Global warming will reduce about 40% of Pakistan's surface Water

Global warming and glacial melting is life threatening climatic change and environmental calamity on earth. It would imbalance and adversely change water cycle on earth affecting irrigated agriculture. Unfortunately, Pakistan is located in a region that would be worst affected by global warming. Its agriculture is already water stressed and suffers due to shortage of water, increasing soil salinity due to lack of surface and sub­surface tile drainage and the massive use of 45 maf of injurious saline drainage effluent as groundwater for irrigation. Pakistan has the world’ largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the world and about 70% of its population are engaged on irrigated agriculture. Water is the basic and vital input of agriculture but is scanty and highly mismanaged and ill planned like power generation.

The global warming and glacial melting would drastically reduce surface water of about 142 maf by about 40% or 52 maf in the supply-based canal irrigation system. This means the available 142 maf of water would reduce to about 90 maf. This 90 maf of water diverted in canal system is again subjected to 50% water wastage in the 150 years old, incompatible, seeping and obsolete supply-based canal irrigation system. Therefore, net water available to crops would reduce to only about 45 maf. Out of this, about 10 maf of water is consumed by the 30 crores of population by the year 2040 besides the industrial use. The water left for crops at the field would be 35 maf. This scanty and small quantity of water would only cover  irrigated area of about 25% in the Indus basin. The remaining 75% of canal irrigated area would have no water. This means the whole of Sindh and half of Punjab would become desert due to lack of water. Therefore, all water wastage must be avoided, as water reduction due to global warming would be un-reversible calamity.

In spite of such water crisis, toxic effluent from industrial waste and cities are disposed of in Pakistan's rivers, streams and canals water as there is no arrangement for the treatment and disposal of toxic waste. The polluted canal water would produce poison containing crops, vegetables and fruits grown on poisoned land, and contaminate the surface and sub-surface water for drinking. As a consequence, it would cause starvation due to famine, death, heat, thirst, diseases, disputes and large-scale population migration.

Global warming has no quick and cheap remedy, therefore the Government is advised to pay serious attention for its preventive measures to minimize its severity. This is direly essential as population by the year 2040 would be doubled to 30 crores and surface water reduced to 35 maf to cover 25% of the existing irrigated area.

The only hope to increase the availability of water is to save most part of the 45 maf of water lost due to seepage in the 150 years old,  obsolete, wasteful and incompatible supply-based canal irrigation system. The quantity of water for irrigation in the Indus basin can therefore be increased by modernizing the supply –based irrigation system by saving water lost due to seepage.

It is direly essential to replace the supply-based system with the demand based canal irrigation system as part of integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM). The demand based canal system, storage dams like Katzarah, drainage system and efficient use of water through sprinkler and drip irrigation methods on healthy land are vital components of ICWM. The ICWM would save about 45maf that is wasted due to seepage in canal conveyance system. In this way the total water available at the farm gate would be (45+35)=80 maf. Deducting 10 maf for population consumption and industrial uses, the balance comes to 70 maf. The 70 maf of water must further be used by sprinkler and drip irrigation methods to cover 2 to 3 times more area than by flood irrigation. Sindh province may hope to use seawater after de-salinization.

Nuclear war on water rights in South Asia

Unjust partition of India by Britain created Water issues and Kashmir dispute

The British Government is blamed for the wrong partition of India and Pakistan by handing over Kashmir (the Muslim majority area) to India. India got the control of six rivers in occupied Kashmir as that originate from there. The Head Works of Pakistani canals are also handed over to India. This injustice is of criminal nature as it has created water conflict. Wrong partition is perpetual and the potential source of war. It may lead to nuclear war if quick and lasting solution of Kashmir dispute and water issues are not found. The British cartographers failed to consider the-run-of-the rivers while partitioning the sub-continent. The control over the area where the water headwaters lie was unjustly given to India with the intension to sow the seed of conflict. The Indian armed forces about 800,000 forcibly occupied the Muslim majority area of Kashmir and killed hundred thousands of inocent  people who want freedom.

The irrigation from the Indus system of rivers is the lifeline of civilization in what is now Pakistan since 2600 B.C. The British have sown the germs of future conflict in South Asia. Water is the source for survival without which Pakistan will almost turn into desert and its 200 million populations would face famine, and hunger and would be forced to become terrorists.

Many experts fear that one day the dispute over water - already an incessant source of diplomatic skirmishes - will propel these two nuclear weapons states into all-out war if reasons fail to settle the issues of Kashmir and water in time. Kashmir where these rivers originate is vital for Pakistan, as it is a matter of survival for Pakistan.

India planned to use water as a weapon of starvation and mass destruction, silently by building dozens of dams on main rivers and their branches to hold water,  changing the natural course of rivers, building a huge network of water storage facility, the national river linking projects would create shortage of water in Pakistan, turning its millions of irrigated lands almost go dry. The two major rivers of Pakistan, Chenab and Jhelum, are turning seasonal rivers or non-perennial as winter discharges are stored by dams in occupied Kashmir.  The people would starve and out of shear compulsion, this situation may lead to a nuclear war. India forcibly occupied Kashmir, Hyderabad Dacan, Junagarh and Manawadar states. Morally it is the British Government responsibility to pressurize India to vacate the forcible occupation of Kashmir. Help of UN may be sought to solve Kashmir and water issues. Kashmir and water are not separate issues. This is because all of Pakistan's water resources originate from Kashmir, a Muslim majority area forcibly occupied by India. The very partition of India was based on the Muslim majority or Hindu majority areas. Pakistan being a peaceful country kept quiet when Indian Army forcibly occupied the State of Hyderabad Daccan and the State of Junagarh and Manawadar though that acceded to Pakistan. India being unreasonable violated this principle by occupying the Muslims majority areas. This shows India is aggressive and has no principles.

India violated UN resolution on Kashmir that created water issues

Moreover, India has refused to implement the UN resolution for referendum in Jammu and Kashmir for the last about 62 years. This created water issue. Indian army forcibly occupied Kashmir, killed hundreds and thousands of innocent Kashmiris. No one in the world raised voice to oppose the massacre. Coercion of this type leads to war.

India violates Indus Waters Treaty creating water issues and change in environment

Over and above, India is aggressively violating the Indus Waters Treaty by wanton building of dams on all rivers and their tributaries. India is building dozens of dams on the three Western Rivers allocated to Pakistan besides building dams on the three Eastern Rivers allocated to India. India is storing water that adversely affects irrigated agriculture in Southern Punjab of Pakistan. India is violating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by changing the natural course of the Indus River and other rivers allocated to Pakistan by diverting their flow through long tunnels. This is illegal, and is against the spirit of Treaty. India is restricted to build dams for hydropower generation on the main stem of three Pakistani rivers to create 2.85 maf storage and not more than that. Similarly, it can create  1.34 maf of storage on the three Eastern rivers. India cannot create more than 4.19 maf storage for power generation by building dams. Against this,  India illegally created 10 maf of dead storage and 12 of maf live storage so far by building hundreds of dams.  The number of dams construction by India is restricted to create aggregate storage of 4.19 maf and not more than that. This restricts the number of dams on each river.

