The coming Food crises

The Problems:                                

The International Food Policy Research Institute has warned, classifying Pakistan as a State that faces “serious hunger threat”. Pakistan faces breaking problems due to colossal Water Mismanagement in spite of abundant water and excellent land. About 45 to 50 maf of water is wasted due to seepage, and incompatibility of the 150 years old canal irrigation system with present crop water needs. The old canal irrigation system running a fixed discharge for low cropping intensity has become incompatible to meet water requirements of higher cropping intensities and cropping pattern. It needs Water Management and canal system modernization, including replacement of water courses by pipe supply.

 Pakistan wastes about 35 maf of water in floods on the average. It means we are wasting about 80 maf of water that is equal 13 times the storage capacity of Basha Dam. The Canal Irrigation System needs modernization to avoid all wastages. After building Katzarah and Basha Dams, the 14 miles wide Indus River bed, needs channelization to save water and reclaim land, beside preventing theft of water from the Indus River in Sindh and Punjab. 

The terrible wastage of water is not realized by the closed mind attitude of WAPDA. WAPDA never paid attention to Water Management to save huge quantity of water wasted and remove water shortage. The breaking problems that will cause hunger are shortage of Water and Power, rapid silting of reservoirs, devastating super Floods as of 2010, crippling load shedding, wasteful, incompatible and obsolete Canal Irrigation System, and food insecurity to cause hunger, and revolution, increasing salinity and sodicity in the Indus basin. The salinity problem is due to lack of Drainage system, a missing vital component of Irrigation. WAPDA wrongly conceived and executed SCARPs and NDP, the two mega drainage schemes, that badly failed as WAPDA did not know the technical definition of drainage of saline land. The increasing salinity will almost make the Indus basin infertile in about 40 years. President F.M. Mohammad Ayub Khan declared salinity as enemy number one of Pakistan. There is no use of water if lands get infertile due to salinity.

 Moreover, there is unchecked encroachments on natural drains in the country in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act that turned Sindh as the Drainage Bowl of the country. There is no spinal drain with defined waterway to quickly drain rain and flood water to sea but it flows in sheet-form very slowly standing for months.

Besides these problems, huge quantity of floodwater is wasted to sea damaging lands en-route because of no dam built on the Indus for 47 years (37+10). This negligence by WAPDA resulted in no increase in cropping area for the last many decades to meet ever increasing food requirements. This lapse is leading to hunger threat. The cultivable area can easily be increased more than 100 per cent including the entire Kachi plain of Baluchistan.

 The 22 per cent of Pakistan devastation by 2010 floods, and the crippling load shedding, has occurred for not building Katzarah and Guroh Dop dams by WAPDA since I discovered them and reported in early 1962. WAPDA stubbornly stuck to Kalabagh Dam creating 47 years long status quo in dam building. This created breaking problems including food.

Sindh is destroyed by rains in 2011 because there is no spinal drain and the drainage system. The natural drainage system is encroached and occupied by the people in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act. The encroachments on the huge drains in Sindh like Paran and Hakro are examples. Therefore flood and rainwater flow in sheet form, and is retained for months destroying crop land. Again, this will create food crises.

Three Savior Dams not known to WAPDA provides solution to many issues

Pakistan is faced with do or die situation. The rescue to water and power problems lies in 35-maf unique Katzarah Dam, the multipurpose 8.5 maf Guroh Dop Dam, and in a unique Raised Barrage, all the three initiated and discovered by me.

