I being water resource engineer would like to offer comments on chapter 6 (water) and chapter 9 (energy) of the vision 2030 with the intention to point out chronic problems, and their solutions. There is dire for to improve the energy and water concepts for vision-2030. The chapter 6 of the vision deals with Agriculture Growth: Food, Water and Land. The vision-2030 should therefore thoroughly dealt with the existing problems of water, land, irrigated agriculture, drainage of land, the failure of SCARPs and NDP, the use of injurious saline drainage effluent and food production besides hydropower generation. It should have suggested how to stop land degradation due to salinity, sodicity and water logging to reclaim vast saline and saline-sodic land as SCARPs and NDP failed. The use of saline drainage for irrigation is highly injurious. The removal and control of salinity requires sub-surface tile drainage but that is ignored. The injurious saline drainage effluent is harmful for irrigation but that is retained in the ground and used for the irrigation of land. This wrong practice must stop.
It is a dilemma to solve whether the evacuation of drainage effluent by tile drainage is vital to reclaim land and remove salinity or continue the use of injurious saline drainage effluent for the irrigation of land to spoil it. Both the processes are conflicting. More over, storage dams to store 18 maf of water should have been identified by the vision. This is not done. Watershed management should have been planned to avoid rapid silting of reservoirs. The need for integrated comprehensive water management with all its components should have been emphasized for implementation to save about 60% water wastage. The vital replacement of 150 years old, obsolete, incompatible and wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system by demand-based canal system is ignored to save massive wastage of water. The solutions to all these serious issues of water, land, food, irrigated agriculture and power are not indicated in the vision-2030 before trying to achieve the objectives of agriculture growth. More over, it is not specified in the vision where to build dams to store 18 maf of water and how to generate 162,000 MW of power as given in the vision 2030.. Refer to page 55, para 6.3 and page 81 of the vision- 2030. It is not specified how to reclaim saline land to stop land deterioration after the failure of SCARPs and NDP.
Besides the above, the vision-2030 has not indicated the calamitous effects of global warming on irrigated agriculture and food production as about 40% of 142 maf of surface water is likely to be reduced due to glacial melting in the second phase.
Before detailed views on water, land and food are given, I would first offer my views on Energy chapter 9 of the vision-2030 as Dr Asif and Mr Zulfiqar have already offered their views in letters to the Editor DAWN dated 24 and 27 August 2007. Dr Asif termed the vision-2030 as erroneous, inaccurate and perilous that needs consideration.
My first question is how would the vision-2030 achieve the power generation target of 162,000 MW projected in the Energy Security Plan 2005 as mentioned on page 81 of chapter 9 of the vision 2030? The installed power production today from hydropower, oil, gas, bio-fuel and nuclear is only 17352 MW. Out of this, the hydropower is only 6493 MW. The power shortage estimated by the year 2010 is 5100 MW and the requirement by the year 2030 is 162,000 MW. The country is already faced by sever, paralyzing and unending power crisis as there is shortage of about 5000 MW of power.
It is surprising the vision-2030 has ignored the environment friendly hydropower potential on the Indus and its tributaries that could generate about 50,000 MW by the construction of dams. A dam is a multipurpose structure and power is generated as a by-product that costs very low. The purchase of power under emergency at exorbitant cost is a proof of poor power planning. The Government pays the IPPs at the rate of Rs 9.72 or US cents 16.2 per kwh. WAPDA produces from its own thermal power plant from gas turbine at Kotri at the rate of Rs 2.95 or US cents 4.92 per kwh. Against all this, the cost of hydropower generation during 2005-2006 is Rs 0.72 or US cents 1.16 per kwh per unit. The benefit of cheap hydropower is not passed on to the consumers. This shows wrong policy, poor planning and high cost of industrial production.
