Brief on Water Security Strategy in Pakistan Critical Review of Water Vision 2015 and its feasibility Recommended Water Security Strategy

State of Water Security in Pakistan

State of water security in Pakistan is precarious. One of the causes is that India has dammed the Indus, Jehlum and Chinab River in occupied Kashmier to full potential, creating acute shortage of water and water insecurity during the Rabi.

Unfortunately, no dam can be built on Kabul River, Jehlum River and Chinab River as there are no dam sites within Pakistan. This creates another state of insecurity during the Rabi. Floodwater cannot be stored on these rivers.

Indus is the only river where a number of dams can be built, but unfortunately, WAPDA has created yet another state of insecurity by creating Kalabagh controversy, and 46 years (36+10) long status quo by not building another dam with the best capacity-inflow ratio, long lifespan and excellent service value.

WAPDA initiated Kalabagh Dam (KBD) and located it at a wrong site, at the end of the Indus valley where the sediment load is maximum from a catchment area of 110500 squire miles. At this site the Indus River brings on the average about 540 million tons of silt equivalent to 0.3 maf. This gives a lifespan of about 20 years for Kalabagh Dam.

Moreover, WAPDA foolishly gave tailored TOR to the Kalabagh Project Consultants to follow its hydraulic design in a fruitless efforts to evacuate silt. WAPDA instructed the Consultants to provide 50 flood days restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design, wrongly assuming that it will evacuate silt. The Consultants did not agree with WAPDA’s dictated design. The Consultants suggested 100 flood days unrestricted low-level sluicing hydraulic design to evacuate silt otherwise heavy sediment load will be deposited upstream of the Attock gorge that will create unacceptable backwater flow and flooding in Kabul River that will inundate Peshawar valley and destroy Nowshera town and other large areas.

The Consultants further warned that foundation of Kalabagh Dam is weak and a hydraulic structure more than 160 feet cannot be constructed.

Moreover, due to wrong hydraulic design, Kalabagh Dam will produce only 1450 MW of hydropower. WAPDA therefore instructed the Consultants to support low hydropower by installing 2000 MW of Thermal Power Plant.

Because of these serious flaws, the Kalabagh Dam project became politically controversial and technically infeasible. WAPDA bent upon to build KBD by hook or by Crook. Therefore, WAPDA created 46 years long status quo and did not built any other dam. This created the greatest insecurity of water in Pakistan. Not only that, the status quo destroyed 22% of fertile Pakistan by the worst flood on earth and caused $ 100 billion loss at least. It also created inter-provincial water dispute destroying national integration.

Critical Review of Water Vision 2015 and its feasibility

The Water Vision 2015 includes the construction of Kalabagh Dam, Akhori Dam, Munda Dam and Basha Dam. Kurram Tangi is a local dam with small storage capacity of 0.7 maf. Out of the four vision dams, Kalabagh and Akhori are in feasible. Kalabagh is politically controversial and technically infeasible. Akhori Dam is rejected by the World Bank Team.  Munda is a power Dam to produce 740 MW of hydropower. It is not a flood control dam. It has negligible live storage capacity of 0.67 maf. We must go for multipurpose dams with large storage capacities and long lifespan. These vision 2015 dams are briefly discussed below:-

Kalabagh Dam. Its infeasibility is already explained.

Munda Dam.  Munda is basically a single purpose power dam. It has nominal storage capacity. It therefore cannot provide any water security. It is only feasible as power dam. WAPDA has declared to build it and termed it a flood control dam that is totally wrong and misguiding.

Basha Dam.  Basha is a good dam site. Its feasibility was established in 1982 but unfortunately WAPDA did not built it because of the Kalabagh Dam  on the mind of WAPDA. It is WAPDA, that has played and is playing the role of creating great insecurity by not building long life dams with maximum storage capacities for water security like the unique, multipurpose 35 maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus and the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Punjkora River/Swat River that would also end crippling load shedding. Basha is multipurpose dam. It will help mitigate super flood, generate 4500 MW of hydropower and replace the 6.6 maf of storage lost due to rapid silting of Tarbela, Mangla  and the Chashma barrage. Basha is therefore only a Replacement dam. For Water Security more dams are direly needed. Basha Dam is already under the process of construction.

Sanjwal Akhori Dam.

Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team rejected Akhori Dam and superseded it by Gariala Dam. Refer to page 292, volume I of Dr Pieter Lieftnick report. The height of Akhori Dam was then 250 feet and a length of 15800 feet. Its live storage was 3.3 maf. Akhori is a single purpose irrigation dam. The report on page 269 states that “it became evident that an inordinate amount of earth moving would be involved and that serious foundation problem would be encountered at each site. Cutoff grouting would be required along the axis of Sanjwal Dam, the embankment of which is another 12.5 miles long and extensive treatment would also be required at Akhori.