The unique raised barrage-cum-dam at the end of the Indus River valley

 The raised barrage is a short term relief project to ease water and power shortage. It is an excellent and feasible substitute for the controversial and technically infeasible Kalabagh Dam. The raised barrage on low dam will not silt. It will produce 2000 MW to 6000 MW of hydropower on run-of-the-river and create a reservoir of more than 3 maf to be repeatedly filled as the river flow at this point is about 93 maf. The reservoir will be confined to the Indus River valley few miles short of Attock gorge. This project does not involve land acquisition, land compensation and population displacement. Power houses would be located on both banks of the Indus, distributing royalty equally between Punjab and KP. The Possibility to irrigate the Laki Marwat area from the Lake may be investigated. The raised barrage project would serve as balancing reservoir if more power generation is required at Tarbela without wasting irrigation water. It will be an excellent water regulating reservoir to meet Rabi crop water requirements. Sindh and Baluchistan would benefit to get water during keen demand period. The raised will be completed with-in 3 years at one-sixth cost of Kalabagh Dam. It is a short to medium period hydropower generation project to be followed by Katzarah and Guroh Dop Dams. The prosperity of Pakistan including food security lies in the immediate implementation of these three projects by any means. I would call these 3 dams as the Three Savior dams of Pakistan.

Promulgation of Law in the National Assembly to build

the Three Savior Dams

A Law in an emergency situation may be passed in the National Assembly to implement the Three Savior Dams by what-ever means and measures adopted to avoid hunger and power riots due to power shortage to protect Pakistan from the incoming bloody revolution. This is more serious for us than the mercenary war on terror. These three savior dams of Pakistan will protect Pakistan against hunger. It will protect Pakistan, against super floods like of 2010, and heavy rains of 2011, make available hydropower, remove shortage of water and power, remove crippling load shedding, boost food production, control silting of reservoirs and increase life of reservoirs including increase in the life of Basha Dam from about 80 years to 800 years. It will meet the 22 maf storage demand of IRSA to implement Water Accord. It will save the world largest Canal irrigation system going non-perennial or run-of-the-river system when India diverts Rabi supplies. Beside this, there is no mega storage reservoir on the Indus after the silting of the existing reservoirs including Basha Dam. IRSA demand of 22 maf of water cannot be met without Katzarah Dam.

The huge demand of 22 maf of storage cannot be met because there is no dam site on Kabul river in Pakistan, no dam sites on Jehlum and Chenab Rivers and no mega storage on the Indus, except Basha and Katzarah. This means Pakistan has no mega storage dam sites besides Basha and Katzarah. The Bunji Dam, the Dassu Dam and the Munda Dam are power dams with nominal storage capacity. The off channel Akhori Dam is declared as infeasible by Dr Pieter Leiftnick in 1968 but WAPDA sticks to the infeasible project. Kalabagh Dam is made politically controversial by WAPDA, and technically controversial by the Kalabagh Dam Consultants who did not agree to the wrong hydraulic design of restricted mid-level silt sluicing imposed by WAPDA in the wrong TOR on the Consultants. Moreover, Kalabagh Dam will produce poor hydropower generation due to wrong hydraulic design therefore WAPDA directed the Consultants to provide compensatory installation of 2000 MW of Thermal power plant in support of hydropower, that is mockery of professional planning. Those who recommend Kalabagh, Akhori and Munda Dams have no knowledge of their feasibility status, and their multipurpose functions, and are unaware of the three Savior dams of Pakistan. A 250 feet high Akhori Dam is declared infeasible by Dr Pieter Lieftnick in1968 due to weak foundation and for many other reasons. It also involves raising Tarbela Dam by 15 feet.

Indian Water aggression to control Rabi flows of the Indus, Jehlum, and Chanab Rivers to turn Indus Basin Irrigation System as non-perennial

Refer to US Senator John Kerry report that “India has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moments in the growing season”. John Kerry has said, India built 32 dams where as other reports say 81 dams. Considering only 32 dams on our rivers, India would approximately usurp by holding at least 30 maf of our live storage, and about 10 maf of dead storage. This will have devastating effect on Rabi crop in Pakistan as our Rabi water requirements are about 36 maf. This means Chenab and Jehlum Rivers flow to Pakistan would almost be dry. Rabi and early Kharif crops would totally suffer as we have no storage to meet water requirements for Rabi crop. India also proposed to build 12 dams on Kabul River.  Katzarah Dam is the only solution to remove Rabi water crisis, and meet this devastating challenge to avoid famine and hunger.

