To.

              The Chief Justice of Lahore High Court

              Honorable Umar Ata Bandial ,

              LAHORE.

Sub: Technical status of Kalabagh Dam. Petition by Syed Feroz Gilani in the High Court, Lahore.  (Information for the assistance of the court)

Sir,

              I request the court considering my views based on facts and experience, free of water politics as 37 years long status quo in Kalabagh issue destroyed the country by 2010 floods, 2011 rains, and crippling load shedding.  My views are to help the court by revealing facts. Kalabagh Dam has become a puzzling dilemma for all political parties in power to build or not to build the Dam. Lack of decision has created long status quo. This cancer needs cure.

I am former Chairman IRSA. I have expertise in Dams and Reservoir Engineering and have more than 50 years experience in Water and hydropower development Resources. I am Distinction holder in Dams and Reservoir Engineering. I am the discoverer of 12 mega Dams in Pakistan during the period 1959 to 1962. I was in-charge of Dams Investigation Division. I submit in brief my views on Kalabagh dam’s technical feasibility as I have read all the 27 volumes of Kalabagh Dam Feasibility Report prepared by the Consultants when I was Chairman IRSA in 1994. I want to help solve this ugly issue from professional point of view in national interest.

This is because the controversy and not building dams destroyed the country by 2010 floods and the crippling load shedding due to long status quo intentionally caused by WAPDA. It did  not build any other dam on the Indus though Basha Dam feasibility was ready in 1981. WAPDA stuck to Kalabagh Dam and misguided the people and the Government. Unfortunately all the heads of the Departments are non-professionals who depend on the advice of lower staff.

To settle this ugly issue, I suggested unique substitute of “Raised Fateh Barrage” in place of Kalabagh Dam, involving change in hydraulic design and shifting the dam site about 3 miles upstream in the Indus valley in 1994 when I was Chairman IRSA. Basically the new structure conceived by me is a kind of combination of small dam over Raised Barrage which evacuates silt, passes maximum floods safely, as well as creates reasonable storage, and generates hydropower. My concept of Raised Barrage is in agreement with the consultant’s recommendation as it is clear from the first excerpt quoted in this report. The present site of Kalabagh Dam is on the downstream of Soan River and Indus River. The dam is about two miles long and is on the downstream of the confluence of Indus River and Soan River. None of the four provinces know the technical aspects of Kalabagh Dam. My sincere professional views on a project are in national interest and in the interest of development of sound Water and Power Resources for the country.

I agree, the objections of all the three provinces on Kalabagh Dam are vague, as these are based on lack of information, with no technical knowledge and understanding of the Kalabagh Dam’s hydraulic  design, and its adverse consequences. The provinces only play water politics without knowing the technical side of Kalabagh Dam. No technical objection is made by any province.

Exactly is the case with Punjab, as Punjab too is ignorant and its politicians only aggravate the issue politically that has influenced WAPDA at Lahore. Equally ignorant is WAPDA. Apparently Kalabagh is not the site for the Dam as chosen by WAPDA. This is evident from the poorest Capacity-inflow ratio on the Indus of (6:93). The reservoir will have short life due to rapid silting. Annual silt flow is about 540 million tons, converting this in to volume, it comes to 0.3 maf. The storage capacity of Kalabagh is about 6.1 maf. The reservoir will silt up in about 25 to 30 years as it will not evacuate heavy sediment load that will be deposited upstream of Attock gorge.  At the same time it will cause severe backwater flow and flooding of Peshawar valley.

The silt deposited upstream of Attock gorge will not be evacuated due to wrong hydraulic design imposed by WAPDA on the consultant in the TOR, except a very small amount. Refer to KBD main project report Vol 1. Few excerpts are quoted at the end of this report. Huge silt will be deposited on the upstream of Attock gorge, will create severe backwater flow and flooding in Peshawar valley.  Nowshera and all villages will be severely inundated. Even during 2010 floods, the floodwater level on the G.T road opposite to Nowshera was as high as 12 to 14 feet over the road. This was without a dam at Kalabagh. What will happen after the dam may be imagined.

