two Governments”.

No one initiated how to replenish the lost replacement storage due to silting under the Treaty?. Moreover, Pakistan never asked for ratification of the Treaty for the two major happenings. The one silting of replacement reservoirs and the other stoppage of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers water at the critical moment of sowing Rabi and Kharif crops as reported by John Kerry.

The rights and obligation of Pakistan in perennial waters of the three Eastern Rivers, exchanged for two replacement dams with stored waters at Tarbela and Mangla and transferred through barrages and link canals to the area fed by Eastern Rivers cannot be denied or stopped. Tarbela and Mangla are silted up by about 7.0 maf. This needs replenishment to keep the rights and obligation of Pakistan intact under the Treaty to feed the area fed by the Eastern Rivers in Pakistan. On the contrary, India has stored the waters of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers in violation of the Treaty. As a consequence of silting and stoppage of water by India, the Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious. The Treaty needs ratification under Article XII (3) by replenishing 7.0 maf of storage dams on the Indus and allow uninterrupted perennial flow of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers, exchanged for the perennial flow of the Three Eastern Rivers that irrigated area of East Punjab.            

The US has arrived at a conclusion that Waters war cannot be averted over occupied Kashmir as India has attained the ability to dry Pakistan.

 I foresee nuclear war in the near future if Kashmir is not vacated by India. Water issue erupted, as a consequence of forcible occupation of Kashmir due wrong, unjust, un-natural division of India by the British who seeded nuclear war in the sub-continent while leaving it.

Find out what will be the consequences if 40 nuclear bombs explode on earth within 20 minutes. India and Pakistan will be wiped out and the whole earth becomes radioactive, and inhabitable. There is precedence of nuclear bombing. The West has come to rescue Libya but not to Pakistan over Kashmir where 200,000 Kashmiris are killed by Indian Army. Moreover, no one implemented the UN resolution on Kashmir in 62 years. Let world leaders do something if they really want to avert nuclear war.

John Kerry has acknowledged, “that dams building in occupied Kashmir has given India the ability to stop water to Pakistan at critical moments. This shows the IWT has failed to avert water wars”.

Permanent peace in world’s interest, is only possible, if India vacates occupied Kashmir which it captured by force and killed 200,000 innocent Kashmiri during its undue occupation. India has complete control on the source of origin of our six rivers that are flowing into Pakistan.

India has occupied by force Hydrabad state, Junagarh and Manawadar states and no body blamed India.

The Indus Waters Treaty has become inefficacious due to silting, as its lost storage is not replenished. It has further  became ineffective due to the stoppage of perennial waters by India, mainly of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers for growing Rabi crop and early Kharif crops on account of creating huge Dead storage and Live storage by damming all rivers and their tributaries. Pakistan throughout remained unaware. What a crime committed by the State with the people due to governance failure?

        

It is obvious that starvation due to stoppage of water in Pakistan will also starve FATA, and Afghanistan. India will subject this region to famine. The region is already disturbed due to war on terror not for self-defense but for others. There is terrorism, suicide bombing, kidnapping because of poverty, ignorance and foreign interference. If India creates famine in Pakistan, the fighting forces in the region will unite, create a new environment for getting food and most probably infiltrate into India to play their role by uniting with Pakistan. Water stoppage and starvation will therefore prove as double- edged sword for India. May be, it is followed by nuclear war of destruction of South Asia affecting the entire environment of earth by dangerous radiation and may extinct life on earth. No one likes this holocaust but death of aggrieved due to starvation will use nuclear weapons to cause the death of aggressor, not caring that others will also be destroyed. As such, it needs a compromise that India should vacate Kashmir to solve water issue. UN resolution must be implemented to bring peace in Asia and on earth.     

UK is guilty of this crime as it divided its former subjects of two faiths (Muslims and Hindus)  by favouring the Hindus. Britain has sown the seed of war by handing over the head works of canals, and the source of origin of the six rivers to India in an un-natural, unjust, hydraulically and geographically wrong patrician of India. John Kerry report to USA Senate makes it clear that “India has obtained the capability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moments in the growing season”.

To set a wrong right, I urge USA, UK and UN to do justice, make India understand to hand over Occupied Kashmir to Pakistan to avoid starvation in the region and the impending nuclear war. The West immediately came to help Libya, why not to Pakistan and Kashmir.