Global Warming to reduce 50 maf of the Indus River flow out of 142 maf

The emerging global warming is the greatest of all the water problems for irrigated agriculture in the Indus Basin to produce food for the fast growing population. It is a natural calamity caused due to the misuse of environment by mankind on earth. The average annual flow of the Indus River System is about 142 maf of water that would be reduced by one-third to about 92 maf after 2050. This means it will cause a shortage of about 50 maf of water annually due to the glacial retreat in the second half of the current century. This drastic reduction in run-off would require revolutionary improvement and modernization of the supply-based canal irrigation system to reduce water wastage and then use the 92 maf of water very efficiently to minimize the adverse effects of the shortage of water by global warming. Moreover, by the year 2050, the population of Pakistan would be about 35 crores. Therefore, the immediate implementation of integrated comprehensive water management (ICWM) with all its integral and vital components is of dire necessity.

The ICWM would help in the two most adverse phases of the global warming. The first phase would continue up to 2050 when there is glacial retreat causing super floods and flash floods. The second phase would start after 2050 in the second half of this century. In the second phase there would be about 35 to 40% shortage of river water.

Both the phases of global warming require immediate modernization and replacement of the 150 years old, wasteful, incompatible, obsolete supply-based canal irrigation system by the lined demand-based canal irrigation system. The canal system requires surface and sub-surface tile drainage for quick disposal of floodwater as well as to control salinity, sodicity and water logging. Moreover, the ICWM direly needs constructing huge and long life storage dam at Katzarah on the Indus, and Guroh Dop Dam at Panjkora River. It urgently needs to generate hydropower to operate the sprinkler and drip irrigation methods for economical and efficient use of water besides lifting water to irrigate higher lands.. There is urgent need to control silt flow by watershed management. Katzarah Dam is the vital and the integral component of ICWM to store 35-maf of floodwater. It would generate about 15,000 MW of hydropower, irrigate vast barren areas and regulate the highly erratic flow of the Indus. Katzarah would also function as carryover dam, replacement dam and as watershed management dam. Moreover, Katzarah Dam has the unique feature of controlling silt in the Skardu valley to prolong the life of reservoirs. The source of silt in the Indus River water is the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley. Katzarah Reservoir would stop this erosion to function as watershed management dam.

Global warming of earth is due to pollution, over population, industrial waste, wars, carbon dioxide emission, deforestation and the extensive use of chemicals. These factors are fast destroying the environment. This will have far-reaching adverse effects on human beings and on all living things. It will have adverse effect on the Earth's atmosphere. As a result, it will affect the climate and the weather on earth. Moreover, it would severely disturb the hydrological cycle and dramatically decrease the river flow by about  40% in the second phase of global warming. Sever wet cycle would be followed by dry cycle besides changes in temperature and humidity. All these climatic changes and the reduced water availability would have serious effects on irrigated agriculture, crop growth, crop yield and food production. The only solution to face these calamities is to implement ICWM according to its true definition otherwise the people would starve to death and the Indus basin would turn as desolate wasteland.

For about the next 40 years till 2050, the river flows would increase due to glacier melt. This will cause flash floods and super floods with very heavy sediment load in river run-off. This would rapidly silt up the reservoirs. Besides this, heavy floods would cause extensive damages to infrastructures, irrigated agriculture and property. The surface drainage problem that is already serious is due to the complete blockage of the natural surface drains and their waterways that are encroached in violation of the Canal and Drainage Act of 1887. These need restoration. To control super floods, large capacity storage dams and efficient network of surface drainage system is pre-requisite. The survival of irrigated agriculture requires surface and sub-surface tile drainage beside storage dams and the demand-based irrigation system. The planners must plan for one hundred years ahead to combat the two phases of wet and dry cycles of global warming. Each phase is of about 50 years. The main problem is to produce food for 32 crores of population by the year 2050 and to feed 65 crores of people by the year 2100. The implementation of the ICWM would take at 30 years if started right now. It is therefore suggested to holdback all less important programs and give top priority to implement the vital components of the ICWM.

The UNDP released report in 2006, warning the people and the Government of Pakistan stating that "This major permanent reduction in run-off will have enormous consequences for livelihoods in the Indus Basin and for Pakistan's food supplies, observed by Human Development". Irrigated agriculture would be hard hit by global warming. Therefore there is immediate need to prepare Water Policy to preserve water and a Master Plan to implement it to meet food needs in the near future for the fast growing population. Pakistan would not be running out of water but it is definitely running out of time to tackle the critical problems presented by water stress and water scare conditions. Even if 95 maf of water is available against the present one of 142 maf, and if this is efficiently and economically used, by modern irrigation methods, it would serve the purpose of feeding the growing population. Under the present circumstance, about 82 maf of water out of 142 maf is wasted due to seepage from the wasteful and obsolete canal irrigation system and during floods. This wastage of water comes to 60%. It means only (142- 82)=60 maf of water is used by the existing irrigated agriculture in traditional and wasteful manner. If most of the 82 maf of water losses are saved by ICWM then, the adverse effect of global warming causing shortage of water due to reduced river flow could be balanced by the modernization of canal system preventing wastage of water and by building dams.

           

The grave situation can be handled provided ICWM is implemented in time. I wish the President pay attention to avoid the incoming catastrophe of shortage of water. I hereby warn that the global melt is emerging as the greatest threat to human sustenance and to food production.