The Treaty only allows generation of hydropower on run-of-the-river through the construction of low dams and NOT very high dams that create huge dead and live storage. India is not allowed to divert water of a river and change its natural course from the main stem of the Indus and other rivers. Therefore, the Treaty does not allow to build 829 feet high Bursar dam and 475 feet high Baglihar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan as this will create huge dead storage and live storage, depriving Pakistan of its water. A 22 Km long tunnel is to divert Neelum-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan's 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum Project. India has taken in hand the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric Power Project with a high dam.

The aggregate dead storage capacity created by all the projects is roughly estimated to be about 10 maf. The live storage created by all projects originating in Kashmir is roughly estimated to be about 12 maf. Such storage by building more dams will further increase. The Treaty allows India to use 2.85 maf of water on the three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf of water on the three Easter Rivers. The total comes to 4.19 maf. Hence, India uses extra live storage waters of about 8 maf that belongs to Pakistan besides withholding 10 maf of dead storage.

This may still increase as many dams on all the six rivers are planned for construction. The benefits from one maf of water is equal to $ 2 billion. This means India inflicted a loss of $20 billion once for the dead storage and annual recurring loss of $16 billion for using perennial live storage water that belongs to Pakistan.

India has embarked upon the construction of a huge network of water storage facility, the national river linking project at an estimated cost of $120 billion likely to be completed by 2016. It includes the construction of Basrur multi-power project, Siwalkot dam, Dul hasti dam, Dugar dam, Gandhala dam, Reoli/Dugli dam, Sachkhas dam, Tandi dam, Teling Tinget dam, Seli dam, Raoli dam, Kirthal hydropower project and Pakot Dul dam on Chenab River. This is in addition to the already built 475 feet high Baglihar Dam and the proposed 829 feet high Bursar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. According to information, India is starting the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric power project high dam on Chinab River. India is building dams, using full potential slope of each river and their tributaries. This is blatant violation of the Treaty and is very dangerous. It is to deprive Pakistan of irrigation water as much as possible using aquatic bomb to cause starvation in Pakistan that can lead to nuclear war.

In view of the above multiple violations of the Treaty and injustices and deprivations, Pakistan will have to choose either to become almost a desert subjecting most of its 200 million populations to die a miserable death due to hunger or die in an imposed nuclear war. The result would be the elimination of most of 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent by a horrible nuclear war. It is therefore not good for India to fight a war of nerves but to make a quick, just, and reasonable settlement of Kashmir that would solve water issue. If Kashmir issue is settled, then there will be no war but permanent peace and the two nuclear countries would prosper.

Famine due to shortage of water to create food riots

There is yet another impending danger of unrest when water shortage would cause famine in Pakistan. It will adversely affect Fata, and Afghanistan. The danger is that the hungry tribal people of Fata, Pakistan and Afghanistan would try to enter India for search of food. There will be population movement in search of food involving change in environment. Hunger, ignorance and poverty would compel these people to restart terrorist activities once again if they do not get food and jobs. These people got training to fight Russians when Russia attacked Afghanistan, and after the defeat of Russians USA has made the same mistake to fight them. USA got help of Pakistan in this aimless war, both suffered heavily.

In Afghanistan and in Tribal areas of Pakistan, children born during war are born fighters that become terrorists due to hunger, illiteracy and poverty. These people are fierce and formidable born gorilla fighters. It is learnt, they have still a force of 10,000 suicide bombers as they claim. These people would go after food and create chaos in India. Pakistan Army mostly Pathans fought these terrorists successfully as fighters on both sides are Pathans and are equally fierce and formidable. Let us avoid this situation as it could be prolonged for 20 to 30 years as in Ireland and in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan. Afghanistan and Fata depends for food grains on Pakistan. Therefore, its irrigated agriculture should not be harmed that feed these people, and to contain them in their areas. Multipurpose dams must be built to irrigate barren areas, generate cheap hydropower, built factories and create jobs, earn money, get education. The terrorism would automatically disappear. The real solution to terrorism lie in water and hydropower development. This will create jobs, generate income, and education will bring sanity and peace.

Every new dam built by India aggravates conflict in South Asia. There is planned move by India to starve Pakistan by destroying its largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the world with the weapon of aquatic bombs. Water is the most political weapon and is the source of conflict in South Asia. A hungry man fights without caring for consequences. Many world powers feared the dispute would go towards nuclear war.

Over and above, the climate change would play havoc with irrigated agriculture. On the other hand, India has reduced the flow of rivers by building dozens of dams on each river. Most of the rivers waters come from disappearing glaciers of Himalayas as these glaciers are extremely vulnerable to climate change.

It is estimated that the flow of rivers may reduce by about 40% to 50% in the second phase of global warming. The first phase of global warming is the melting of glaciers that would cause sever floods.

Kashmir is a matter of life and death for Pakistan. Water issue and Kashmir cannot be separated. Pakistan cannot survive without these. May be the nuclear neighbours go to war. It is therefore necessary that international powers who share the earth with Pakistan and India should influence India to settle Kashmir issue as it is pre-requisite for solving water issue.

America the most influential and powerful State in the world who is friend to India and Pakistan must help solve the 62 years old Kashmir problem if it is interested to avoid nuclear war that would destroy the whole environment on earth. A settlement of Kashmir is also in the interest of USA and the whole world as war would destroy environment on earth and trigger climate change in its worst form. The British Government who created this problem knowingly should help settle the issue of Kashmir and water by joining USA, the UN and other countries. These two nations along with the UN must negotiate to settle these problems and to avoid nuclear conflict. Nuclear war is international problem.

Pakistan already heavily suffered due to war against terrorism, poor economy, and water and energy issues. Fight against terrorists has caused the Government and the people billions of dollars loss besides colossal damages to infrastructures. This is besides 3500 troops killed including Brigadiers. The number of injured is in thousands. About 50,000 civilians are killed and about 4 million populations have been displaced due to war. About 70% of houses, schools, hospitals, bridges and roads are destroyed. Due to scarcity of funds, Pakistan is using money reserved for its development. The world powers are not giving promised funds to Pakistan though war is forced on Pakistan. Pakistan is not fighting its own war but is fighting to save others. Pakistan is pushed in to  quagmire. *

The intension of India is to throttle Pakistan by reducing its water so that Pakistan faces deadly famine along with crippling load shedding. Events and circumstances would compel Pakistan to fight a nuclear war sooner or later for its survival irrespective of its consequences, as Pakistan would face death by famine or death by nuclear war. India is a country with extremist elements that do not care world opinion. It will continue building dams, continue forcible occupation of Kashmir against the wishes of the people and go on violating the Indus Waters Treaty and the UN resolution. India will violate international laws on water for lower riparian country. These are issues to trigger war.

India has no intention to implement UN resolution on Kashmir so that water issue is solved. India does not believe in reasons and do not foresee the grave outcome of unsolved serious and chronic issues like water and Kashmir. Britain and USA must seriously pressurize India to hand over Kashmir to Pakistan to prevent nuclear war. India has already captured the two states of Hyderabd Dacan, Junagarh and Manawadar that acceded to Pakistan by force. Let the dispute be settled by the world nations to avoid horrible nuclear war when the whole world would suffer.

