India built 32 dams to prevent Rabi supplies to Pakistan and Pakistan lost 7.0 maf of storage due to silting of Tarbela and Mangla Dams
The consequences would be turning the Indus Basin Irrigation System non-perennial
India brewing for water war by violating IWT and silting of reservoirs turned IWT inefficacious
Pakistan lethargically failed in watching India who freely violated the Indus Waters Treaty by building dozens of mega dams on all the three Western Rivers and their tributaries in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan is unaware how many storage dams India built in the past 45 years?
This information is vital to know how much gross storage, live storage and dead storage India created on our Western Rivers in gross violation of the Indus Waters Treaty? According to newspapers, India built 81 to more than 100 dams. This information is neither confirmed nor denied. The negligence not to watch the implementation of the Indus Waters Treaty, not knowing even the numbers of dams is a crime against the nation, because it has deprived the nation of its water resource to produce food for the nation as canal irrigation system will become non-perennial for loss of Rabi storage. This negligence is an invitation to the enemy for absolute surrender. India took benefit of this negligence and built 32 dams as reported by Senator John Kerry in 45 years creating huge live storage.
India plans to stop Rabi water supplies to Pakistan to cause famine, death and genocde
According to Senator John Kerry report to the US Senate, India built 32 dams that include mega dams. The report said; “India has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moment in the growing season”.
This fact is extremely dangerous and highly destructive for the Canal Irrigation System in the Indus Basin as Pakistan will not get water at critical moment in the growing season of Rabi. The Canal System will turn dry or non-perennial during the Rabi crop growing season and will not be able to produce food for the growing population. John Kerry factual statement to the Senate Committee of USA is indication that India acquired the ability to wage a silent water war on Pakistan as it has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moment in the growing season. This violates the IWT. Similarly, India plans to build 12 dams on Kabul River for Afghanistan to stop Rabi flow to Pakistan from the Western side. It is two front assault on Pakistan to create water shortage. India is using water as a weapon of mass destruction against Pakistan for the purpose of genocide. India has acquired the means of genocide for which it violated the IWT. This must be brought to the notice of the Security Council by the Government of Pakistan before India stops Rabi flow.
Stoppage of Rabi water supplies will create famine, hunger and death of population. This is the worst form of genocide against a nation. This must be prevented to avoid war that will be destructive for both countries and may become World War III.
Atomic bombing on Japan killed 0.25 million people. In conventional wars, the number of casualties is only in few thousands but free nuclear water war would kill nearly 180 million people of Pakistan and one billion Indians. War on water is far more devastating than the war on terror. Making Pakistan dry, by holding its water, the source of its survival, is genocidal, and great crime on humanity, besides violation of the Treaty. The Government of Pakistan must report to the United Nations, the Security Council besides the International Court of Justice, as it may lead to nuclear conflict.
Wrong partition of India, splitting the hydrological unit between two countries
All this dispute is created due to wrong partition of India. This is because the sources of water and the canal head works went to India in occupied Kashmir that belongs to Pakistan, but India captured the hydraulic source in Kashmir by force. India occupied Hydrabad, Junagarh and Manawadar states by force. Pakistan’s Indus basin has water rights for centuries. These water rights cannot be snatched because the country was wrongly partitioned. The partition should be redone by UN to defuse this matter as India will force famine on Pakistan. Let Pakistan raise the basic question of partition.
Excess storage by India violating the IWT rendering the Indus basin canal irrigation system non-parennial
Let us work out how much gross storage, live storage, and dead storage these 32 dams have created. As a Water Resources Engineer, and distinction holder in Dams and Reservoir Engineering, and the discoverer of 12 mega dams in Pakistan while in-charge of Dams Investigation Division (1959 to 1962), I estimate that these 32 dams must have created gross storage of about 40 maf. Out of this, 30 maf would be live storage, and about 10 maf as dead storage. No one in Pakistan could foresee this basic and devastating pivotal, excessive storage. This escaped their professional foresight, and intelligence. Pakistan must go to the court of law on the violation of this basic and pivotal matter of storage. This is because India is only allowed to create storage of 4.19 maf on run-of-the-river projects to produce hydropower. So far India violated the Treaty by creating excess storage of (30-4.19) = 25.81 maf. Many dams are still under construction including mega dams. This will create more storage to further aggravate the already critical situation by stopping the supply of water at the critical moment when water is most needed for growing food grains during Rabi.
I agree with the report of John Kerry. The Indian ability to store Rabi water is gradually brewing for nuclear war. India is bent upon creating optimum possible storage on the three Western Rivers and their tributaries using the full potential of the available slope, fall to tail. India is rapidly increasing storage by building more mega dams on the Western Rivers with the intension of creating famine.