WAPDA’s motto is “Kalabagh Dam or no Dam”. This is clear from the fact that WAPDA did not build the second dam on the Indus after Tarbela Dam in 37 years. Tarbela was completed in 1974. Surprisingly, Basha Dam feasibility was completed in 1981. It was ready for construction but WAPDA did not built it and stuck to Kalabagh Dam. Basha will be completed in 10 years from now. This means no dam on the Indus for 47 years. It was a great blunder not to build Basha in 1981.

The obstinacy of WAPDA and its political wish and 37 years delay in not building the second dam on the Indus resulted in the devastating floods of 2010, destroying 22 per cent area of fertile land and population, created horrible load shedding, crippling economy, and water shortage beside creating silt problem that results the in loss of storage water. What a colossal loss. WAPDA practically turned into Water and Power Destructive Authority.

For no dams in 37 years, it created 3 maf water shortage for irrigation this season. The water requirements of provinces could not be met. Moreover, Tarbela Reservoir has silt up by about 5 maf of Live storage, against its original storage of 9.6 maf. We have lost about 6.5 maf of Live storage in Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma so far with no replacement by WAPDA. In fact, WAPDA should have built four dams in 37 years. The actual fault for delay and keeping the Government in dark lies with WAPDA.

WAPDA was created in 1958 to develop water and power resources but due to its political affiliation and professional inefficiency, it turned Water and Power Destructive Authority. Please read the attached three papers for ready reference.

Sir, the court will be surprised to know that I suggested in 1961 the construction of unique 35 maf Katzarah Dam with storage capacity of 35 maf of water that is about six times the storage capacity of Kalabagh Dam or Basha Dam. Katzarah Dam will control 100 per cent floods in the Indus River, generate huge hydropower and prevent silt flow in the Indus water. This is because all the silt comes from the Skardu valley that has highly erodible soil as reported by the world Bank hydraulic expert Dr Attaullah in 1974. If Katzarah Dam is built, the life of Basha will increase from about 80 to 90 years to about 700 years. Life of Tarbela will increase by about 45 years. This is a unique quality of building Katzarah Dam. Refer to my web site for article titled “Katzarah Dam short”.

The other multipurpose dam that I suggested in 1961 is the 8.5 maf multipurpose Guroh Dop Dam on Punjkora River. This dam if built will control 100 per cent floods in Kabul River. But, WAPDA is adamant to build Kalabagh Dam to follow its motto of “Kalabagh Dam or no Dam”.

Please refer to the Nisar Memon Parliamentary committee report who visited all the provinces and the AGN Kazi Technical committee report on Kalabagh Dam and other dams including Katzarah. Both the committees recommended Katzarah Dam on the Indus and rejected Kalabagh Dam after hearing the provinces.

To end mad controversy, I suggested a unique, feasible, and multipurpose, substitute replacing Kalabagh Dam in 1994 when I was Chairman IRSA. This substitute is of a “Raised Fateh Barrage”. This is a unique and simple, cheap and immediately implementable project at the end of the main Indus River about 3 miles on the upstream of the Kalabagh Dam site at Elevation of 700 feet. KBD is located at El: 680 feet.

The Raised Barrage can store 3.4 maf of water up to El 86o feet, 4.7 maf at El: 880 feet and about 6.2 maf water at El: 900 feet. Please refer to Kalabagh Dam storage capacity curve. All storage water will be within the Indus River valley. The Raised Fateh Barrage will function as a traditional barrage like Chashma and Taunsa. It will completely evacuate silt and pass maximum floods without causing backwater flow and floods in Kabul river of Peshawar valley. It will not inundate any area in any province.

There is no need of land acquisition and no land compensation. There is almost no population movement as storage is within the Indus River valley. Within the water-way where there is no population. The Raised Fateh Barrage will function as Balancing Reservoir if more power generation is required at Tarbela without the loss of irrigation water. It is highly beneficial for all provinces.

The Raised Fateh barrage installed hydropower generation will nearly be between 2000 MW to 6000 MW on run-of-the-river depending on the amount of flow in the Indus. There will be two power houses located on each bank. One is for Punjab and the other is for KPK. It can irrigate Lakki Marwat area of KPK from the Raised Barrage Reservoir through a tunnel. Raised Fateh Barrage can be completed within two and a half years at a cost of about $ 2 billion.  The major change is in hydraulic design that will evacuate silt and floods. If this proposal was implemented in 1994, there would have been almost no load shedding, and no water shortage. 