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan should send shivers around the world as it would damage the whole environment on earth. After all, we are talking not only about the destruction of a continent but of the whole earth itself. This war will not be like the two mini atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by USA to stop world war II.

There is a precedence of nuclear bombing, and this time dozens of powerful nuclear bombs would be used to destroy each other's country and population. India would suffer many times more for its 1.2 billion populations, its heavy industries, huge storage dams that would bring chaotic radioactive floods. It would be horrible. Therefore, the issue of Kashmir and water should not be pushed to climax. Safety of the sub-continent lies in settlement of Kashmir that in turn would solve water issue peacefully.

The sever radiation from nuclear explosions would cause catastrophic climate change on earth. Therefore, it is not a destructive war for Pakistan and India alone, but it will equally destroy countries on earth. I warn Britain, USA, the UN and all countries of the world to help settle the issues of Kashmir and water. The UN resolution must be implemented.

In the mean time, the Indus Waters Treaty should immediately be racktified/modified as Pakistan's water rights of perennial storage water must perennially be ensured to the limit that India diverted the perennial flow of the three Eastern Rivers. The silting of reservoirs in Pakistan is a continuous process. Pakistan will therefore permanently suffer due to the shortage of water on account of silting of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs. Pakistan would need perpetual replenishment of storage lost due to silting of Tarbela and Mangla. If this is not done, the Treaty automatically dies. How would India or the World Bank or the UN would compensate and make available perennial water to Pakistan lost due to silting in Replacement reservoirs, in place of perennial water taken by India of the three Eastern Rivers? The Indus Water Treaty guarantees perennial water to Pakistan. How would this condition be implemented when Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs are silted up? I believe the Treaty would end or water from the three Eastern Rivers should be restored to pre-partition flow as in August 1947. 

The problem will always stay alive. Over and above this, India has planned to cut off water supply from all the six rivers to convert Pakistan into almost a desert to starve its population. This is going to happen by the year 2016 as planned by India as it turned Chenab and Jhelum rivers as seasonal rivers, stopping their winter flows so that Rabi crop is not sown in Pakistan.

As a consequence, a horrible nuclear war can be waged in self defense against water terrorism, alternately India may coolly ponder over the situation and gracefully hand over Kashmir to Pakistan in exchange for the two States of Hyderabad and Junagarh. We are neighbours and brothers, and therefore should do justice to each other for the sake of peace to achieve prosperity of the 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent.

If Kashmir and water issues are not settled, the loser will be India who is planning to become world power. Pakistan is not in that class. Pakistan will choose to die of starvation or in a nuclear catastrophe. It will be in the interest of India and Pakistan to settle the issues of Kashmir and water gracefully so that permanent peace is assured in the sub-continent.

Nuclear conflict would destroy earth's environment by radiation if water issues and Kashmir dispute not solved

The change in environment due to nuclear conflict will not be like the change in environment due to global warming, glacier melting and climate change on account of carbon emission. Moreover, efforts are being made to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming and climate change.

The change in environment due to nuclear conflict using a dozen bomb from each side would be fetal and disastrous due to radiation. The radiation will kill people. Radioactivity will not only destroy environment of the sub-continent, South Asia, but of the whole earth. Increase in radiation will destroy most of the living creature on earth. It will kill animal life, plant life, marine life and the humankind. It will change the weather pattern. Rainfall would be radioactive. Radioactivity may even change the genetic of living creatures including humankind. It will create large scale abnormalities and diseases in living creatures. Man will misuse nuclear power for self- destruction. This would be most inhuman.

The mischief-makers will destroy human race for water politics and self-interest. Land will be unable to grow crops. Sources of drinking water will become radioactive. Humankind is one community, and the earth is the home of humankind. Let us not destroy our earth. Let us live like human beings and settle our disputes without war, as war is not paying. God inspired Conscience in man to know what is good for him and what is bad (Quran). All other creatures on earth have no Conscience, no Spirit but Life is common to all living creatures. God favoured Humankind with Conscience. He knows what is right and what is wrong. I pray peace prevails.

Pollution of rivers & canals by toxic waste grow toxic Crops

Poisonous Rivers

Pollution of rivers, streams and canals is caused, by the indiscriminate dumping of un-treated municipal and industrial toxic waste in them. Therefore, the nullahs, streams, canals & rivers function as the drains to carry the toxic effluent being used to irrigate land and then fall into the sea, taking toll of marine-life as well. Surprisingly, the country classified main natural surface drains & the subsidiary drains have disappeared due to encroachments, negligence and silting. The waterways of these drains are blocked and turned in to built up area. The rivers, canals, streams and drains water is polluted with various poisons making it hazardous for drinking purposes & irrigation uses damaging human health, and animal health besides contaminating crops. The hazardous toxic waste, grow toxic containing vegetables, fruit & crops for human consumption. It is therefore necessary to keep rivers and canals water free of pollution.

Amazingly, no essential man-made surface & sub-surface tile drainage system is provided to safely evacuate the toxic waste and the injurious saline drainage effluent from the Indus basin. The grave problems of missing natural & man-made-drainage systems & the pollution of rivers, canals, streams, drains and lake water, by toxic waste & the accumulation of drainage effluent as groundwater are very serious issues needing immediate Government attention. The natural surface drainage system that disappeared need revival to the original depth & width of waterways that are blocked for lack of maintenance violating the "Canal & Drainage Act of 1887".

The toxic industrial and municipal wastewater, fall into the Kabul River, the Indus River, the Jehlum River, the Chinab & Ravi Rivers. The Manchar lake and Hudiara drain are examples of pollution. So much so that DDT is dumped in the Malir River area. The Upper Chinab canal, Noorpur canal, Ludhaywala Minor and Mian Singh Minor canal are severely polluted. This is because there are no natural drains, and the essentially required separate man-made drainage system, for the evacuation of drainage effluent. Therefore rivers, streams and canals are polluted that ultimately pollute the sea, destroy fish & other marine life besides damaging crops, the Indus delta, the mangroves and Karachi harbour. Dolphin is disappearing from the Indus due to river pollution. The pollution is maximum at the out fall of the Indus into the sea. It is therefore direly essential that the toxic wastewater effluent must be treated first so as not to pollute surface and sub-surface water before it falls into the sea to harm marine life. The necessary treatment of pollution would protect the deteriorating Indus delta as well. Toxic waste is poison and therefore should never be allowed to fall in canals. Hepatitis is wide spread as surface and sub-surface water is polluted by the pollutants.

The vegetables and crops grown by the untreated polluted rivers and canals water contain more iron (Fe), excessive quantities of nickel (Ni), and cadmium (Cd) besides chromium (Cr), lead (Pb), manganese (Mn), arsenic (As), nitrates and fluorides and traces of mercury (Hg). The groundwater, because of fluorides poison, causes bone deformities. Moreover, the pH value of water used is as high as 13. The vegetables grown on land with toxic water contain heavy metals. The drinking water is microbiologically unfit for human consumption. The 80 to 100 percent wastewater samples exceed the permissible limits of heavy metals.