The Rabi water requirements of Pakistan at present is about 36 maf. This may further increase. India would store more than this quantity that means to render the irrigation network-- the life-line of Pakistan dry for about 6 months a year. Pakistan will not be able to produce wheat to feed its people. This will create food crises, hunger and famine. This means India has the key to control the life and death of the people of Pakistan by using water as the weapon of mass destruction for genocide purpose.
What would Pakistan do under such famine inflicting situation causing genocide? The consequences would be creation of hunger, famine and death of nation of 180 million populations. The situation is also creating the possibility of nuclear war. This would destroy both Pakistan and India. It will pollute the earth’s environment and damage all neighboring countries who may also join war that may turn into World War Three. It will be the last war by human beings fought on earth. It is therefore of dire necessity that UN, and the Security Council may take up the case of intentional violation of the Treaty to cause genocide. India has not implemented the Treaty honestly. The permanent remedy lies in revising the partition of India by the UN in a way that the control of Pakistan water lies with Pakistan and not India.
The Kashmir dispute is lying with the UN for the last about 63 years unsolved. This must be expedited according to its resolution. Delay in justice creates more crimes. The water issue between Pakistan and India is like “climate change”, as it will affect the entire human beings on earth if nuclear war unfortunately takes place.
Water issue tied to the occupation of Kashmir requires permanent solution
to avoid nuclear conflict.
The permanent solution to the problem is to re-draw the India Pakistan boundary and nullify the unjust Red Cliff partition, unjustly giving the sources of water flowing into Pakistan, to India including surprisingly the canal head works. This was shear and clear injustice. Kashmir is the Muslim majority area, it must have come to Pakistan. India killed hundred thousands of Kashmiris who demanded freedom from India. India attacked Hydrabad, Junagarh and Manawadar and took over the territory. India has aggressive policy that may one day lead to nuclear war if other nations failed to take suitable action against India.
Silting of replacement storage of about 7.0 maf of Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs requires replenishment to keep continue IWT
The Indus Waters Treaty is based on Tarbela and Mangla reservoirs--the two replacement storage and the link canals built under the IWT. The replacement storage is created in lieu of the perennial water of the three Eastern river diverted by India due to wrong partition. The water from the three Eastern Rivers irrigated areas in Pakistan for centuries. Therefore two replacement storage dams and inter-river link canals were built to transfer water from the three Western River to the area irrigated by the three Eastern Rivers in Pakistan. The silting of reservoirs turned the IWT inefficacious and not workable as there is no replacement storage for diversion in to the link canals to feed the water deprived areas in Pakistan. There is no storage water for transfer to the area deprived of water by India due to wrong partition. This is yet another set-back that needs settlement. It requires India built a reservoir of 7.0 maf of water in Pakistan to replenish the lost storage on perennial basis. Justice is perennial storage, for perennial canal water. Alternately, India should restore water supply to the deprived area to 1947 position. It is for India to accept any of the two alternatives.
WAPDA obstinacy caused super floods of 2010 and never ending crippling load shedding
WAPDA punished Pakistan for not building the technically infeasible and politically controversial Kalabagh Dam by crippling load shedding and devastating super floods of 2010 that destroyed 22% of Pakistan creating food shortage and high prices of agricultural products. This was in spite of the fact that the feasibility report of Basha Dam was established in 1981. It is after 30 years that Basha is now being taken in hand for construction. WAPDA obstinacy is now shifted to ignore the unique, multipurpose Dam at Katzarah with storage capacity of 35 MAf and power generation potential of 15,000 MW, with additional benefits of flood control and silt control. It is surprising that WAPDA did not pointed out the spectacular Katzarah Dam located about 130 KM on the upstream of Basha Dam on the Indus to the Prime Minister during the groundbreaking of Basha. This shows WAPDA malice towards Katzarah Dam.
Water issue needs peaceful solutions as war is disastrous for both countries
Summing up the whole matter, the following issues are to be solved so that India and Pakistan live in peace with mutual respect and brotherhood.
* Who would replenish the storage lost in Tarbela and Mangla Dams built under the Treaty?
* Pakistan needs perennial storage for perennial canal water diverted by India, as a matter of rights. Alternately,
* if India refuses to build the replacement storage, then Pakistan water rights stays and as such, Eastern Rivers water diverted by India may be released and the canal head works be handed over to Pakistan for water watch and its regulation.
* India has silently started water war to cause famine in Pakistan while Pakistan was asleep.
