How to prevent similar super flood catastrophe in future

CLICK IMAGE TO ENLARGE

There is dire need to tame cataclysmic floods to normality by building dams with excellent capacity-inflow ratio on the Indus, on Swat, and on Panjkora Rivers. About 22% of Pakistan and 40 million of its people are ruined by the super flood and about another 5% area is hit by sever rainfall. This is the worst natural disaster on earth that human beings suffered due to climate change and global warming.

 More floods of similar intensity are predicted. It is reported that about 55 maf floodwater has passed downstream Kotri barrage to sea as waste flows during 2010. It is nine times the storage of Basha Dam. Indus and Panjkora are the only rivers where mega flood control multipurpose dams can be built, There are no dam sites on Kabul River, Chinab River and Jehlum River. We must build multipurpose flood control dams without loss of time on emergency basis.

 Munda, Akhori and Kalabagh Dams are not flood control as wrongly assumed by the Ministry of Water and Power. Akhori and Kalabagh are infeasible as declared by Consultants. The real flood control dams are the 35 maf Katzarah Dam and the 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam as discovered by me in 1962.

Pakistan is perhaps the only country in the world that has free flow in its furious and highly erratic rivers. This is because no flood control dams on its rivers were built since the creation of Pakistan in 1947. For this omission, concerned organizations are responsible. No attention and care is given to develop the natural resources specially land, water, power and agriculture to produce food for its 180 million rapidly growing people.  

WAPDA was created in 1958 to develop water and power resources. No mega dam is built by WAPDA since its inception to tame monstrous floods. We are therefore faced with crippling load shedding and water scarcity besides inter-provincial water disputes. Tarbela, Mangla, and link canals were built under compulsion of the Indus Waters Treaty as Replacement Dams in lieu of giving Ravi, Sutlege and Bias Rivers water to India under the Treaty. Foreign Consultants built the dams under the World Bank supervision. Tarbela Dam, Mangla Dam and Chashma barrage have already silted up and lost storage capacity by 6.6 maf. Even then, no dam is built to replenish the lost storage of 6.6 maf. What a lethargy shown by WAPDA and others.

There is great confusion and it is not clear who is responsible to foresee, investigate, plan and order to build mega dams? May be such flood comes with in the very near future. We must harness water and hydropower by building dams to meet the demand of growing population. Pakistan faces serious water issues. Please refer to my website “fatehuk.blogspot.com” for water issues faced by Pakistan. I have given solutions to the issues.  Some of the issues  are;

Why we could not foresee the crippling load shedding for the past about 20 years?

Why Pakistan is pushed to become a water scarce country? Why no mega dams are built to store floodwater that goes waste to sea?

Why the highly wasteful, inefficient, incompatible and obsolete Canal Irrigation System is not modernized to save 50% water lost due to seepage, and system wastage that enters the network of canal system? The lost water from canal system is between 45 to 50 maf that is equal to about 8 times the storage capacity of Basha Dam. Just think for a moment what a great loss goes unnoticed. We must therefore modernize our 150 years old and obsolete canal irrigation system.

There is dire need for Integrated Comprehensive Water Management. In Pakistan, water is both nowhere and everywhere. Canal water is squandered by abysmal water management. Absence of drainage system has spread salinity. Dams are rapidly silting.

Who is responsible not to foresee flood control dams to have protected Pakistan’s 22% area from the earth’s worst flood disaster? It was like flood of the Noah’s time.

Why Kalabagh Dam controversy and status quo was stretched to 36+10=46 years that prevented the construction of mega multipurpose flood control dams like Basha Dam and the unique Katzarah Dam, besides the Guroh Dop Dam? The feasibility of Basha Dam was established in 1981. Had these three dams were built in time, there would have been no flood losses as flood would have been normalized. Who is responsible for all this death and destruction?

Why the multipurpose, 35 maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River discovered by Engr Fateh Ulla Khan in 1962 and 1960 were not built that would have surely tamed the Indus River, Swat River, Panjkora River and Kabul River to normality. It would have surely avoided the loss of $ 43 billion as estimated by the Prime Minister.

Why WAPDA caused abnormal delay of 50 years in completing the Gomal Zam Dam at the new dam site (Khajuri Katch) discovered by me in 1959? The dam is not yet complete even after 50 years.

Why WAPDA’s mega drainage projects of SCARPs and NDP to remove and control salinity, sodicity and water logging failed, wasting Rs 750 billion between the period 1965 to 1975? It is apparent that WAPDA’s tube well concept to remove and control salinity was wrong. It is surprising that the established design of surface and sub-surface tile drainage was ignored.

At present about one million small tube wells are pumping the injurious saline drainage effluents as groundwater, injecting about 250 million tons of salts in to the soil, thereby destroying lands in Punjab invisibly and gradually. There is no drainage system to control salinity, sodicity and water logging. 

Why Kachi Canal’s first alignment from Mithan Kot was halfway abandoned?

Why All Pakistan Grand Canal originating from Chashma barrage suggested by me in 1962 to irrigate Kachi plain and serve as Chashma Right Bank Canal was not considered?