Punjab with maximum number of Industries of all sorts is the major source of contributing surface & sub-surface water pollution and Sindh including its own waste flow is the drainage bowl of wastewater pollution from the whole of the Indus basin polluting its surface & sub-surface water. The remedy lies in treating the toxic wastewater effluent before it is released.

The pollution is rapidly spreading and concentrating due to lack of proper treatment of toxic waste effluent from industries and cities. Moreover, the lack of proper drainage system both natural and man-made has further aggravated the problem. Therefore, the land, the surface water, the sub-surface water that is the groundwater, and the sea go on polluting that affect agricultural crops as well as marine life with increased chlorides and sulfates in seawater. The use of chemical fertilizers on land and the use of chemical spray on crops further aggravate pollution of land and water by the pesticides and insecticides laden run-off. The toxic waste from tanneries like sulfuric acid, hydrochloric acid, sodium carbonate, lime, soda ash and alkalies are thrown into the canal. The cattle that drank contaminated water produce contaminated milk. The biodegradable polyethylene bags block drainage system and aggravate pollution. Incinerators should be used for their disposal.

The increasing pollution of air by smoke emitting vehicles and from other sources, with rainwater further add pollution to river and canal water, agricultural land, surface water and groundwater as there is no infrastructure for evacuating polluted drainage effluent out of the area.

No action is taken to control noise, air, land, water and food pollution besides sea pollution. Food adulteration knowingly by man is yet another unchecked pollution in Pakistan. The 18 crores of population is being injected slow poising. The toxic wastewater passing through the Indus delta is ultimately dumped into the sea damaging marine life.

At present we in hale polluted air, drink polluted water, irrigate land with polluted water to grow polluted crops and eat polluted food produced on polluted land and water. The polluted air, water, land, crop and food turn as weapons of mass destruction invisibly and slowly. The over all pollution of environment adversely affect humans, animals, plant and marine life. The consumption of polluted air, food and water with excessive harmful elements work as  biocidal agents that adversely affect human blood chemistry, biology, biochemistry and bio- environment that causes physical and mental diseases. Moreover, all life form on earth is exposed to the dangerous radiation from the damaged ozone layer due to mankind self destroyed activities on earth. Global warming is yet another calamity generated as a consequence of misuse of the environment and by the creation of pollution.

The Quran has revealed that "Man is self destroyed". Modern wars and the explosions of atom bombs and other bombs emitting harmful radiation and smoke and the use of chemical weapons also cause great pollution. In short, it is a global affair & joint responsibility of all nations who call themselves civilized to control air, land, water & sea pollution on earth for better living on earth as earth is the common abode of mankind with specific environment for life to exist. The problem is not of a single country but of the whole environment and mankind living on earth. It is only the human beings on earth & no other living creatures' that cause pollution on earth. Let mankind set environment right for human beings to exist. Within the next 30 to 40 year, wild honey would disappear due to the use of insecticides, ruthless forest cutting & rapidly increasing population & increasing pollution. Other species would also extinct rapidly.

One still recollects the excellent & natural flavor, sweetness & taste of crops, fruit and vegetables and the fragrance of flowers before 1950. If that is recollected and compared with the present time, flavor, sweetness, taste & fragrance of fruit, flowers, vegetables and crops, it would be found by senior citizen that the environmental pollution of air, land & water have destroyed most of that quality. It means pollution has destroyed the quality of these life sustaining eatables what nature has gifted to human beings. Many fruit species are extinct. Moreover, the very human behavior is undergoing great physiological change due to polluted environment and the sign of this change appear in the form of depression, irritability, anxiety, fatigue and suicide.

In order to reduce and control rapid deterioration of environment due to the pollution of air, land, water, food, and sea, the following main preventive and improvement measures are suggested.

• Install toxic wastewater treatment plants where required. The treated effluent should be separately disposed off through proper drainage network. Hospitals should be provided with incinerators.

• Laws should be framed and enforced to include toxic wastewater treatment plants as an in-built part of industry. Similarly, all cities must have wastewater treatment plants. The resulting effluent should be carried separately in surface drains for safe disposal. 

• Revive full waterways of all the classified natural drains and streams that are choked up and encroached to the original shape and size to carry the waste flow after its treatment.

• Provide surface & sub-surface tile drainage in the Indus basin to carry the injurious saline drainage effluent to sea to keep land healthy for irrigated agriculture. SCARP & NDP costing Rs. 750 billion have failed due to the adoption of wrong project planning concepts of tube wells. This needs inquiry for its repeated failures & for making the situation extremely dangerous as no drainage system exits in the Indus basin to evacuate injurious effluent and other wastewater flow. This has dangerously increased pollution. Tube wells can not evacuate saline and injurious effluent out of the area to maintain salt and water balance and control sub­soil water table. It only circulates groundwater salinity.

• Carryout integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) to save about 50 maf of canal seepage water and about 25 maf of flood flows that is about 75 maf of water out of 142 maf of the surface water. Long life storage reservoirs like the 35 maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River must be built. Watershed management be carried out to check silt and efficient network of drainage system be provided. These are the major components of water management. Water is the vehicle to carry away pollution for safe disposal & is the source of life. Water grows trees to fight pollution and the trees serve as lungs of cities.

• Carry out watershed management measures to avoid rapid silting of reservoirs by the silty Indus River water. The origin & the source of silt in the Indus River water is from the highly erodible soil of Skardu Valley. This is why reservoirs are silted up in short period of time. The dire need is to build the unique, multipurpose Katzarah Dam that would hold back silt in Skardu valley by acting as watershed management infrastructure, prolong life of down stream reservoirs, control super flood due to global warming, generate 15,000 MW of environment friendly hydropower and create 35 maf storage. Katzarah Dam would regulate the river flow, function as carry over reservoir, irrigate millions of acres of land in the four provinces and would have a life span of more than 1000 years. Pakistan is most unfortunate and is bound to become desert if Katzarah Dam and the integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) are not taken in hand before the devastation caused by the incoming global warming.

• Revolutionary administrative changes at the policy & decision-making level are needed to actively handle environment and implement water and drainage projects as part of ICWM by professional experts at all levels. This responsibility is beyond the jurisdiction of non-professional administrators, as this is not their job. Similarly, the politicians should not unnecessary interference by demanding the execution of wrong or less beneficial projects on political grounds, thereby overriding professional merits.

• There is dire need for the separate disposal of toxic drainage effluent after treatment. This is necessary so that the surface & sub-surface groundwater all over the country is kept safe for drinking purpose & for irrigation uses for growing healthy vegetables & food crops. The country's fresh water resources should be protected from poisoning.

• Pakistan must grow artificial forests & tress all over the country including urban forestry in cities & use drip irrigation to cover an area between 20 to 30 million acres of land to fight air pollution. This would only be possible if the 35 maf multipurpose Katzarah Dam is build immediately through Chinese or Russian engineers

• Water and its use, is the source to fight pollution. At present about 60% surface water is wasted in seepage from the 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible,  supplied based canal irrigation system besides wastage of floodwater. This needs revolutionary modernization by providing the demand based canal irrigation system and building 35 maf storage dam at Katzarah to save floodwater wastage. The water saved would be used for developing irrigated agriculture and raise forests. Therefore, the need is for long life storage reservoir as available at Katzarah releasing silt free water. Besides this, surface and, sub-surface drainage system is direly needed to evacuate injurious effluent. Moreover, water must be efficiently used. All these measures form the integral part of ICWM.

