Nuclear war on water rights in South Asia

Unjust partition of India by Britain created Water issues and Kashmir dispute

The British Government is blamed for the wrong partition of India and Pakistan by handing over Kashmir (the Muslim majority area) and the control of canal head works to India. This created water conflict. Wrong partition is the height of injustice in human history. It may lead to nuclear war if quick and lasting solution of Kashmir dispute and water issues are not found. The British cartographers failed to consider the-run-of-the rivers while partitioning the sub-continent. The control over the area where the water headwaters lie was unjustly given to India with the intension to sow the seed of conflict. The Indian armed forces about 800,000 forcibly occupied the Muslim majority area of Kashmir and killed hundred thousand people who want freedom.

 The irrigation from the Indus system of rivers is the lifeline of civilization in what is now Pakistan since 2600 B.C. The British have sown the germs of future conflict in South Asia. Water is the source for survival without which Pakistan will almost turn into desert and its 200 million populations would face famine and die of hunger.

Many experts fear that one day the dispute over water – already an incessant source of diplomatic skirmishes – will propel these two nuclear weapons states into all-out war if reasons fail to settle the issues of Kashmir and water in time. Kashmir where these rivers originate is vital for Pakistan, as it is a matter of survival for Pakistan.

 India planned to use water as a weapon of mass destruction silently by building dozens of dams and barrages, changing the natural course of rivers building  a huge network of water storage facility the national river linking projects to create shortage of water in Pakistan turning its millions of irrigated lands almost go dry. The people would starve and out of shear compulsion, this situation may lead to a nuclear war.

 India forcibly occupied Kashmir, Hyderabad Dacan, Junagarh and Manawadar states                             

Morally it is the British Government responsibility to pressurize India to vacate the forcible occupation of Kashmir. The ownership of the above three states should be re-established on the basis of population for the sake of peace in South Asia. Help of UN may be sought to solve water issues. Kashmir and water are not separate issues. This is because all of Pakistan’s water resources originate from Kashmir, a Muslim majority area forcibly occupied by India. The very partition of India was based on the Muslim majority or Hindu majority areas. Pakistan being a peaceful country kept quiet when Indian Army forcibly occupied the State of Hyderabad Daccan and the State of Junagarh and Manawadar that acceded to Pakistan– a Hindu majority areas but captured by India. India being unreasonable violated this principle by occupying both the Hindu and the Muslims majority areas. This shows India is aggressive and has no principles.

India violated UN resolution on Kashmir that created water issues

Again, India has refused to implement the UN resolution for referendum in Jammu and Kashmir for the last about 60 years. This created water issues. Indian army forcibly occupied Kashmir, killed hundreds and thousands of innocent Kashmiri. No one in the world raised voice to oppose the massacre. Coercion of this type leads to war.

India violates Indus Waters Treaty creating water issues and change in environment

Over and above, India is aggressively violating the Indus Waters Treaty. India is building dozens of dams and barrages on the three Western Rivers allocated to Pakistan besides building dams on the three Eastern Rivers allocated to India. India is storing water that adversely affects irrigated agriculture in Southern Punjab of Pakistan. India is violating the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) by changing the natural course of the Indus River allocated to Pakistan by diverting its flow through a 48 Km long tunnel near Kargil. This is unnatural, and is against the spirit of Treaty. India has created multiple water issues and changes in various regions and their environments.

 The Treaty only allows generation of hydropower on run-of-the-river through the construction of low dams and NOT by changing the natural course of the Indus River. Similarly, the Treaty does not allow to build 829 feet high Bursar dam and 475 feet high Baglihar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. India is also diverting the course of another river. A 22 Km long tunnel is to divert Neelum-Jhelum water for Kishan Ganga power project that threatens Pakistan’s 930 MW Neelum-Jhelum Project. India has taken in hand the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric Power Project with a high dam. 

The aggregate dead storage capacity created by all the projects is roughly estimated to be about 10 maf. The live storage created by all projects originating in Kashmir is roughly estimated to be about 9 maf. Such storage will further increase. The Treaty allows India to use 2.85 maf of water on the three Western Rivers and 1.34 maf of water on the three Easter Rivers. The total comes to 4.19 maf. Hence, India uses extra live storage waters of about 5 maf that comes to Pakistan’s share.

 This may still increase as many dams on all the six rivers are planned for construction. The benefits from one maf of water is equal to $ 2 billion. This means India inflicted a loss of $20 billion once for the dead storage and annual recurring loss of $10 billion for using perennial live storage water that belongs to Pakistan.

