WATER CRISIS CAN TRIGGER NUCLEAR WAR IN SOUTH ASIA

Water used by India as weapon of starvation

India has built hundreds of dams on six rivers and on their tributaries in occupied Kashmir to use water as a weapon of starvation. The primary objective of dams building in occupied Kashmir is to stop water flow during winter to Pakistan for its Rabi crop. India has turned Chenab River and Jehlum River almost as seasonal rivers or non-perennial in winter. All this is done in violation of the Indus Waters Treaty. The spirit of the Treaty is NOT to stop winter supplies to Pakistan. The second objective is to use water and hydropower resources of occupied Kashmir in Indian territory. 

 The wanton construction of dams by India on Pakistani rivers and its subsequent impact on Pakistan's agri-based economy is shear violation of the Treaty. The violations of the Treaty by India is the turning of the water crisis into a war, which can escalate into a nuclear exchange, if both the nuclear powers fail to find out amicable solution. The water dispute between both the countries must be settled according to the UN resolution.

The growing scarcity of water in adverse proportion with fast increasing population in the world has emerged as the biggest challenge for the modern nation-states. Contrary to the states, which have geographical limitations, water is an ambient resource that neither knows nor respects human boundaries. The most cordial and cooperative neighboring nations have even found it difficult to achieve mutually acceptable arrangements to govern their trans-boundary surface waters. The water conflicts become intense when nations are located in arid regions or in the areas where under ground water are mainly brackish.

In this case, the water crisis is created by the wrong and unjust partition of India by handing the Kashmir, the Muslim majority area, the origin of six rivers, to India by the British Government. The UN has passed a resolution for referundom confirms that injustice has been done while portioning India. Even the Head works of Pakistani canals went to India.

South Asia is a region where growing scarcity of water resources, increasing population accompanied by poor water management has resulted in an increasing demand for water resources. The rising shortage of water has led to the desire for control of water assets, which in turn has become a ground for breeding conflicts. There are three trans-boundary river basins in South Asia, which include the Ganges-Brahmaputra- Meghna (GBM) river basin (largest in South Asia, which spans Bangladesh, Bhutan, China, India and Nepal), the Indus river basin (consists of Afghanistan, China, India, Nepal and Pakistan) and the Helmand River Basin which covers Afghanistan, Pakistan and parts of Iran.

The two nuclear neighbors, Pakistan and India share the waters of Indus basin that flows in the Himalayan mountain passes through the state of Jammu and Kashmir and the arid lands of Punjab and Sindh, empties into the Arabian Sea. The quest for maximum utilization of existing water resources slid both the countries into a conflict immediately after the partition. The geography of partition was such that the source-rivers of the Indus basin were in India and held Kashmir. Pakistan felt its livelihood threatened by the prospect of Indian control over the tributaries that fed water into the Pakistani portion of the basin. The seed of conflict was sown intentionally by wrong partition of India by the British Government. This was inhuman and cruel as the life of 1.5 billion people was exposed to nuclear war besides damaging the earth environment. The only solution to avoid nuclear war is to implement UN resolution on Kashmir. Britain is guilty for all this wrong and unjust partion. 

During the first year of partition, the waters of the Indus were apportioned by the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 4, 1948. However, neither side was willing to compromise its respective position. India stood for a new system of water allocations while Pakistan felt that its share of waters should be based on pre-partition distribution as half of West Punjab was under threat of desertification. In the pre-partition period, the area of Pakistani Punjab had an uninterrupted access to the waters of all the six rivers. After many years of negotiations, both the countries agreed on a formula of water sharing in 1960 with the patronage of World Bank, which is called Indus Waters Treaty.

Though, the Indus Waters Treaty has sustained three major wars and various crisis situations between both the countries but the violation of the treaty through exploitation of its provisions by India have exacerbated the water crisis in Pakistan. India has violated the Indus Waters treaty provisions by putting the water inflow below 55000 cusec in Chenab River at Maralla Head works. On the other hand, Pakistan relies on the Indus River and its tributaries for almost half of its irrigation supplies, and to generate up to half of its electricity. India is constructing three major hydro projects on Indus River namely Nimoo Bazgo power project, Dumkhar project and Chutak project which have also storage capacity (violation of the IWT). These projects, will hold dead and live storage and will reduce the river water supply to the agriculture lands in Khyber Pakhtunkha and Sindh provinces. About half of Pakistan water requirements come from Chenab River and Jehlum River. India would almost stop winter supplies from these two rivers. This will subject Pakistan to sever water crisis and deprived it of Rabi crops.

Almost 80% of Pakistan's agriculture is dependent on irrigation. Many of Pakistan's industries are agro-based such as the textiles industry. Moreover, 70% of Pakistan's food needs are fulfilled domestically. Thus, an interruption of water supply would cause severe domestic problems ranging from political, social to economic in Pakistan. Several rounds of talks have commenced between both the countries on the water issue between the Indus Water Commissioners and Foreign Secretaries of both the countries. However, India is continuing its hydropower projects in occupied Kashmir. Pakistan is currently facing food insecurity and the situation will be worsened in the near future if the water availability to the agriculture sector is reduced. The water shortage will destroy the natural habitat and climate of river deltas inside Pakistan besides lowering the underground water table.

The water crisis will not only affect the economy but it has social and political implications for the Pakistani society. Since the issue of water shortage has surfaced with its severity, the mistrust among the federative units has increased and water distribution among the provinces according to their demands is becoming a hectic affair for the incumbent government with each passing year. The farmers associations are already continuing their protests in different parts of the Punjab and Sindh provinces against the non-availability of sufficient water for their crops. It is my assertion if the crisis further escalated the protests could shape an agitation and major law and order challenge for the government.

The climate change and global warming have also affected the catchments areas or river sources situated in the Himalayan region, causing 40 to 50% less water availability in the rivers. India's construction of dams will further reduce the flow of rivers towards Pakistan approximately to 50%. Occupied Kashmir is the major source of river waters flowing to the lower riparian (Pakistan) areas. That is why the importance of Kashmir for Pakistan is not only restricted to the ideological affiliation with the people of the territory but it is also because of rivers flowing from the valley are the lifeline of it's economy. Both the nuclear powers have already fought two major wars and a limited war in Kargil over the unresolved dispute of Kashmir. The possession of nuclear capability by both the countries has endangered the peace of the region as any future conflict can trigger all out war or perhaps a nuclear war. The only remedy to the 64 years old dispute is to hand over occupied Kashmir to Pakistan. It is Muslim majority area. India has forcibly captured Hyderabad Daccan, Junagarh and Manawadar states. This proves India is aggressive. This attitude can lead to war.

The water crisis can be the potential cause for any future conflict between both the countries.

There may be armed conflict with India if peaceful negotiations fail to yield results.

 One should realize the gravity of the water crisis and its implications for the regional peace. There is need to assess the existing water treaty and its loopholes besides its implications for Pakistan's agrarian economy. We should highlight the water crisis as a major source of conflict in future, threatening the survival of millions of people in the region in case of nuclear exchange.