Intra-state and intra-province politics over dam building

Intra-state problems on dams building created by India

Pakistan faces two problems over dam building. The one is intra-provincial and the other is intra-state. The intra-state problem created by India in occupied Kashmir on dams building is mostly political. India is upper riparian, as all the six rivers originate from occupied Kashmir. Kashmir is under forcible occupation of 800,000 armed forces by India, therefore, India controls rivers waters by building dozens of dams and barrages on all the six rivers, (three Western rivers allocated to Pakistan and three Eastern rivers allocated to India). India is using water as a weapon of mass destruction against Pakistan besides creating Pak-Afghan issue on Kabul River water.

Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River

India is creating Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River water by building a dam in Afghanistan. This is with the intention to reduce water supplies in Kabul River that will seriously affect power generation at Warsak Dam, and reduce water supplies to Kabul River canal irrigation system.

 During the flood season, Kabul River overflows its banks and damages vast areas. This trouble is aggravated at Attock when floodwater from the Indus River flows into Kabul River as backwater flow inundating vast areas including Nowshera town.

 About 50 years ago, I proposed to build Mirkhani Dam on Chitral River also called Kunard River. In order to control floods in Kabul River, I suggested to by-pass the floodwater of Chitral River through a tunnel, falling in to the catchment area of Panjkora River for storage in Shigo Katch Reservoir. This will reduce floods in Kabul River,

 In 1960, I discovered Guroh Dop Dam site on Panjkora River that has a huge reservoir of 8.5 maf storage capacity called Shigo Katch. The Shigo Katch Reservoir would store about 3 maf of flood water of Panjkora River. This reservoir would also store the floodwater from Chitral River. This proposal will reduce floods in Kabul River and also avoid wastage due to floods.

The Government of Pakistan and Afghanistan have not yet taken Pak-Afghan issue over Kabul River in the form of a Treaty. The project would produce about 2000 MW of hydropower in combination with Guroh Dop Dam. Pakistan is extremely slow to act, till crises develop. A water Treaty between Pakistan and Afghanistan is very necessary to avoid future conflicts.

Dams building in occupied Kashmir     

 One is surprised that India is changing the natural course of the Indus River allocated to Pakistan by diverting its flow that is not permissible under the Indus Waters Treaty. India can only build low dams on run-of-the-river direct for power generation but not changing its natural course. High dams building are not desirable as they involve the creation of large “live storage reservoir for irrigation purposes”. Moreover, the creation of dead storage is loss to Pakistan as it holds more water in dozens of dams in violation of the Treaty. India is planning to build a tunnel from Kargil to use Indus River water. This needs confirmation.

 Similarly, it has built a 22 Km long tunnel for diverting Neelum-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan’s 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum Project. India is building a huge network of water storage facility comprising dozens of dams, the national river linking projects at an estimated cost of $120 billion likely to be completed by 2016.

 The linking of rivers involves the transfer of water from one river to the other. This is again violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. The linking of rivers includes construction of Basrur multi-power project, Siwalkot dam, Pakot Dul dam, Dulhasti dam, Dugar dam, Gondhala dam, Reoli/Dugli dam, Kirthal hydropower project that will tremendously decrease the flow of Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. India has also started work on Uri-1 and Uri-2 on Chinab River in addition to the already constructed 474 feet high Baglihar Dam. India is building the Uri power project to produce 240 MW of power.

India has started preparation for the construction of Bursar Dam that is a very high, big dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. The height of Bursar Dam is 829 feet with storage capacity of more than 2 maf of water and power generation of 1200 MW. India has also planned to build a 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric Power Project high dam on Chinab River.     

India has planned all this to destroy Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture by water terrorism. India has planed to convert the world’ largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the Indus basin into almost desert. India wants the people of Pakistan should starve to death. Hitler killed 6 million Jews during the world war II. India would kill 200 Pakistani without war but using water weapon for mass destruction. UN should take notice of it to avoid nuclear conflict in South Asia.

India holds Pakistan’s waters on all six rivers  

It is roughly estimated that India would be holding about 10 maf of water as dead storage in its dozens of low and high dams. This is a shear loss to Pakistan though it will be once. Moreover, it is alarming to observe that India would be storing more than 9 maf of perennial water as live storage for irrigation purposes. One maf of water is worth $2 billion. This means Pakistan has suffered a loss of $ 20 billion for the dead storage created by dozens of dams.

 Similarly, it is estimated that India will be holding more than 9 maf of perennial river waters stored in various dams. This is again a recurring loss of 9 maf of live storage each year to Pakistan. India is allowed under the Treaty to retain only (2.85+1.34)=4.19 maf of water. India’s share is 4.19 maf of water. India holds about 5 maf of extra perennial water of live storage for that India is not entitled. This is worth about $10 billion each year. In addition to this, India would immediately convert southern Punjab of Pakistan dry.  