India has embarked upon the construction of a huge network of water storage facility, the national river linking project at an estimated cost of $120 billion likely to be completed by 2016. It includes the construction of Basrur multi-power project, Siwalkot dam, Dul hasti dam, Dugar dam, Gandhala dam, Reoli/Dugli dam, Sachkhas dam, Tandi dam, Teling Tinget dam, Seli dam, Raoli dam, Kirthal hydropower project and Pakot Dul dam on Chenab River. This is in addition to the already built 475 feet high Baglihar Dam and the proposed 829 feet high Bursar dam on Chinab River allocated to Pakistan. According to information, India is starting the construction of 690 MW Rattle hydroelectric power project high dam on Chinab River.    

In view of the above multiple injustices and deprivations, Pakistan will have to choose either to become almost a desert subjecting most of its 200 million populations to die a miserable death due to hunger or die in an imposed nuclear war. The result would be the elimination of most of 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent by a horrible nuclear war. It is therefore not good for India to fight a war of nerves but to make a just, quick and reasonable settlement of Kashmir that would solve water issue. If Kashmir issue is settled, then there will be no war but permanent peace and the two nuclear countries would prosper.

Famine due to shortage of water to create food riots

There is yet another impending danger of unrest when water shortage would cause famine  in Pakistan, Fata, and in Afghanistan. The danger is that the hungry tribal people of Fata, Pakistan and Afghanistan would try to enter India for search of food. There will be population movement in search of food involving change in environment. Hunger, ignorance and poverty would compel these people to restart terrorist activities once again if they do not get food. These people got training to fight Russians when Russia  attacked Afghanistan, and after the defeat of Russians USA has made the same mistake to fight them. USA also got help of Pakistan who suffered tremendously.

In Afghanistan and in Tribal areas of Pakistan, children born during war are born fighters that become terrorists due to hunger, illiteracy and poverty. These people are fierce and formidable born gorilla fighters. It is learnt they have still a force of 10,000 suicide bombers as they claim. These people would go after food and create chaos in India. Pakistan Army mostly Pathans fought these terrorists successfully as fighters on both sides are Pathans and are equally fierce and formidable Let us avoid this situation as it could be prolonged for 20 to 30 years as in Ireland and in Afghanistan and now in Pakistan. Afghanistan and Fata depends for food grains on Pakistan. Therefore, its irrigated agriculture should not be harmed to feed these people, and to contain them in their areas.   

Every new dam built by India aggravates conflict in South Asia. There is planned move by India to starve Pakistan by destroying its largest contiguous canal irrigation system in the world with the weapon of aquatic bombs. Water is the most political weapon and is the source of conflict in South Asia. A hungry man fights without caring for consequences. Many world powers feared the dispute would go towards nuclear war.

Over and above, the climate change would play havoc with irrigated agriculture. On the other hand, India has reduced the flow of rivers by building dozens of dams and barrages. Most of the rivers waters come from disappearing glaciers of Himalayas as these glaciers are extremely vulnerable to climate change.

It is estimated that the flow of rivers may reduce by about 40% in the second phase of global warming. The first phase of global warming is the melting of glaciers that would cause sever floods.

 Kashmir is a matter of life and death for Pakistan. Water issue and Kashmir cannot be separated. Pakistan cannot survive without these. May be the nuclear neighbours go to war. It is therefore necessary that international powers who share the earth with Pakistan and India should influence India to settle Kashmir issue as it is pre-requisite for solving water issue.

America the most influential and powerful State in the world who is friend to India and Pakistan must help solve the 62 years old Kashmir problem if it is interested to avoid nuclear war that would destroy the whole environment on earth. A settlement of Kashmir is also in the interest of USA and the whole world as war would destroy environment and trigger climate change in its worst form. The British Government who created this problem knowingly should help settle the issue of Kashmir and water by joining USA and other countries. These two nations along with the UN must negotiate to settle these problems.

Pakistan already suffers due to economic, water and energy issues. Moreover, fight against terrorists has caused the Government and the people a total loss of $35+15=$50 billion. This is besides about 3500 troops killed including Brigadiers. The number of injured is in thousands. About 50,000 civilians are killed and about 4 million populations have been displaced due to war. About 70% of houses, schools, hospitals, bridges and roads are destroyed. Due to scarcity of funds, Pakistan is using money reserved for its development. The world powers are not giving promised funds to Pakistan though war is thrusting on Pakistan. Pakistan is not fighting its own war but is fighting to save others. Pakistan is pushed in to a quagmire.