• Approach UN, the World Bank and the Asian development bank to help fight air, land, water, food and sea pollution at global level to improve earth's environment and repair damages to the ozone layer to minimize the adverse effects of global warming. Pakistan may seek assistance from the UN and others to build Katzarah Dam and help implement ICWM as preventing measure against global warming and pollution. This is because Pakistan would be the worst hit country in the whole world by global warming due to its location on earth. Pollution would add more miseries.

If the Government of Pakistan ignores and fail to reduce the adverse effects of global warming and pollution, then the incoming famine by the year about 2035 would bring the dooms day. Pakistan would become desert due to pollution. It would face famine and would become diseased hit country. The motto for future election by the politicians should therefore be how to protect Pakistan from these horrible incoming calamities?

India held in storage, the Rabi supplies to Pakistan from Chenab River and Jehlum river in occupied Kashmir, turning these rivers seasonal in winter. This is violation of the Indus Waters Treaty.

WATER CRISIS CAN TRIGGER NUCLEAR WAR IN SOUTH ASIA

Water used by India as weapon of starvation

India has built hundreds of dams on six rivers and on their tributaries in occupied Kashmir to use water as a weapon of starvation. The primary objective of dams building in occupied Kashmir is to stop water flow during winter to Pakistan for its Rabi crop. India has turned Chenab River and Jehlum River almost as seasonal rivers or non-perennial in winter. All this is done in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. The spirit of the Treaty is NOT to stop winter supplies to Pakistan. The second objective is to use water and hydropower resources of occupied Kashmir in Indian territory. 

 The wanton construction of dams by India on Pakistani rivers and its subsequent impact on Pakistan's agri-based economy is shear violation of the Treaty. The violations of the Treaty by India is the turning of the water crisis into a war, which can escalate into a nuclear exchange, if both the nuclear powers fail to find out amicable solution. The water dispute between both the countries must be settled according to the UN resolution.

The growing scarcity of water in adverse proportion with fast increasing population in the world has emerged as the biggest challenge for the modern nation-states. Contrary to the states, which have geographical limitations, water is an ambient resource that neither knows nor respects human boundaries. The most cordial and cooperative neighboring nations have even found it difficult to achieve mutually acceptable arrangements to govern their trans-boundary surface waters. The water conflicts become intense when nations are located in arid regions or in the areas where under ground water are mainly brackish.

In this case, the water crisis is created by the wrong and unjust partition of India by handing the Kashmir, the Muslim majority area, the origin of six rivers, to India by the British Government. The UN has passed a resolution for referundom confirms that injustice has been done while portioning India. Even the Head works of Pakistani canals went to India.

South Asia is a region where growing scarcity of water resources, increasing population accompanied by poor water management has resulted in an increasing demand for water resources. The rising shortage of water has led to the desire for control of water assets, which in turn has become a ground for breeding conflicts. There are three trans-boundary river basins in South Asia, which include the Ganges-Brahmaputra- Meghna (GBM) river basin (largest in South Asia, which spans Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal), the Indus river basin (consists of Afghanistan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan) and the Helmand River Basin which covers Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of Iran.

The two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and India share the waters of Indus basin that flows in the Himalayan mountain passes through the state of Jammu and Kashmir and the arid lands of Punjab and Sindh, empties into the Arabian Sea. The quest for maximum utilization of existing water resources slid both the countries into a conflict immediately after the partition. The geography of partition was such that the source-rivers of the Indus basin were in India and held Kashmir. Pakistan felt its livelihood threatened by the prospect of Indian control over the tributaries that fed water into the Pakistani portion of the basin. The seed of conflict was sown intentionally by wrong partition of India by the British Government. This was inhuman and cruel as the life of 1.5 billion people was exposed to nuclear war besides damaging the earth environment. The only solution to avoid nuclear war is to implement UN resolution on Kashmir. Britain is guilty for all this wrong and unjust partion. 

During the first year of partition, the waters of the Indus were apportioned by the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 4, 1948. However, neither side was willing to compromise its respective position. India stood for a new system of water allocations while Pakistan felt that its share of waters should be based on pre-partition distribution as half of West Punjab was under threat of desertification. In the pre-partition period, the area of Pakistani Punjab had an uninterrupted access to the waters of all the six rivers. After many years of negotiations, both the countries agreed on a formula of water sharing in 1960 with the patronage of World Bank, which is called Indus Waters Treaty.

Though, the Indus Waters Treaty has sustained three major wars and various crisis situations between both the countries but the violation of the treaty through exploitation of its provisions by India have exacerbated the water crisis in Pakistan. India has violated the Indus Waters treaty provisions by putting the water inflow below 55000 cusec in Chenab River at Maralla Head works. On the other hand, Pakistan relies on the Indus River and its tributaries for almost half of its irrigation supplies, and to generate up to half of its electricity. India is constructing three major hydro projects on Indus River namely Nimoo Bazgo power project, Dumkhar project and Chutak project which have also storage capacity (violation of the IWT). These projects, will hold dead and live storage and will reduce the river water supply to the agriculture lands in Khyber Pakhtunkha and Sindh provinces. About half of Pakistan water requirements come from Chenab River and Jehlum River. India would almost stop winter supplies from these two rivers. This will subject Pakistan to sever water crisis and deprived it of Rabi crops.

Almost 80% of Pakistan's agriculture is dependent on irrigation. Many of Pakistan's industries are agro-based such as the textiles industry. Moreover, 70% of Pakistan's food needs are fulfilled domestically. Thus, an interruption of water supply would cause severe domestic problems ranging from political, social to economic in Pakistan. Several rounds of talks have commenced between both the countries on the water issue between the Indus Water Commissioners and Foreign Secretaries of both the countries. However, India is continuing its hydropower projects in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan is currently facing food insecurity and the situation will be worsened in the near future if the water availability to the agriculture sector is reduced. The water shortage will destroy the natural habitat and climate of river deltas inside Pakistan besides lowering the underground water table.

The water crisis will not only affect the economy but it has social and political implications for the Pakistani society. Since the issue of water shortage has surfaced with its severity, the mistrust among the federative units has increased and water distribution among the provinces according to their demands is becoming a hectic affair for the incumbent government with each passing year. The farmers associations are already continuing their protests in different parts of the Punjab and Sindh provinces against the non-availability of sufficient water for their crops. It is my assertion if the crisis further escalated the protests could shape an agitation and major law and order challenge for the government.

The climate change and global warming have also affected the catchments areas or river sources situated in the Himalayan region, causing 40 to 50% less water availability in the rivers. India's construction of dams will further reduce the flow of rivers towards Pakistan approximately to 50%. Occupied Kashmir is the major source of river waters flowing to the lower riparian (Pakistan) areas. That is why the importance of Kashmir for Pakistan is not only restricted to the ideological affiliation with the people of the territory but it is also because of rivers flowing from the valley are the lifeline of it's economy. Both the nuclear powers have already fought two major wars and a limited war in Kargil over the unresolved dispute of Kashmir. The possession of nuclear capability by both the countries has endangered the peace of the region as any future conflict can trigger all out war or perhaps a nuclear war. The only remedy to the 64 years old dispute is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan. It is Muslim majority area. India has forcibly captured Hyderabad Daccan, Junagarh and Manawadar states. This proves India is aggressive. This attitude can lead to war.