The reduction of the above quantity of water is severely affecting irrigated agriculture in the southern part of Pakistani Punjab during the keen demand period as its share of perennial water is diverted by India. This part of Pakistan is deprived of at least 6 maf of its water share.

 In replacement to the waters of the Eastern Rivers diverted by India, the Treaty provides to create equivalent perennial storage water on the Western Rivers by building dams on the  Indus at Tarbela, and on Jhelum River at Mangla. This clearly shows, the exchange of water by giving gravity flow perennial water to India and in replacement Pakistan got perennial storage water that is subjected to reduction by silting and requires replenishment.

 As a consequence, Pakistan is entitled to receive recurring stored perennial water on Western Rivers to make up the deficiency of 6 maf water lost to silting. Pakistan therefore needs replacement of 6 of maf of storage lost at Tarbela and Mangla due to silting under the Treaty. Please refer to article XI (a) (3) and article XII (2) (3) of the Indus Water Treaty that clearly states “The rights and obligations of each party under this treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained therein, or by anything arising out of the execution of…”(XI) (3).

 The Treaty under article XI (a) “governs the matters incidental thereto” The silting of storage is a matter incidental thereto. The article XII (2) provides “to ratify the Treaty”.

 “The Treaty can be modified from time to time” XII (2) (3). This is necessary to always equate the storage water of Western Rivers with the perennial flow of water of the three Eastern Rivers diverted by India. This equating balance is the crux of the Treaty. The IWT states in its para XI (3) that “The rights and obligations of each party under this Treaty shall remain unaffected by any provisions contained in or by anything arising out of the execution of, any agreement establishing the Indus Basin Development Fund.

Pakistan lost 6 maf of replacement storage water that needs replenishment  

During the past 36 years, the perennial storage water from Tarbela and Mangla have silted up by 6 maf. Pakistan has permanently lost perennial stored water or the “replacement water under the Treaty”, and requires its replenishment under the Treaty. Silting matter is incidental. Pakistan has the right for its replenishment otherwise waters from the three Eastern Rivers be restored as on August 15, 1947. Alternately, India should arrange 6 maf storage water lost to silting. India must stop building dams to make available 6 maf of water. India has retained dead storage as well as live storage that adversely affect Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture.           

Treaty or no Treaty, the international laws on water for lower riparian safeguards the water rights of the people of Pakistan that used water for 150 years from these rivers through head works that now the British unjustly gave it to India and sown the seed of permanent conflict.

The building of a dam by India for Afghanistan proves that India has bad intentions against Pakistan and wants to destroy its irrigated agriculture to create famine in Pakistan. India should know Pakistan would never tolerate that its people should die of hunger. India is therefore imposing nuclear war. This nuclear war will not be one sided like the bombing of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. This war will kill most of 1.4 billion people of the sub-continent.

Nuclear war will destroy earth’s environment simply because the British drew a wrong line to bifurcate the sub-continent and unjustly helped India by handing over the head works of canals to destroy Pakistan. The Indian army about 800,000 soldiers well equipped are stationed in occupied Kashmir and holding it by force.

India refused to implement the UN resolution for referendum. Kashmir rightly belongs to Pakistan, as it is a Muslim majority area and all rivers originate from Kashmir but the British played a political role to hand it over to India by sowing the seeds of conflict. The British handed over the head works of canals to India in a wrong and unjust partition.

Besides Kashmir, India occupied the states of Junagarh and Manawadar, and the state of Hyderabad Daccan forcibly.

India has no principles and would never settle the issue of water that is linked to Kashmir. India would be responsible for imposing a nuclear war or as I foresee would compel the hungry of Fata, Afghanistan and Pakistan to enter India in search of food with a force of suicide bombers and hundred thousands of fierce and formidable gorilla fighters trained in war against Russia whom it defeated and now are involved with USA and Pakistan. These peoples can go any-where they like. They can cause damage not less than any bloody war. Pakistan suffered tremendously at their hands because we sided with USA.  A quick and meaningful settlement of Kashmir is in the interest both neighbours. This will also solve water issue.

Intra-provincial politics over building of dams

Pakistan is the most unfortunate self destroy country in the world. It has stuck itself in the quagmire of intra-politics over the building of dams irrespective of the technical merits of a dam and its benefits to the nation. Pakistan gave no less loss to its irrigated agriculture than India who built dozens of dams. Pakistan built no big dam after 1974 that is 36 years ago. This resulted in crippling load shedding and water shortage. Pakistan has suffered a loss of $50 billion on account of load shedding and would suffer more each year.