* John Kerry report and its ensuing consequences may be studied, stating that India has acquired the ability to limit the supply of water at critical moment in the growing season. What would Pakistan do? Basha Dam, after 10 years of its completion, with storage of 6.4 maf, will not be able to make up the storage already lost to silting. Pakistan needs 4 dams of the capacity of Basha Dam by the year 2020. That much storage is not available. WAPDA is severely allergic to the unique 35 maf storage dam at Katzarah, generating 15,000 MW of hydropower, controlling super floods and prevent silt flow from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley. Katzarah if built will increase the life of Basha Dam from its estimated life of 80 years to 800 years. Let WAPDA inform names of dams, their storage, with power generation, and their feasibility status. IRSA demanded 22 maf of water. Which technically feasible dams would give this much storage? WAPDA should name these dams with storage capacities.
* Pakistan Indus Basin Irrigation system, the largest in the world, will be rendered dry for six month, as India will divert Rabi supplies by holding waters in dozens of reservoirs built by India in occupied Kashmir.
* India created 30 maf of live storage against the allowable of 4.19 maf. It is still creating more storage as mega dams are being built. The live storage may exceed 40 maf of Rabi season water. Pakistan is silent on this for being unaware.
* The matter may be taken up with the United Nations for violation of human rights. All humans are entitled to breath air, drink water and eat food. No one has the right to deny food and water. The water issue needs immediate solution to avoid nuclear war. One can do anything in self defense when aggressor attacks you to starve and die.
* Kashmir issue must be settled immediately as it is 63 years old dispute and is related to water issue. Justice delayed is justice denied and that may lead to nuclear conflict.
*Wrong partition of India be corrected and re-done. The sources of its water must be with Pakistan to avoid nuclear war. Occupied Kashmir is the hydraulic unit of the Indus basin Irrigation System. It cannot be separated.
* India has planned 12 dams on Kabul River for Afghanistan. Pakistan has no water treaty with Afghanistan. Khalid Aziz former Chief Secretary NWFP has prepared in great details vital technical information for Water Treaty with Afghanistan more than two years ago. Ministry of Water and Power may take action why such a treaty is delayed.
* What would happen to Water Accord? How would IRSA manage about 36 maf of water for the Rabi crop growing season? Who would plan to meet this shortage? IRSA or WAPDA or any other authority. Some members of IRSA claim that IRSA is only responsible to regulate and distribute available water and nothing more than that. This opinion needs clarification to define the responsibilities of IRSA under para 13 of the Water Accord. On the other hand, WAPDA is incapable to handle storage dams. IRSA services must be used after the clarification of para 13 of the Water Accord. Who would create storage to meet the demand of para 2, and implement paras 4, 5, 7, and para 14(e) of the Water Accord? Names of storage dams, their storage capacities, their feasibility status, and estimated life span may be announced by the planner.
* Government of Pakistan must take water storage issue in the light of IWT and John Kerry report with India and the United Nations. Pakistan must ask for the exact numbers of dams already built, under construction, and proposed to be built, from India, indicating their gross storage, live storage and dead storage to know the relevant data as required by the Treaty.
* Pakistan should propose some joint arrangement with India to ensure and release the established and rightful share of water flowing to Pakistan without interruption. It is necessary not to interrupt the supply of water to Pakistan at the critical moment in the growing season. This is in the interest of peace and the rights on water of Pakistan’s share.
Emergency steps by Pakistan to create storage, avoid all wastage of water and mitigate Indian interruption of the supply of water at critical moment in the growing season
It is direly essential that Pakistan must build Katzarah Dam, Guroh Dop Dam, Mirkhani Dam and the Raised barrage-cum-low dam at the tail end of the Indus River on war footings as already suggested by me.
Thanks to John Kerry for finding true facts about the Indus Waters Treaty while Pakistan was asleep. His findings have great meanings and consequences that clearly states that “India has acquired the ability to store enough water to limit the supply of water to Pakistan at critical moments in the growing season”. The report of John Kerry is information to the United States Senate of the consequences of such development that may lead to water war. Pakistan is still sleeping as it took no action on John Kerry report. I foresee food crisis is rapidly approaching. Water shortage and food shortage would add to power shortage. This will create bloody revolution in Pakistan. We have watched riots on power shortage, but riots on food shortage will be in the form of bloody revolution. India wants all this, as it has acquired the ability to do so. Pakistan must build Dams as proposed by me in this do or die situation. It is shocking WAPDA could not build the second dam on the Indus in 47 years, (37+10) as Basha will be completed in 10 years. God save Pakistan and its people from multiple crises. The future is gloomy and disastrous.
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