In view of this and other considerations, the project was deemed less favourable than Gariala Dam. The report on page 266 states that “For any such undertaking, Tarbela would have to be built to elevation 1565 feet against its present height of 1550 feet in order to facilitate the transfer of water across the divide”. This means Tarbela Dam will have to be raised by 15 feet. This may not be possible besides other serious consequences. Akhori is an indirect storage dam. An unusual canal with a huge discharge of 80,000 cusecs would take off from the Siren Arm of Tarbela Reservoir across the country. This will cross Motorway, GT road, Railwayline and other internal roads. Each structure would be unique in its size and cost. The canal would hardly run for about 50 days in a year. It will also carry heavy silt. The canal will remain dry for more than 10 months a year. Moreover, the diversion 80,000 cusecs may reduce power generation at Tarbela and destroy environment and eco-system between Ghazi-Barotha to Attock gorge. The Indus River bed would become dry for most of the year by diverting (56500+80,000)= 135000 cusecs of water from the Indus.

In spite of weak foundation of Akhori Dam that is declared unsafe by the World Bank for a height of 250 feet, how it would be possible for WAPDA to build a 420 feet high dam on weak foundation to create a storage of 7.0 maf?. The earth involved is 3 times that of Tarbela. The length of the dam with high embankments will increase to about 25000 feet.

World Bank on Security of water in Pakistan

Mr John Hall Country Director World Bank has said a few years back “Pakistan is moving from being one of the most water stressed country in the world to a water scarce country. Building new dams are just one of asset of necessary activities to increase farm water”.

Recommended Water Security strategy for Pakistan and its implications towards national integration

There is dire need to adopt a water security strategy on war footing in view of the global warming, glacier melting and climate change. This is necessary to feed the rapidly growing population. We may frequently face freak whether condition, like super floods, droughts, high temperature, changes in whether pattern etc. All these changes bring destruction to agriculture and food production for the fast growing population. This year super flood teaches us a lesson to learn and to secure water at all cost. We must avoid another calamity of the same nature.

I therefore recommend the following water security strategy for Pakistan.

Build the unique 35 maf Katzarah Dam on the Indus that provides excellent water security

Build the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora/Swat River. This also provides water security.

 Both these dams are super flood control. These are the only dams that provide Water Security but WAPDA is unaware of both the multipurpose dams. WAPDA care less for Water Security as is clear from its vision 2015 programme that includes two infeasible dams and the third one is power dam. Only Basha Dam is a proper dam but that too is a Replacement Dam as we have already lost 6.6 maf storage water due to rapid silting of reservoirs. These dams would store floodwater going waste to sea, besides producing huge hydropower that will remove crippling load shedding.

The other most important measure for Water Security is to modernize the highly wasteful, most inefficient, incompatible, and obsolete, 150 years old canal irrigation system. Out of 105 maf of water diverted into the canal irrigation system about 50% is lost due to seepage and as system wastage due to the incompatible canal system. This means about 50 maf or 8 times the storage of Basha Dam or Kalabagh Dam is wasted. This is criminal. There will be no water scarcity if the canal system is not modernized by Integrated Comprehensive Water Management, and huge wastage is avoided as far as possible.

Change of WARABANDI and adoption of Sprinkler and Drip irrigation method to save water

Warabandi is unscientific and is a wasteful method of application of water to crop. There is need to adopt Sprinkler method and Drip method of irrigation to accrue great saving in water. These two methods would irrigate an increase area of about 60%. This will provide water security. These irrigation methods provides water to crops as and when required in proper dozes.   

Katzarah Dam on the Indus

Katzarah is a unique and multipurpose dam on the Indus. It has storage capacity of 35 maf, and power generation of 15000 MW. Katzarah is a super flood control dam. It can irrigate 5 million acres of barren land. Katzarah is an excellent water shed management dam. It will prevent silt flow in the Indus River water. Skardu valley has the most highly erodible soil in the world. By building Katzarah Dam, its reservoir would submerge Skardu valley and stop silt erosion. Katzarah Dam has a lifespan  of 1000 years. Katzarah Dam will increase the life of Basha Dam from 80 years to about 800 years. Katzarah is the cheapest dam per maf of storage water, per MW of hydropower generation, per year of life span and per year of service value. Katzarah is a dam that will create national integrity as it will end inter-provincial water dispute by implementing paras 2, 4, 6 and 14(e) of the Water Accord. Katzarah is a Replacement Dam, a carryover dam, a development dam, an inter-seasonal dam. It is a river regulation dam. It is a multipurpose dam in a real sense and a dam of national integration.

Guroh Dop Dam on Panjkora River/Swat River

Guroh Dam is water security dam. It is a flood control dam. It will irrigate about 32000 acres of barren land. It will produce about 600 MW of hydropower. It has the second largest storage reservoir after Katzarah Dam. The storage capacity of Guroh Dop Dam is 8.5 maf or 1.4 times the storage of Basha Dam or Kalabagh Dam.