WAPDA created status quo on an infeasible Kalabagh Dam

WAPDA and Punjab created status quo to build the most highly controversial dam at Kalabagh. Kalabagh Dam is a tailored one selected at random and the project consultants were restricted not to change the design or site of the dam but follow their instructions in the tailored TOR. The Consultants were instructed to do as WAPDA wants to do. This is something criminal and unprofessional.

 WAPDA kept the feasibility report of Kalabagh Dam secret from the provinces for its obvious faults. It was Khalid Aziz the then Chief Secretary directed WAPDA to submit the KBD Project report to the Government of NWFP. It was found from the feasibility report that the hydraulic design and height of the dam was wrong and technically unsound. WAPDA dictated the Project Consultants to provide restricted mid-level sluicing hydraulic design but the consultants recommended unrestricted low-level sluicing design as silt would rapidly be deposited upstream of the Attock gorge and backwater flow in Kabul River will inundate Peshawar valley.

 The unfeasible hydraulic design given by WAPDA would only generate 1450 MW of hydropower, therefore the consultants were advised to provide 2000 MW of thermal power plant to support hydropower.

The consultants advised WAPDA to raise a hydraulic structure up to only 160 feet, as Kalabagh Dam foundation is weak. WAPDA insisted to provide 260 high Dam so that a left bank canal with a length of 1500 miles is taken to feed the Mangla command system.

The dam is designed for an earthquake intensity of 7 on Rector scale but an earth quake of 8.4 was experienced in the area in 2005. Besides the above, there are many more flaws in the project. WAPDA and Punjab even then insisted to build it. This created status quo. Therefore, no new dam was constructed though feasibility of Basha Dam was prepared in 1981. The unique 35-maf Katzarah Dam, with 15,000 MW of hydropower and a life span of 1000 years was ignored.

Alternative to Kalabagh Dam

I have suggested an alternative to Kalabagh Dam by changing its height, hydraulic design by providing unrestricted low-level sluicing hydraulic design in the shape of a barrage placed over a low dam. The new site would be shifted 4 miles on the upstream of Kalabagh Dam site on the Indus. The low dam will store dead storage and the barrage would store live storage besides regulating silt and water. Storage in the new proposal will be with in the valley. No land acquisition is needed, no land compensation. No area is inundated and no backwater flow. The water and power benefits of this proposal would be more than two times of the Kalabagh Dam with no silting problem, no backwater flow and long life span. The barrage-cum-dam will act as balancing reservoir for Tarbela to produce additional power when required and store the released water again. There is solution to every problem provided one seeks it. 

Water Accord 1991 not implemented that created provincial water dispute

The Ministry of Water and Power did not build storage dams for implementing paras 2, 4, and 14 (e) of the Water Accord because of the status quo on Kalabagh Dam by the Government. Water Accord para 2 has distributed 117.35 maf of perennial flow between the provinces against the available perennial flow of about 105 maf diverted into the network of canal system in 1991 at the time of Water Accord preparation.

 Water Accord para 4 provides to create the balance storage by storing flood water to make up the deficiency of (117.35-105)=12.35 maf. Due to decrease in rivers flow, the perennial flow of 105 maf is now reduced to 96 maf. This created an additional  shortage of water of (105-96)=9 maf. The total shortage of water in para 2 comes to (117.35-96)=21.35 maf.

 Water Accord para 13 directs IRSA to implement paras 2, 4, and 14 (e) of the Water Accord. In spite of all this, the Government ignored to implement Water Accord and did not create the storage of 21.35 maf to implement paras 2 and 4 as well para 14 (e).

 Over and above this, we have already lost 6 maf of water due to silting of Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma barrage. The lost water is replacement water that needs replenishment under the Indus Waters Treaty. Therefore, Pakistan should have built storage dams to create (21.35+6)=27.35 maf of water. Alas! No one bothers in Pakistan for its people who suffers at the hands of India as well as Pakistan.

There are no dam sites in Pakistan to store 27.35 maf of water except Katzarah Dam. The only river in Pakistan is the Indus where water can be stored. There are no storage dam sites on Jhelum River and Chinab river in Pakistan. All such dam sites are in Kashmir, and India is making use of it and Pakistan is gasping on looker.

Katzarah the unique dam site on the Indus intentionally ignored creating sever power and water shortage.

During the period from 1959 to 1961, I discovered 12 multipurpose mega dam sites in Pakistan. The preliminary feasibility reports of all these dams were submitted to WAPDA, the Ministry of Water and Power, and the Ministry of Agriculture but no action was taken by any body for decades.

I discovered a unique dam site at Katzarah on the Indus in 1961 about 20 miles downstream of Skardu town when its population was hardly about 3000 to 4000 people. Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team confirmed Katzarah Dam site in 1968.