The KBD Project consultant suggested “100 days unrestricted low-level silt sluicing hydraulic structure” to evacuate silt and to pass maximum floods whereas, WAPDA wanted to implement “50 days restricted mid-level silt sluicing hydraulic structure” as per the tailored TOR  given by WAPDA to the consultants with instruction to follow what they desire. It was an unusual TOR to force the consultants to do something unprofessional and unusual. This design was to achieve a specific purpose of building the high level left bank canal with a discharge of 15,000 cusecs. Excerpt on TOR quoted at the end of this report.

WAPDA’s restricted mid-level sluicing design will cause huge and rapid deposition of silt upstream of the Attock gorge, severe backwater flow, and flooding, in Peshawar valley. The floodwater will inundate Nowshera town, and other vast areas. The entire area will become calamity hit area.

 It may be noted that during the 2010 floods when there was no dam at Kalabagh, all area around Nowshera was inundated up to 12 to 14 feet floodwater, flowing over the GT Road opposite to Nowshera Town. What will happen after the dam?

The dependable power generation from Kalabagh Dam, after reducing its height from 925 feet to 915 feet, is about 1250MW and not 3450 MW as claimed by WAPDA. Kalabagh Dam will be on run-of-the-river for about more than three months in a year to pass floodwater. One month will be spent in empting and filling the reservoir. Therefore there will be no power generation during this period.

Surprisingly, to support the low hydropower generation, WAPDA has instructed the consultants to install 2000 MW of Thermal Power Plant attached to Kalabagh Dam. WAPDA falsely claim that KBD will produce 3450 MW of power. Besides this, there are many other flaws.

The Kalabagh Dam site is not for a high dam due to weak foundation, therefore the Project Consultant  have recommended that the hydraulic head of the structure at this site should not be higher than 160 feet due to weak foundation, whereas, WAPDA is building 260 feet high dam at Kalabagh. Refer to Volume XIII Miscellaneous, July 1988, the report by Prof Skemton and Mr Little, the consultants for Kalabagh Dam.

The risk is taken because WAPDA wants to take off a high level canal with a discharge of 15,000 cusecs on the left bank of the Indus River. This is the reason that Sindh has lost trust in WAPDA and objects to Kalabagh Dam.

WAPDA is not at all trust worthy because it kept the design of Kalabagh Dam secret from NWFP as stated by the then Member Water Mr Shams ul Mulk in a meeting held at Peshawar with the Additional Chief Secretary Development (Mr Khalid Azia) who demanded a copy of the Kalabagh Dam feasibility report for study. The Additional Chief Secretary was surprised to hear the answer of Member Water who refused to give a copy of the report as it was a secret document/classified document. The ACS said: how is it that you are building a dam in our territory and the design is kept secret from NWFP? Member Water could no longer refuse and gave a set of the Kalabagh Dam feasibility report.

Besides this, WAPDA provided freak design of 50 days restricted mid-level silt sluicing hydraulic structure in a freak TOR that will not evacuate silt and cause severe backwater flow and flooding in Kabul River in Peshawar valley. This design was adopted to build a dam with a height of 260 feet to be able to build Left Bank Canal.

For more information on Kalabagh Dam and on water development resources, please refer to my website “ fatehuk. blogspot. Com”. The website contains about 100 articles, on Water and power issues of Pakistan and their solutions. The website is visited by about 8500 Research workers and Engineers throughout the world. Also refer to articles on Substitute for KBD, on Kalabagh Dam, and on Water and Power Destructive Authority, Katzarah Dam, Guroh Dop Dam, Akhori Dam and many other dams, besides suggesting many water and power projects

I am 86 years old, and recently unable to walk due to knee joints problem. I therefore cannot attend the court. In case, my advice is needed, I would suggest, the court may appoint  a commission  to record my views at my residence. My address is: 518, F-10/2, Margalla Rosd,  Islamabad. My line No is 051-2106387 and my mobile is : 0300-5920641. My email address Is  Fatehuk @ gmail. com.