The water crisis can be the potential cause for any future conflict between both the countries.

There may be armed conflict with India if peaceful negotiations fail to yield results.

 One should realize the gravity of the water crisis and its implications for the regional peace. There is need to assess the existing water treaty and its loopholes besides its implications for Pakistan's agrarian economy. We should highlight the water crisis as a major source of conflict in future, threatening the survival of millions of people in the region in case of nuclear exchange.

Diversion of water by India, Climate change and cessation of IWT due to silting of reservoirs affected Water Accord

Need for changes in Water Accord to match water availability due to above reasons

Water Accord 1991 needs adjustment and changes to match present day water availability that is affected by diversion of water of the six rivers by India, cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty due to silting of Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs by 6.6 maf, and climate change.

Water Accord 1991, had distributed 117.35 maf of water in para 2 against the availability of 105 maf diverted in to the network of Canal Irrigation System. Water Accord distributed (117.35-105)=12.35 maf of water in advance of building storage. Para 4 requires to create 12.35 maf storage to meet para 2 requirements. The Government of Pakistan has not implemented paras 2, 4, 6 and para 14(e) of the Water Accord for the past 19 years of its promulgation This is the reason, Water Accord remained under inter-provincial dispute.

It also appears, Water Accord para 2 has distributed 117.35 maf of water randomly, not taking in to account the irrigated area and the crops grown in a province. Water Accord para 4 has also fixed a specific ratio for the distribution of floodwater between the provinces without any basis. This aspect of Water Accord may be re-examined, as water has to be distributed on specific basis besides keeping in view future development of provinces. Like the Kachhi plain of Baluchistan, the districts of Dera Ismail Khan, Bannu and Kohat and similar areas in Punjab and Sindh.

Moreover, implementation of para 14(e) is very vital as it requires to avoid all wastage in the wasteful canal system. This needs Integrated Comprehensive Water Management (ICWM) as the existing Canal Irrigation system has become 150 years old, highly wasteful, incompatible, and obsolete. It wastes 50% of water that enters it.

It is unfortunate that the Government did not implement paras 2, 4, 6, and 14(e) of the Water Accord since the creation of IRSA, 19 years ago. Surprisingly no province asked for its implementation though they fight for more water. IRSA too remained inactive. In 1994, when I was Chairman IRSA, about 16 years ago, I requested the Ministry of Water and Power to implement Water Accord paras 2, 4, 6, and 14(e). I wrote a detailed paper on each para for its implementation.    

Water Accord para 14(b) creates confusion to distribute shortages and surpluses. It also clashes with para 4 water ratio distribution and non-availability of 117.35 maf of water in para 2. In view of paras 2, and 4, there seems to be  no need for para 14(b) so as to remove confusion and dispute between the provinces. The water distribution ratio in para 4 should be used in distributing shortages and surpluses.

For practicing irrigated agriculture, perennial source of water is required. This requires dams to regulate the erratic flows of rivers. There are no dam sites on our rivers in our territory, like on the Kabul River, the Chenab River and the Jehlum River. We have only the Indus where there are many dam sites. The Indus River is highly erratic as its flow varies between 9000 cusecs to 1,200,000. Therefore, dams are necessary. Swat River has also one good dam site for storage of water. Water Accord provides to build dams in its paras 2, 4, 6, and 14(e) so as to supply regulated water to crops as and when required in proper dozes.

The appointment of Supreme Court Judge as Chairman IRSA, and the Members IRSA resigning in protest one after the other asking for more water is not the solution to solve the problem of the shortage of water. Dams building is the answer.

Global warming and Climate change

Without the construction of dams, it is impossible to implement Water Accord. Without dams, about 22% of Pakistan is destroyed by the 2010 super flood, caused due to Global warming and Climate change. The river water supply is not regulated as there are no dams on the Indus and Swat Rivers. Climate change will cause havoc when dams are not built. There will be no hydropower when dams are not built. The 2010 flood can hit again if dams are not built. Dams are needed to fight Global warming. Pakistan seems to be least concerned in building  dams. WAPDA gyrates only abut building Kalabagh Dam. India has built dozens of dams in disputed territory the occupied Kashmir, where as Pakistan failed to build dams even for its survival. Curse on those who are sleeping when Pakistan is going dry.

India turned Chenab and Jehlum Rivers dry by diverting waters. These rivers are made seasonal or non-perennial for Pakistan during winter. We will not be able to grow Rabi and early Kharif. This will affect Water Accord as para 2 water will not be available.

The Global Warming and Climate change, cessation of the Indus Water Treaty losing 6.6 maf of storage water, and the absence of dams, require to up date the Water Accord as it will no longer hold good.

Water Accord para 13 states that IRSA is created to implement Water Accord but it is not stated how to implement it when IRSA is powerless having no resources to be able to build dams. This para is incomplete and cofusing. IRSA cannot build 6.6 maf of the lost storage water in Tarbela and Mangla. Chairman WAPDA is the ex-officio Member IRSA but never attended the office of IRSA for consultation. WAPDA office must be shifted to Islamabad so that it remains in close touch with IRSA in implementing Water Accord. In the light of IRSA Act, WAPDA is a component part of IRSA as its Chairman is Member IRSA. It should work in close coordination with IRSA to implement para 13 of the Water Accord.

After the cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty due to the loss of 6.6 maf of storage water, and due to diversion of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers water stopping winter flows to Pakistan for Rabi and Khaif crops, and for not Replenishing the lost storage of 6.6 maf by building dams, the Water Accord will become non-functional. This will create sever problems. There arises the need to revise the Water Accord to adjust to the prevailing situation so that there are no disputes. The remedy to all water issues is Water Management.

Silting caused cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty besides its gross violations by India

The Indus Waters Treaty development reveals the eruption of grave issue leading to the cessation of the Indus Waters Treaty by silting. The IWT ceased to function as Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have lost 6.6 maf of Replacement storage due to silting. The lost storage is to be Replenished perennially by new storage to revive the Treaty to supply water through Link Canals to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is diverted by India due to wrong partition by the British. We claim that the wrong and unjust partition by the British be redone so that there is no water dispute after handing over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan to avoid nuclear war on water. Peace is better than war, life is better than death. Agreement on Kashmir, the source of water, on which Pakistan life and death depends is vital, otherwise nuclear war is hanging as the sword of Democles. 

Over and above the issue of silting, the blatant violations of the Treaty by India by building dozens of low and very high dams on all the six rivers and their tributaries exceeded the allowable storage limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. So far, these innumerable dams have approximately created 10 maf of dead storage and about 25 to 30 maf of live storage, depriving Pakistan of its water rights for Rabi and Kharif crops by violating the Treaty figure. More high dams are under construction. India is not releasing actual data of dead and live storage to Pakistan for the numerous dams India is building.

It is surprising to read John Kerry report while I have just written this paper on the IWT. John Kerry has cautioned water war in South Asia while sending report to US Senate in the context of IWT. I revised my paper on IWT giving John Kerry reference.