The cost of hydropower and thermal power generation per kwh is in the ratio of Rs 0.72 : 9.72. It shows thermal power generation is 13.5 times more costly than the hydropower. Why then the vision-2030 has ignored the generation of hydropower by not proposing multipurpose dams to remove the sever water and power crises and meet the vision-2030 power and water objectives? Unfortunately, WAPDA did not build a dam after Tarbela in 1974 that is 36 years ago. This is the basic reason for power and water crises. It must be understood that dam is a multipurpose structure that stores water for irrigation of land to produce food, generate very cheap hydropower as byproduct, control floods and avoid wastage of water to sea, regulate river flow and stop silt flow by functioning as watershed management structure. Besides this, dam is a vital component of integrated comprehensive water management that saves all waste flows from the obsolete and wasteful supply-based canal irrigation system besides wastage of floodwater to sea.
The unique Katzarah Dam has the potential to generate about 15,000 MW of hydropower with the maximum height to store 35 maf of water. In case a lower height is fixed to store 25 maf of water, the hydropower generation would correspondingly be reduced to 10,000 MW. The cost of Katzarah Dam would be about $ 8 billion. Katzarah Dam site on the Indus was discovered by me during 1961-62 along with other 10 dam sites while incharge of Dams Investigations. Later on, in 1968, Dr Pieter Lieftnick head of the World Bank Team confirmed Katzarah Dam site. Katzarah Dam would stop silt erosion from the highly erodible soil of Skardu valley that is the source of silt flow in the Indus water.
On my initiation even the President desired to carry out the pre-feasibility report of Katzarah Dam. Besides this, Nisar Memon Committee whom I gave technical help directed WAPDA to prepare the feasibility of Katzarah Dam and WAPDA promised to prepare it by September 2005. All this was ignored.
Hydropower generation
Surprisingly, the colossal power requirement of 162,000 MW including the hydropower component appears to be based on the 5 ineffective, infeasible and controversial dams included in the vision-2016. The collective power generation from the five dams is only 5900 MW. Kurram Tangi Dam with 50 MW power and Munda Dam with 740 MW power are local dams. The dependable hydropower from controversial Kalabagh Dam is only 1300 MW after lowering the reservoir retention level from RL 925 to 915. Astonishingly, the hydropower of Kalabagh Dam, was supported by 2000 MW of thermal power plant. Similarly, Dr Pieter Lieftnick rejected the 250 feet high Akhori Dam due to very weak foundation besides other reasons. It had no power component. Later on, WAPDA arbitrarily raised its height to 420 feet through local consultants on weak foundation to store more water and generate 600 MW of power. To fill Akhori reservoir, the height of Tarbela Dam shall have to be raised from 1550 feet to 1565 feet that is questionable. More over, a link canal to carry 80,000 cusecs of water shall have to be constructed across the country to run for two months hardly in a year and then remain dry. The only undisputed dam is Basha that would generate 4500 MW of power.
One can say the vision-2030 is blurred as far as energy, water, land, drainage and food is concerned. The rest of development in the country depends on the development of water and power as that is the economic base for prosperity. At the same time it is very strange that vision -2030 is silent on global warming, glacier melting and climate change as about 40% of 142 maf of surface water is likely to be reduced that comes to a massive quantity of 52 maf. The power/energy is a vital input of irrigated agriculture. Therefore the scarce water should be used efficiently by using power to lift water to higher land, run tube wells and use it for sprinkler and drip irrigation methods to produce food for the rapidly growing population of 32 crores by the year 2035. For all the water and power chaos, WAPDA is responsible. To improve the working efficiency, WAPDA should be bifurcated and water and power separated. WAPDAs head quarter should be shifted to Islamabad like of IRSA for greater cooperation with the Planning Commission and the Ministries of Water and Power besides the Ministry of Agriculture. The vision-2030 requires Master Planning in water, land, food, and energy sections to mitigate the calamitous effects of global warming (first and second phases). Chapters 6 and 9 require intelligent preparation with revolutionary planning concepts. The unique Katzarah on the Indus and excellent, multipurpose Gurah Dop Dam on Panjkora River are direly needed to implement vision 2030.
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