I submit to the honorable Court few excerpts from the Kalabagh Dam project report indicating serious silt problem due to unsuitable hydraulic design because Kalabagh is not the site for a dam but for a barrage. The consultants have also indicated this in technical language in the excerpt immediately below, shown in bold besides other excerpts quoted below:-

·       “In Principle there is no specific mode of operation that must be adhered each year in order to sluice sediment from KBD, but the lower the draw down level, the longer this level is maintained and the higher the flows then the more effective the sluicing will be”. Refer to KBD project report page 3.8, para3.27. (This quotation in technical language suggests low level sluicing hydraulic structure like a barrage with unrestricted low level silt sluicing structure. The consultant could not over look the rigid TOR. Therefore they expressed their views in technical language. Let WAPDA understand it. )

·       “The high sediment load carried by the Indus at Kalabagh has an important bearing on the design of KBD and on the operation rules for the reservoir. If a high proportion of sediment is trapped the storage volume would rapidly reduce with the loss of irrigation benefits derived from storage. Such sedimentation could eventually also cause unacceptable backwater effects”. Refer to Project Report 1988, page 3.5, para 3.17.

·        This excerpt shows that silt evacuation depends on the design of the dam as it has an important bearing on the design of Kalabagh Dam.

·       “However although draw down is required for irrigation benefits, the lower the draw down level and the longer the sluicing period, the greater is the loss of power and energy generation”. Refer to Project report 1988, page 3.8, para 3.27     

“Upstream of Attock the flood levels are sensitive to the amount of sediment so that flood level will increase with time”. 

·       The future distribution of sediment can be predicted in general terms only and local behavior will depend on actual sediment inflows, reservoir operation and local flow pattern”.

·       “No immediate solution to sediment management seems to be practically viable”.

·       “In the long run the generation of power will be on run-of-the-river”.

Refer to project report para 3.17, page 4.12, para 4.57, page 3.9, para 3.31.

Tailored TOR

“Basically the design criteria were set during the initial appraisal of scheme and development out line design. These were based on the requirements of the client through the Terms of Reference or subsequent instructions”. Refer to Project Volume N, Appendix N.

IRSA rejected the hydraulic design of restricted mid-level silt sluicing of Kalabagh Dam on 22.10. 1996 with 4:1 majority as the design would not evacuate silt. Refer to The Frontier Post. The consultants recommended “50 days restricted low-level silt sluicing structure”.

“Mr Yuki Tanabe, a representative of Japan Centre of Sustainable Society has termed the proposed Kalabagh Dam disastrous for people, agriculture, and environment. Refer to DAWN datd September, 2006”.

W APDA overlooked all above.

Recommendations

The proposed “Raised Fateh Barrage” is a trouble free, short term, cheap, technically sound, and a multipurpose, non-controversial and unique substitute for KBD. It is a highly improved and flawless version of Kalabagh Dam nearly at the same location. It will use all technical deta collected for Kalabagh Dam. The KBD colony at site will be used. Dispute and political controversy will end. It will evacuate silt and pass maximum floods. It will cause no backwater flow and flooding in Peshawar valley. It needs no land acquisition, no land compensation and almost no population displacement because the storage will be within the waterway. It generates hydropower and creates storage from 3.4 maf to 6.2 maf.

The consultants should work out which storage is the best and economical. It will mitigate floods and serve as Balancing Reservoir. This project will give breathing time for undertaking other mega storage dams on the Indus. Let WAPDA EGO allow this unique, substitute project, and appreciate it in national interest. This is to end sufferings of the people created by WAPDA.

   

Engr. Fateh ullah Khan  Gandapur, Former Chairman IRSA.           Dated Aug, 9, 2012.

B.Sc Engg’, ist Division, (Distinction in Dams and Reservoir Engineering), M.ASCE (USA), FIE (Pak)

518, F-10/2, Margalla Road, Islamabad.  Mobile  0300-5920641  and  051-2106387.

Copy to:

              The Secretary Water and Power, Islamabad

              Chairman Indus River System Authority, Islamabad

              The Chief Minister of KPK, Chief Minister House, PESHAWAR

              Chief Minister Government of Sindh, KARACHI

              Chief Minister of Government of Punjab, LAHORE

              Chief Minister of Baluchistan, QUETTA   For information and further action