The intension of India is to throttle Pakistan by reducing its water so that Pakistan faces deadly famine along with crippling load shedding. Events and circumstances would compel Pakistan to fight a nuclear war for its survival irrespective of its consequences, as Pakistan would face death by famine or death by nuclear war. India is a country with extremist elements that do not care world opinion. It will continue building dams and barrages, continue forcible occupation of Kashmir against the wishes of the people and go on violating the Indus Waters Treaty and the UN resolution. India will violate international laws on water for lower riparian country. These are conditions for triggering war.

India has no intention to implement UN resolution on Kashmir so that water issue is solved. India does not believe in reasons and do not foresee the grave outcome of unsolved serious and chronic issues like water and Kashmir. Britain and USA must seriously pressurize India to hand over Kashmir to Pakistan to prevent nuclear war. India has already captured the two states of Hyderabd Dacan and Junagarh and Manawadar by force. Let the dispute be settled by a team of experts to avoid horrible war. 

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan should send shivers around the world as it would damage the whole environment on earth. After all, we are talking not only about the destruction of a continent but of the whole earth itself. This war will not be like the two mini atom bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki by USA to stop world war II.

 There is a precedence of nuclear bombing, and this time dozens of powerful nuclear bombs would be used to destroy each other’s country and population. India would suffer many times more for its 1.2 billion populations, more industries, huge storage dams that would bring chaotic radioactive floods. It would be horrible. Therefore, the issue of Kashmir and water should not be pushed to climax. Safety of the sub-continent lies in settlement of all disputes.

 The sever radiation from nuclear explosions would cause catastrophic climate change on earth. Therefore, it is not a destructive war for Pakistan and India alone, but it will equally destroy countries on earth. I warn the UN and all countries of the world to help settle the issues of Kashmir and water. The UN resolution must be implemented.

 The Indus Waters Treaty should be modified as Pakistan’s water rights of perennial storage water must perennially be ensured to the limit that India diverted the perennial flow of the three Eastern Rivers. The silting of reservoirs in Pakistan is a continuous process. Pakistan will therefore permanently suffer due to the shortage of water on account of silting of its reservoirs. The problem will always stay alive. Over and above this, India has planned to cut off water supply from all the six rivers to convert Pakistan into almost a desert to starve its population. This is going to happen by the year 2016 as planned by India.

 As a consequence, a horrible nuclear war can be waged in self defense against water terrorism, alternately India may coolly ponder over the situation and gracefully hand over Kashmir to Pakistan in exchange for the two States of Hyderabad and Junagarh. We are neighbours and brothers, and therefore should do justice to each other for the sake of peace to achieve prosperity of the 1.4 billion population of the sub-continent.

 If Kashmir and water issues are not settled, the loser will be India who is planning to become world power. Pakistan is not in that class. It is immaterial for it to die of starvation or in a nuclear catastrophe. It will be in the interest of India and Pakistan to settle the issues of Kashmir and water gracefully so that permanent peace is assured in the sub-continent.

Nuclear conflict would destroy earth’s environment by radiation if water issues and Kashmir dispute not solved

The change in environment due to nuclear conflict will not be like the change in environment due to global warming, glacier melting and climate change on account of carbon emission. The routine climate change due to global warming will take a long time. Moreover, efforts are being made to mitigate the adverse effects of global warming and climate change.

 The change in environment due to nuclear conflict would be fetal and disastrous due to radiation. The radiation will kill people. Radioactivity will not only destroy environment of the sub-continent, South Asia, but of the whole earth. Increase in radiation will destroy most of the living creature on earth. It will kill animal life, plant life, marine life and the humankind. It will change the weather pattern. Rainfall would be radioactive. Radioactivity may even change the genetic of living creatures including humankind. It will create large scale abnormalities and diseases in living creatures. Man will misuse nuclear power for self-destruction. This would be most inhuman.

 The mischief-makers will destroy human race for politics and self-interest. Land will be unable to grow crops. Sources of drinking water will become radioactive. Humankind is one community, and the earth is the home of humankind. Let us not destroy our earth. Let us live like human beings and settle our disputes without war, as war is not paying. God inspired Conscience in man to know what is good for him and what is bad (Quran). All other creatures on earth have no Conscience, no Spirit but Life is common to all.