 Katzarah Dam site is unique in the world for its many unique features. Katzarah has the narrowest dam site in the world. It is only 200 to 250 feet wide at riverbed level with almost vertical gorge. Katzarah would be the tallest dam in the world with a height of about 1250 feet. It has a storage capacity of 35 maf, one of the largest in the world and 5 maf more than that of Hoover Dam or Boulder Dam on Colorado River.

 The storage created by Katzarah Dam is six times the storage capacity of Basha Dam or Kalabagh Dam. Its power generation capacity is about 15,000 MW. Its life span is about 1000 years. It will irrigate a barren area of about 6 million acres of land in all the four provinces. It is a super flood control dam.

Katzarah’s cheap hydropower will irrigate higher lands by lifting water and will be used to run sprinkler and drip irrigation systems efficiently. Katzarah is the cheapest dam in the world per maf of storage water and per MW of hydropower.

The specific, unique feature of Katzarah Dam is that it will control the flow of silt carried by the Indus water that rapidly silts all the downstream reservoirs. Tarbala Dam is silted by 5 maf with in 36 years. Basha Dam whose life is estimated to be 80 years will be prolonged up to 800 years if Katzarah Dam is built in time.

 The source of silt flow in the Indus water is the Skardu valley whose soil is highly erodible. This soil will come under reservoir and silt flow from soil erosion will stop.

Katzarah Dam due to its huge storage capacity and long life span will serve as a carryover dam, water shed management dam, water management dam, super flood control dam, irrigation dam, replacement dam, power generation dam, and environment mitigating dam.

 Katzarah would serve as climate change mitigating dam, a dam for raising artificial forests to reduce the injurious affects of carbon-dioxide. Katzarah Dam will replace 6 maf of storage lost due to silting and also implement the Water Accord requirements of 21.35 maf of water.

All dam sites on the Indus River on the downstream of Basha Dam have small storage capacities ranging between 3 maf to 4 maf. Katzarah is the only unique dam site on the Indus.

Survival of irrigated agriculture in Pakistan to avoid famine.

Most of Pakistan’s irrigated agriculture is destined to become a desert by design because India is storing, diverting river waters by changing its natural courses and building dozens of dams including very high dams on all the six rivers that originate from Kashmir. The climate change will aggravate shortages of water. The rapid silting of reservoir will reduce the storage water. The “no building policy of dams” by Pakistan will add fuel to the fire.

Integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) a dire necessity

Big dams are the component of integrated comprehensive water management. Pakistan has not yet planned to carry out Integrated Comprehensive Water Management to save 50% or about 45 to 50 maf of water wasted due to seepage and system wastages in the 150 years old and obsolete canal irrigation system that needs modernization. The water wastage is about 50 % of canal withdrawals. There is no control over floodwater for lack of storage.

Absence of Drainage system to control salinity

 The drainage of land is an integral part of ICWM. The world’s largest contiguous canal irrigation system has no drainage system to remove injurious salts out of the area, control water table and maintain salt and water balance. The one million small tube wells pumping about 45 to 50 maf of injurious groundwater drainage effluent are destroying fertile lands gradually and invisibly as no sub-surface tile drainage system - a vital part of irrigation system, is provided to control salinity, sodicity and water logging. Besides this, the world’s largest canal irrigations system has no support of a big dam to regulate flow of water as required.

In a period of about 25 years, most of land in the Indus basin would turn saline, population would touch a figure of 350 million people and India would dry a good part of all river flows to Pakistan. Besides crippling load shedding, Pakistan would face deadly famine due to shortage of water. The only way to save the situation is that Pakistan must get Kashmir to get control over the flows of rivers that originate from Kashmir. Besides this, Pakistan must build Katzarah Dam as a component of water management and water shed management. Drainage of land is vital to protect land from salinity, sodicity and water logging. If lands go saline then there is no need to build dams to store water, as water would be useless for saline lands.

Modernization of the obsolete and wasteful canal irrigation system

 Pakistan must modernize its obsolete canal irrigation system to avoid wastage of water of about 45 to 50 maf by undertaking water management true to its technical definition as given by ADB or the World Bank, and provide sub-surface tile drainage to remove, control salinity, sodicity and water logging. The other alternative left is to die of hunger due to famine.

 The UN and the world at large, specially, the USA and the British Government must take the issues of Kashmir and water seriously. History would blame British Government for wrong partition of the sub-continent and for initiating the killing of most of 1.4 billion population of this region if a horrible war starts on Kashmir and water.

 The UN is blamed for its ineffectiveness due to political reasons for not implementing its 60 years old pending resolution. Let the UN save the earth’s environment from radiation and destruction that could suddenly aggravate the climate change. Therefore, it is not the problem of India and Pakistan alone but it has become the problem of the whole world.