John Kerry report states that “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the region”

The consequence of violating IWT by India is that Chenab and Jehlum Rivers will turn seasonal, as they will not release winter supplies to Pakistan at crucial moment for Rabi and early Kharif crops. Pakistan would therefore NOT be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This will create famine conditions and food problem due to shortage of water at times when water is most needed.

Silting of reservoirs in Pakistan and violation of the Treaty by damming complete winter flow of all rivers in occupied Kashmir by India made the Treaty un-operative.

The rapid silting of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs built under the Indus Waters Treaty as Replacement storage have lost about 6.6 maf of the Replacement storage due to silting. This resulted in the cessation of the Treaty because Pakistan lost the very source of water for which the Indus water works comprising two dams and a net work of barrages and link canals were built to transfer water from one river to the other to irrigate lands in Southern Punjab. The perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers went to India under the Treaty along with the  canal Head works because of wrong and unjust partition of India by the British. With the silting of Tarbela and Mangla, the Indus Basin Works became un-operative and redundant. The un-operative Treaty can only be revived if new Replenishment storage is created on perennial basis as Pakistan gave perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. If India does not agree to bear the cost of new replacement storage dams then original supplies from the Three Eastern Rivers be restored to Pakistan, as was available before partition on 15 August 1947. Treaty or no Treaty the water rights of Southern Punjab cannot be usurped.

The objective in the Preamble of the Indus Waters Treaty automatically dies when Replacement storage is lost and is not Replenished perennially as Pakistan surrendered perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India. The issue arises due to the wrong partition of India by the British who gave the source of waters to India, of lands that irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The British has sown the seed for conflict.

India has skillfully misused the Treaty by building dozens of dams to control the waters of the six rivers for use against Pakistan as a weapon of starvation and mass destruction. India is bent upon turning the world’s largest canal irrigation system in the Indus Basin into desert. India is using dams as water weapon to destroy Pakistan under the cover of Indus Waters Treaty by misusing it cleverly. Such situation as created can trigger nuclear water war.

Being Distinction Holder in Dams and Reservoir Engineering, I caught the Indian trick and therefore I disclose how India is using Dams and Reservoirs to deprive Pakistan of the flow of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers winter flows, turning them as seasonal rivers (Non-perennial) rivers for Pakistan. As such, Pakistan will not be able to grow Rabi crop and early Kharif crop.

John Kerry report cautions against war in South Asia

John Kerry, Chairman of the US senate Foreign Relations Committee, while releasing the report said “The Indus Waters Treaty may fail to avert water wars between India and Pakistan. He acknowledged that dams India is building in occupied Kashmir will limit supply of waters to Pakistan at crucial moments”. John Kerry said “The cumulative effect of these projects could give India the ability to store enough water to limit the supply to Pakistan at crucial moments in the growing season”.

But “experts question long term effectiveness in light of chronic tension between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region, where a significant portion of the Indus River’s head waters originate”  The report further says “The IWT has recently been criticized for its “inflexibility” to adjust to changes in water levels. The experts are now questioning whether the IWT can adapt to these changes.” The report says “India has 33 projects at various stages of completion on the rivers that affect the Region” DAWN (23.2.2011).    

Building series of Dams on six rivers used as weapon of starvation besides violating the Treaty

India has used gross available head of all the six rivers (head to tail) by series of dams using optimum slope potential with the intention to generate full hydropower and create large storage to hold as much water as possible. This is in violation of the Treaty as India far acceded the fixed limit of storing 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers. The reason for building dozens of dams is to harass Pakistan by destroying its irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin, that is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan. India has stopped winter flow to Pakistan specially of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers so that it does not grow Rabi crop and early Kharif. This will create famine conditions, and that is the basic source of terrorism besides fear of war.

 The second Indian objective is to transfer, full water and power resources, of occupied Kashmir to India. The natural resources of Kashmir are exploited by India.

Pakistan should have prevented India from building dozens of dams on the six rivers. It is estimated so far India has created about 10 maf of Dead Storage and 25 to 30 maf of Live Storage in violation of the Treaty and exceeding the limit of 4.19 maf to 35 to 40 maf (including 10 maf dead storage). This will further increase. The sleeping Pakistan could not prevent India from this skillful aggression in violating the Treaty.  It is very obvious that India grabbed Pakistan’s waters under the cover of Treaty. The Treaty has clearly restricted India not to exceed storage more than 4.19 maf of water on the six rivers (Three Western and Three Eastern). while producing hydropower. This condition in the Treaty restricts numbers of dams as well height of dam to keep aggregate storage not more than 4.19 maf on the six rivers.   

             

India built very high dams while Pakistan was asleep not realizing that India acceded the storage limit of 4.19 maf. More over, the Treaty does not indicate the diversion of water, from the catchment area of one river to the other by means of tunnels to produce hydropower and store water in another catchment area linking rivers. The building of innumerable dams create innumerable dead storage and live storage on the six rivers in occupid Kashmir violating the limit of 4.19 maf fixed in the Treaty. India will continue building dams to store water and create dead and live storage till it reduces water supplies of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to 0 maf at crucial moment.

The construction of very high dam like the Barsar Dam 829 feet high, 475 feet Baglihar       Dam, and other dams are against the spirit of the Treaty as they create large dead and live storage that exceed the permissible limit. The spirit of the Treaty is to build low dam on run-of-the-river to produce hydropower and not to create illegal storage on the main stem of the river. The Treaty does not allow to stop winter flows of Chenab and Jehlum Rivers by building innumerable dams incessantly. The number of dams are restricted by fixing storage limit not to store more than 2.85 maf on the Three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf on the Three Eastern Rivers. The aggregate gross storage of 4.19 maf includes both Dead and Live storage.

Pakistan inert attitude to the implementation of Indus Waters Treaty

It is surprising and shocking that no one in Pakistan could understand Indian ingenuity and trickery of incessant building of dams under the cover of Treaty. This is with the intention not to allow a drop of water from Chenab and Jehlum Rivers to Pakistan so that famine like conditions are created for sowing Rabi crop and early Kharif crop. This situation will create food shortage in Pakistan. The Indus Basin irrigation system is the food basket of Pakistan, FATA, and Afghanistan.

 However, FATA, Afghanistan and to some extent Pakistan are the strong hold of terrorists, suicide bombers and kidnappers, These terrorists will go in search of food to the adjoining countries. Food will not be easily available, as such, they will continue terrorist activities, kidnapping and suicide bombing. The people will remain jobless, hungry, no income, and  uneducated. These circumstances will make them terrorists and suicide bombers. These terrorists defeated Russia in 10 years long war, and destroyed Russia economically. America has committed the same blunder, and is destroying its economy fighting a senseless war with no hope to win. Pakistan is also destroyed simply because, it is fighting others war.