Why Kalabagh Dam Project Consultants were given a tailored TOR by WAPDA thrusting its own wrong hydraulic design to evacuate silt before investigations of the dam site? This is some thing unheard.

Why Consultant’s recommendation for “100 flood days unrestricted low-level sluicing hydraulic design to evacuate silt was not accepted by WAPDA? Why WAPDA stick to its tailored TOR for “50 flood days restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design”?

 The Consultants clearly said that restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design would not evacuate silt from upstream of the Attock gorge and that it will cause unacceptable backwater flow and flooding in Peshawar valley. Had Kalabagh dam been built, it would have destroyed Peshawar valley by backwater flow from the Indus and sever flood flow from Kabul River. The narrow Attock gorge, perform the function of storing water like a low dam to cause backwater flow and flooding in Peshawar valley.  

 The Consultants raised another few serious questions that foundation of the dam is weak and a hydraulic structure more than 160 feet should not be constructed even then under the tailored TOR WAPDA instructed the Consultants to keep the height of KBD as 260 feet. Because of wrong hydraulic design, and for the fact that the Indus will be on run-of-the-river for 50 flood days, the power generation from KBD will only be restricted to 1450 MW. WAPDA therefore directed the consultants under the tailored TOR to installed 2000 MW of Thermal power plant to support poor hydropower generation from the dam. It is something very ridiculous?

The Kalabagh Dam Project Report prepared by the Project Consultants was kept secret from the then Government of NWFP. WAPDA declared it as classified document when Khalid Aziz the then Additional Chief Secretary NWFP asked for the Project Report. WAPDA refused to give a copy of it but Khalid Aziz demanded it saying that nothing can be secret from the Government of NWFP when a dam is built whose storage reservoir falls in NWFP. After that, a copy of the report was supplied. 

It is concluded from the above facts that Pakistan is a self-destroyed country. It will stick to the execution of wrongly planned projects. The Kalabagh controversy and 40 years long status quo allowed the super flood to destroy Pakistan. Efficient and responsible WAPDA could have avoided all this by building a dam at Basha or at Katzarah and at Guroh Dop.

There is dire need to shift WAPDA’s head quarter from Lahore to Islamabad for increasing its efficiency and to be near the Federal Government for better administration and consultation. IRSA was also shifted from Lahore to Islamabad for frequent consultations.

 In view of all this, there is dire need for technically sound development. Otherwise, I foresee unimaginable disaster in future. All organizations have failed in their duty and responsibility in flood management. They have no feelings for the nation. There is no love for the country. There is no foresight to build multipurpose dams for storing floodwater that goes waste to sea. Stored floodwater is used for irrigation, and for the generation of hydropower.

If Basha Dam, Katzarah Dam and Guroh Dop Dam were built in sixties and seventies as suggested by me, it would have converted the fetal super floods in to normal floods. WAPDA showed so deep interest in Kalabagh Dam that it stopped building dams other than Kalabagh Dam.

We are responsible for the crippling load shedding that caused loss of billions of dollars and for the worst flood disaster on earth in Pakistan that also caused billions of dollars loss besides large scale death and devastation to a limit beyond recovery.

I request the Government in public interest to investigate whose negligence caused crippling load shedding and the earth’s greatest flood catastrophe since 1974 for not building dams and for not making pre-flood maintenance. These steps would have translated into less destruction. The Government is requested in public interest to set right the multiple and serious problems of land, water, hydropower, rapid silting of reservoirs, building multipurpose, and technically sound dams etc.

 I invite attention of the Government to see my website, (fatehuk.blogspot.com) to know the problems of land, salinity, drainage, water wastage, obsoleteness of canal irrigation system, shortage of water, inter-provincial water dispute, super floods, rapid silting of reservoirs, selection of multipurpose flood control dams like Katzarah, Guroh Dop, and All Pakistan Grand Canal, hydropower generation and their solutions.

It is apparent that Government bureaucracy and politicians all time remained inert that caused irreparable loss of property and death of about 2000 people besides displacement of about 20 million people for not managing its natural resources. The bureaucracy and technocrats failed to foresee to build multipurpose flood control dams. They see only after it happens. Afterwards, wrong and infeasible projects are initiated that create status quo like that of Kalabagh Dam and now like Munda Dam. In fact, the irreparable losses are the after effects of the status quo created for Kalabagh Dam. Because of long status quo, Katzarah and Guroh Dop Dams are not built by WAPDA.

I read in the news paper that Munda Dam is built on priority basis as flood control dam although Munda was planned as power dam on run-of-the-river with gross storage of 1.29 maf and live storage of 0.67 maf.

 The question is why multipurpose flood control Guroh Dam with a gross storage capacity of 8.5 maf is ignored? Guroh Dam is only a few miles upstream of Munda Dam. Guroh Dop Dam’s storage is more than the storage capacity of Kalabagh Dam and Basha Dam.