 Pakistan Indus Waters Commissioner was unaware while India built 32 dams if not 81. There were no efforts to watch Indian activities for years. It is vital that the Indus Waters Commissioner head quarter should be shifted to Islamabad for a watch by the Ministry. The damage is done by India, but damage done, and damage yet to be done, would be by WAPDA by recommending infeasible Kalabagh, infeasible Akhori and power Dam Munda. Kalabagh and Akhori are infeasible dams. They are not the solution. Munda is single purpose power dam. Anybody who wants to know and seek advice should come to me. I give open invitation to all engineers in national interest for preparing a plan and policy for optimum development of water and hydropower. WAPDA is warned not to commit blunder after blunder to create crises after crises and now the nation faces hunger threat as reported by International organization.

 The Ministry should ask WAPDA to reply to these crisis creating issues

Can WAPDA advise the Government where to create 22 maf of storage water demanded by IRSA to implement Water Accord and remove acute shortage of water and hydropower? Let WAPDA name the dams with storage capacities, their life spans and feasibility status besides their functions. Has WAPDA any plan to control the rapid silting of reservoirs as it is feared the Indus basin irrigation system may turn non-perennial with-in 80 years due to silting of all reservoirs? Has WAPDA any drainage plan to save the Indus basin from increasing salinity and sodicity due one million small tube wells injecting about 350 million tons of injurious salt from the groundwater drainage effluent in to the fertile lands each year? The use of saline drainage effluent for irrigation is prohibited under the drainage Act but WAPDA did not object to this practice and failed to provide fresh water. Has WAPDA any Water shed Management plan to control silt in the Indus River. The lands in the Indus basin are turning saline and saline sodic gradually and invisibly. This would render the Indus basin infertile and cause famine and hunger. It is surprising Why WAPDA failed to locate the multipurpose Guroh Dop Dam lying only 7 miles upstream of the single purpose Munda Dam that is only meant for hydropower generation?                  

           

Please refer to the daily DAWN dated September 23, 2011, under the title “15000                                                                               MW Dam shelved by WAPDA”. The shelving of Katzarah by WAPDA shows its obstinacy in spite of no storage dam sites in Pakistan to support Irrigation System to produce food except Basha Dam and Katzarah Dam. WAPDA has ignored the unique and multipurpose 35 maf Katzarah Dam for petty environmental reason that some area would be submerged. Please note that Basha will silt up with in 80 years then there would be no storage dam site in Pakistan to support the Indus basin Irrigation system. WAPDA must indicate which dams are proposed to be included in its vision programme? It is a matter of life and death. The water situation would not improve even after the construction of Basha Dam as the existing reservoirs gross storage would silt up by 7.0 maf. Basha storage is only 6.0 maf. Therefore the building of 35-maf Katzarah is unavoidable. It is in fact the Savior dam of Pakistan.

It seems WAPDA has no foresight to foresee all this. It only knows to create controversies, like in Kalabagh Dam and now in the unique Katzarah Dam-- the “savior dam of Pakistan”. Katzarah Dam is recommended by Nisar Memon Parliamentry Committee and by AGN Abbassi Technical Committee besides the Government of Sindh that asked for Katzarah Dam construction. Refer to The News dated June 30, 2009. It appears there is no one to supervise WAPDA working that ruined the country due to its inefficiency and lack of planning of technically sound projects.

In spite of enough water and excellent fertile land, Pakistan is among the most hungry nations. The International Food Policy Research Institute fired warning shot at Pakistan, classifying it as a state that faces “serious hunger threat”. The institute said Pakistan is the only one country in the world that does not have any Federal body dealing with food issues. It said food security is not an exclusively agriculture phenomenon. It further said Pakistan needs 500,000 tons additional wheat every year to feed its ever-increasing population. It is surprising that the cropping area has been stuck with no increase in the last many decades. Pakistan can increase cultivable area by 100 per cent if Katzarah Dam is built. This dam will irrigate the vast Kachi plain of Baluchistan. WAPDA proved technically incapable as it unsuccessfully and wrongly executed Kachi canal alignment two times.

   

Due to shortage of funds, it may be considered to postpone the construction of Munda Dam and Basha Dam and go first for building the long term Katzarah Dam and the short term Raised Barrage on emergency basis. This may be difficult but the situation demands it.