 The active war is fought by Pakistan, who suffered tremendously. War is a component of non-development. There is no development in Pakistan, no jobs, no earning, no education and extreme ignorance. To avoid war and terrorism, carry out development in irrigated agriculture by building dams to generate hydropower, and store water for agricultural development to produce food, create jobs, earn money, get education and be civilized. An educated man on job will never become a terrorist. As such Kashmir and water issues must be settled by the UN, USA, and UK as there is fear of nuclear war in South Asia as predicted by world renown politicians including US Senator John Kerry. UK made a mistake by wrong partition of India. This needs to be set right for the sake of peace in the world and justice and to avoid damaging Earth’s environment by nuclear radiation. This will be a horrible nuclear war that will agitate  and quicken Global warming and climate change.

Indian cleverness and Pakistan stupidity in dealing IWT

India being clever and devoted availed the services of its highly experienced experts in hydraulics and water resources development specializing in Dams and Reservoir Engineering to deal IWT. Similarly, India has availed the services of highly experienced legal experts and policy makers to handle the IWT. Moreover, the Government of India is highly concerned and alive to the implementation of IWT in a way to achieve its objectives of starving Pakistan to death by stopping the supply of water at crucial moment.

 The purpose behind the implementation of the Treaty is to avail full water and hydropower potential of occupied Kashmir and its six rivers by holding as much water as possible. This is with the intention to destroy the irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin under the guise of IWT. India harnessed optimum hydropower and created large storage to hold winter flows of the Indus, Chenab and Jehlum Rivers in occupied Kashmir. This is with the intention to use water as a weapon of starvation against Pakistan. India managed that Pakistan goes into deep slumber, not realizing that India silently built dozens of dams in about 40 to 50 years. Pakistan has no data of what India is building. Pakistan is unaware how much storage water India created.

Pakistan is stupid, as it remained unaware of India building dozens of dams in utter violation of the Treaty. Moreover, Pakistan never realized that the Treaty has ceased with the silting of Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs and that new storage as Replacement storage is needed so that the Treaty stays alive perennially as Pakistan handed over perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India.

Over and above, the stupidity, Pakistan committed blunder by appointing Kamal Majeed as advisor to the President on water though Kamal Majidulla is non-professional. He is illiterate to the technical issues arising out of IWT. He and his team are unable to handle the Treaty in the context of no knowledge of hydraulics and of Dams and Reservoir Engineering. Another surprising fact is that Majidulla in turn appointed two highly controversial legal experts who could never win the case. They were appointed for their own benefits and not in the interest of the case. This is treachery with the nation. One doubts they are sold to India or they are highly incapable and inert.

This is because, Majidulla overlooked URI-II hydropower project being built by India as an essential part of Kishanganga  project. India managed to complete the URI-II project without bringing it to the notice of Pakistan Commissioner Indus Water (PCIW). Pakistan could watch these activities through the satellite and through the agencies. Pakistan negligence will help India win the controversial Kishanganga in the Arbitration court. URI-I and URI-II will produce 240 MW of power with a concrete dam of 171 feet high. Majidulla and his experts were sleeping. URI-II will pick up the tail water to make use of gross head of about 130 M as available in the course between URI-I tail race outlet.

Pakistani experts inability to watch and interpret IWT

The essence of the Indus Waters Treaty is that Pakistan has surrendered the perennial water of the Three Eastern Rivers to India that perennially irrigated Southern Punjab of Pakistan and in return Pakistan got two Replacement storage dams, one on the Indus and the other on Jehlum River with net work of Link Canals. The Indus Basin works are meant to transfer perennial water from the Replacement storage dams to irrigate lands in the Southern Punjab of Pakistan. The Replacement storage created at Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs have been silted up by about 6.6 maf. Pakistan has lost Replacement storage. The effect of this loss of water on the Treaty is that it became un-operative. Southern Punjab has lost the source of water in a wrong and unjust partition.

 The consequence of the loss of Replacement storage is that Link Canals are not operative to transfer water to Southern Punjab whose perennial water is surrendered to India will become dry. This will create grave situation. Therefore, the loss of 6.6 maf water requires Replenishment by creating new storage perennially otherwise the Treaty ceases to function, when storage is lost and the Replacement Works become redundant. The Treaty can only be revived when equivalent perennial storage on perennial basis is arranged by India. For this, the Treaty needs modification and flexibility. Alternately, water from the Three Eastern Rivers shall have to be released by India as was available on August 1947.

 Besides the above violations , all other violations of the Treaty are to be set right by India. The Treaty requires to create new Replacement storage as Tarbela and Mangla has lost 6.6 maf of water due to silting. If this is not done, there will be no water for Rabi crop and early Kharif. Pakistan as well as FATA and Afghanistan will be subjected to hunger. This will give rise to terrorism and India will be responsible for that. The whole world will suffer due to spread of terrorism as hunger, no development, no jobs, no education in Pakistan, FATA and Afghanistan  will be forced to become terrorist.

The responsibility will lie on India due to stopping Chenab and Jehlum Rivers water during winter for growing Rabi and Kharif crops by building dams and holding water in violation of the IWT and for the continued illegal occupation of occupied Kashmir. The UN will be responsible for not implementing its pending resolution for the last 62 years. I fear water aggression against Pakistan, may in the future, lead to war perhaps nuclear war. The problem in the sub-continent is created by the British because of unjust and wrong partition. This is a great inhuman act as the life of 1.4 billion people is exposed to nuclear war. The permanent and just solution to the water issue is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan and take over Hyderabad, Junagarh and Manawadar states so that nuclear war is avoided. As the UN did not bother to implement its 62 years old resolution indicate lawlessness at international level.

It is frustrating to know that there are no dam sites on Kabul River, Chenab River and Jehlum River in Pakistani territory to store floodwater. Pakistan has dam sites only on the Indus River and Swat River. India is playing even with the water of the Indus River.

The global warming and climate change will reduce rivers flow by about 40% by the year 2050. What ever water is available, about 50% of that is lost due to seepage in the 150 years old, incompatible and obsolete supply-based Canal Irrigation System. Moreover, climate change will also affect water availability. Therefore, there is urgent need to create flexibility in IWT by its modification. There is need to carryout modernization of the Canal irrigation system to demand-based system to save huge wastage of water. This needs Integrated Comprehensive Water Management (ICWM). The building of unique 35-maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River are very vital for the survival of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan. These two dams must be built on war footing.

I foresee Pakistan will be faced with another serious problem by the year 2080 when Basha Dam, Tarbela Dam, and Mangla Dam will all silt up. The Canal Irrigation System will then be on run-of-the-river. This means no water for Rabi and early Kharif crops. The situation will create famine conditions that will aggravate terrorism, as there will be no food. The remedy to control silting at its source is to build Katzarah dam, as it will submerge the world’s highly erodible soil in the Skardu valley. This will increase the life span of all the reservoirs downstream of Katzarah Dam.

I also fear super flood of 2010 intensity, may hit Pakistan any time. Munda Dam with live storage of 0.67 maf, planned as power dam by WAPDA is now wrongly claimed as flood control dam. The flood control dam is Guroh Dop Dam about 8.0 miles upstream of Munda Dam. The Ministry should not allow WAPDA to commit another blunder to the series of blunders it already committed of which the Government is unaware as in case of IWT. There is dire need to shift WAPDA Head quarter to Islamabad to be in close contact with the Planning Commission, Ministry of Water and Power and Agriculture, IRSA and other relevant organizations.