 Munda is a run-of-the-river dam meant for power generation with a live storage capacity of 0.67 maf cannot control super floods of 400,000 cusecs that flowed in Kabul River. Will it be possible for the authorities to stop power generation and arrange to keep 0.67 maf live storage capacity empty to receive super floods? The answer is no. This will be WAPDA’s  blunder to assume that Munda Dam will control flood of 400,000 cusecs in Kabul River or reduce its intensity. Ignoring the 8.5 maf multipurpose Guroh Dam a few miles upstream of Munda is yet another blunder.

Why not consider building Guroh Dop Dam for flood control. Read my article on Guroh Dop Dam in my website fatehuk.blogspot.com for details. Munda is a good dam site for power generation but not for flood control. I hope the authorities should reconsider their capricious decision on Munda Dam. Guroh Dop is the flood control Dam. Guroh Dop will control floods in Swat River that will reduce flood intensity in Kabul River.  

The Ministry of Water and Power proposed that Kalabagh Dam, Akhori Dam and Munda Dam are to be built as flood control dams. Facts on record are that Akhori Dam is rejected by Dr Pieter Lieftnick Head of the World Bank Team in 1968 due to its weak foundation and for many other reasons besides raising the height of Tarbela Dam by 15 feet to divert water that may not be possible.

 Kalabagh Dam is technically infeasible due to its wrong hydraulic design and weak foundations. Moreover, it is run-of-the-river dam for 50 flood days as instructed by WAPDA in its TOR, but the Consultants disagreed to this and suggested 100 flood days on run-of-the-river to evacuate silt deposition upstream of Attock gorge. This shows Kalabagh is not flood control dam.

 Munda was designed as power dam on run-of-the-river and not a flood control dam. The real flood control dams are Katzarah on the Indus and Guroh Dop on Panjkora River.  The vital flood control dams as discovered by me in 1960 and 1962 are either ignored, or WAPDA is ignorant of it. WAPDA ignored Nisar Memon Chairman Parliamentary Committee report and of AGN Qazi Technical Committee report recommending to build Katzarah Dam. I assisted both these Committees.

In addition to the flood control dams, there is dire need to revive the chocked natural drainage system. All encroachments and obstructions are to be removed from the waterways of these natural drains. The Canal and Drainage Act of 1887 requires these drains to be properly maintained. These drains are classified drains and interference in their flow and waterway is strictly prohibited. The normal floodwater is safely drained through these drains without causing flood damages. Presently all drains are blocked and the floodwater over flows on lands in sheet form causing sever damages to crops, villages and other infrastructures.

Moreover, it is direly essential to ban forest cutting by timber mafia. This causes flash floods and large scale devastation. During the current flood, Tarbela Reservoir was full of cut logs floating all over its surface brought by the floodwater. The three flood control measures are, the constructions of Katzarah and Guroh Dop Dams, the opening of natural drains blocked by encroachments, and the banning of forest cutting.

There is an idea to divert the super floods to Cholistan desert to avoid damages in populated areas. I disagree. This is because super flood would first damage the province of KP, then Punjab, then Baluchistan and then efforts would be made to divert it to Cholistan. I am of the opinion that it is not possible to divert furious flowing floods. Only the controlled flood flow, after building dams, may be diverted to Cholistan instead of wasting water downstream of Kotri to sea.

This would supplement groundwater and raise water table. The diversion of control floods to Cholistan would only be possible if flood control dams are built first, and then specific waterways with the required infrastructures are built in the form of link flood canals. The floodwater management for Cholistan needs investigations to establish its feasibility. This year 55 maf of floodwater is wasted to sea. A part of it could be diverted to Cholistan.

Fateh raised barrage as alternative to Kalabagh Dam

As Chairman IRSA in 1994, I proposed an excellent alternative to end Kalabagh Dam controversy. The proposal is to build a low-level dam-cum-barrage at a suitable place on the Indus about 2 to 3 Km upstream of the present Kalabagh Dam site. On the crest of the 100 feet low dam, a conventional barrage is to be built. The full supply level of the dam-cum-barrage may be fixed at less than elevation 825 feet. It will create a storage of 2 maf to 2.5 maf, and generate hydropower on run-of-the-river ranging from 2000 MW to 4500 MW.

 The full supply reservoir boundary will not cross the Attock gorge and will be lower by 100 feet than of Kalabagh Reservoir. Moreover, in a barrage, there will be free flow of floodwater with no obstruction that causes heading up like in a dam. The whole storage reservoir will be with in the Indus valley. This storage would repeatedly be filled and used. Its useful use would aggragate to about 6 maf, as the annual run-off at this point is 80 to 90 maf.

 The merit of this alternative is that it requires no land acquisition, no land compensation, and would involve no controversy. This multipurpose alternative is the cheapest and the quickest. It will serve as vital balancing reservoir. This multipurpose alternative can be used as flood peak breaker besides generating huge hydropower.

 This proposal is in agreement with the Kalabagh Dam Consultants findings and recommendations of providing “unrestricted 100 flood days, low-level sluicing hydraulic design”, like a barrage. The 100 feet dam will soon silt up. The Indus River upstream of the dam will readjust its bed slope by aggradation. The conventional barrage will be the only operating infrastructure. This concept can only work in a river valley and not in plains.