Single-minded WAPDA tries to create another controversy on Katzarah Dam to misguide the Government and create fears in the minds of the local people

WAPDA’s stubborn attitude in ignoring Katzarah Dam is anti development and non-professional as it has not pointed a single technical drawback in it. WAPDA is exploiting and using minor environmental matter to shelve the 35-maf Katzarah dam capable of producing 15,000 MW of hydropower. Moreover, Katzarah will act as Water shed Management Dam to prevent silt from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley that rapidly depletes reservoirs due to silting. The Ministry of Water and Power is requested to make an inquiry why WAPDA initiated infeasible mega projects of drainage, storage, and canal that failed or are made controversial like KBD and now Katzarah. WAPDA would ruin the development of the country, cause hunger, famine, power riots and revolution. The ridiculous reasons given by WAPDA to shelve Katzarah Dam are as follows:

WAPDA said that Katzarah Dam if built would submerge population of Skardu, houses, shops, hospitals, schools, graveyard, mosques, shingrila Motel, 40 Kilometers road. It said, Katzarah Dam will have negative effect on Satpara Dam and on the archaeological sites, forts etc. The air strip will also come under water. All these are funny arguments to oppose Katzarah Dam. WAPDA ignored the unlimited benefits of the Savior Dam- like the unique Katzarah that solves all water, power, food, and sediment issues. The minor environmental aspect may be weighed with the colossal prosperity that Katzarah would bring besides giving protection against famine, hunger, flood devastation, and remove water and power shortage besides preventing the rapid silting of reservoirs and country wide power riots.

Looking to a dozen of water and power problems becoming more and more serious day by day, it becomes direly essential that Water Wing of WAPDA be shifted to Islamabad as did IRSA. WAPDA failed to work independently. WAPDA alone with one Member cannot solve these gigantic and complicated issues under a non professional Chairman. It needs a set up like IRSA. WAPDA needs close cooperation and coordination with IRSA who has 5 high ranking Members, the Planning Commission, the Ministry of Water and Power, Ministry of Agriculture, and other expertise in the field. Moreover, Chairman WAPDA, as per IRSA Act Section 4(9) is ex-officio Member IRSA. As such, he is required to be a Water Resources Engineer governing a huge professional organization. This is the reason to make him Member IRSA to contribute. The non-professional Chairman WAPDA never attended IRSA meetings that is in violation of the IRSA Act. All this shows governance failure. Moreover, corruption has diverted attention from professionalism to monetary gain.

It is not the duty of WAPDA to shelve a mega project as infeasible or feasible on its own. WAPDA duty is to investigate both technical as well as environmental aspects of the project. WAPDA has not investigated the technical aspects of the unique Katzarah Dam besides the other two savior dams. WAPDA is fanning minor environmental aspect, misguiding and befooling the people and the Government. It is for the Government to meet water and power needs of the country. It is for the Government to make decision on technical merits to build or not to build a dam. In case of Katzarah, WAPDA exaggerated the minor environmental aspect of the project. WAPDA is either unaware or shuts its eyes to the unique, multipurpose, numerous benefits of Katzarah Dam. These facts show WAPDA’s recommendation are one sided, wrong, and unreliable. It also shows professional dishonesty. WAPDA basically is a contracting agency and not planning agency. In case of KBD, WAPDA forced a wrong TOR on the Kalabagh Consultants that created political and technical controversies that destroyed Pakistan by a 47 years long status quo in not building dams that resulted in crippling load shedding and devastating floods of 2010. It will now cause food crises. The power crises may touch 9,000 MW short fall. Katzarah is the answer for removing these crisis.

 I hear, out of frustration some advocates are planning to approach the Supreme Court under Article 38 of the Constitution to take suitable action against Government organizations for failure to check floods, procure food, and generate power that caused crippling load shedding. The global Hunger index 2010 developed by the International Food Policy Research Institute declared Pakistan as a State that faces “serious hunger threat”. Pakistan has not developed its natural resources to produce food and generate power to end load shedding and remove the fear of hunger. It is the right time for the Government to declare the construction of the three Savior Dams and create a name in the history.